Mount Joy Snowman

Man you guys have the board popping this morning! But yes you nailed it. I bottomed out at 56 last night, MDT 60.

I’m at 66. Just sitting here with a nice Manhattan watching the Olympics. It’s funny you talk about wanting to move there, as we know multiple people who live down there and many more who are planning to go and they all love DeSantis. Florida isn’t for me though. I’m a PA boy born and bred. Almost all of our family and good friends are here so I don’t see us ever leaving.

Could not disagree with you more. Guy is brilliant, always a step ahead, and stands up for his people. Big reason why Florida is thriving. He’ll win reelection in a landslide. America’s governor!

First EF3 in history for PA. Now, there have been many F3s, most recently in 2004, but this is the first since we went to the enhanced Fujita Scale. Bit of semantics but still cool.

Damn, I mean, this was good, real good.

Some more from Nanty Glo, look out for those tipping port'o'johns! 0612 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 N NANTY-GLO 40.48N 78.84W 07/29/2021 CAMBRIA PA EMERGENCY MNGR BLEACHERS AND A PORTABLE TOILET WHERE KNOCKED OVER AT BLACKLICK VALLEY HIGH SCHOOL.

ha very nice, the 'ol high terrain

I ended up with a monster total of .03" yesterday *yawn*, but it seems like parts of the eastern and western sides of the state saw some severe activity. Check out this video from Blacklick High School near Nanty Glo. I have a buddy who went there.

Yep we called it. What looked to be a day with a lot of severe potential really turned into a dud around here, although we had a feeling that could be the case relatively early this morning. I’ll check the gauge in the morning but can’t imagine I got more than a few hundredths. Looks like the extreme eastern and western parts of the state got in on some wild action though. Just an odd weather day all the way around.

Yeah we certainly could get split here by the main tranches of rain, and to be honest, that's what much of the guidance had been hinting at the last 12 hours or so. Just not my summer, guess that's what I deserve for choosing a handle name of Snowman *shrug*

Yeah this doesn't scream much severe potential to me, but I've been wrong before....

Yes you really can, it's subtle but it's there. Also a thicker band moving in from the west though. You can also clearly see the multiple layers of clouds moving in all directions, evidence of the directional shear that's in place.

Agreed, many of the metrics are in place, and solidly so. This has almost all the ingredients you look for. With that said, you'd still like to see a little sun at some point to ripen things up.

Sure is but if you put it in motion it's actually thickening not thinning. Tough to say how we'll look in a few hours.

As others have mentioned, cloud cover only seems to be thickening, hmmmmmmm, we shall see but the visible satellite in motion is not overly promising......

Could be an action packed day for some. Others have pointed out SPC's stance. CTP has some interesting thoughts as well....... The conditional risk of severe storms ramps up this afternoon and evening (2-8PM most likely timing) with SPC upgrading the south- central and southeast zones to an Enhanced risk (level 3 out of 5). The upper pattern will be characterized by a broad trough/cyclonic flow aloft with embedded MCV translating east- southeastward from the southern Great Lakes through the northern Mid Atlantic region. 29/00Z HREF mean shows 40-50kt deep-layer shear profiles in place later this afternoon with 0-3km SRH values 200-400+ m2s2. The main uncertainty driving the conditional nature of this potentially significant severe wx event continues to center around the degree of destablization, as cloud cover from upstream convective complex may limit heating/instability to some extent. The latest HRRR and other CAMs show pcpn from this feature reaching into the western zones between 15-17Z. Assuming sufficient CAPE can be realized in the warm sector, the environment will be supportive of some supercells that may evolve into bowing structures as storms track northwest to southeast during the afternoon and evening. While the primary threat appears to be damaging winds and possibly some hail, low level hodographs are supportive of an isolated tornado risk especially in the vicinity of sfc warm front over south- central PA. This risk is highlighted by a 5% tornado probability. MaxT will be a few to several degrees lower vs. yesterday in the low 70s north to lower 80s south. The relatively cooler temps combined with advection of rich low level moisture (near-70F dewpoint air) suggests lower LCL heights which are an important delineator for tornadoes in central PA. Despite PW values around 1-1.5 inches supporting brief heavy downpours/rain rates, recent dryness in the past 7 days along with fairly progressive storm motions should confine flooding risk to marginal (level 1 out of 4) with the highest probs/lowest FFG in the NC/NE mtns. The severe threat should end by 8PM give or take, but showers could linger in spots for most of the night. MinT will trend a few degrees warmer overall with the largest positive 24hr deltas over the middle and upper Susquehanna Valley. Post-frontal NW flow should align low clouds upslope along the western Alleghenies into early Friday morning.

This is true, very very true. I have seen many a good man go down from getting too bold with the douple IPAs on a hot and humid day.

You're hearing that cell over by Red Lion.

I believe it's the same alcohol content as Miller and Coors and it's cheaper. Heck, for kegs it's WAY cheaper, and let's be honest, it basically tastes the same as Silver Bullet. Keith Stone! Remember those commercials? The international symbol for light beer should just be a man pissing, tell me I'm wrong.....

Okay boys, I'm ready for what's about to come my way......here we go -- Key Light all the way! bahahahaha......Seriously though if I'm outside at a party, pool, tailgate, boat, etc. it's light beer all the way for me -- Miller, Coors, or Key. Now, I do enjoy a good lager or pale ale from time to time but nothing overly hoppy or fruity or hazy or dark or anything for that matter, just a good crisp plain beer. With all that said, I'm more of a whiskey guy. Whiskey'n'ginger has been my drink of choice for at least 15 years now, and I do love me a good 'ol fashioned or Manhattan. In fact , all this talk and pap may just have to go get the Bullet Rye tehe.

You and your wind, love it haha.

Goofus back to living up to its moniker. Well I'll be a monkey's uncle, just checked the station and it appears I hit 89 earlier today, likely not gonna reach 90 but 'twas a close call after all, aint it @Itstrainingtime

Well what do you know, looks like Harrisburg/West Shore about to get smoked by a nice little cell yet again. Shocking, I know.

Yeah I’m only at 84 as well despite full sun all day, although there are plenty of cotton balls starting to form in the sky now. I’m thinking it’s that slight northerly breeze component that is keeping things in check.

Yes thanks that could be helpful. Not trying to find out who got the post taken down or anything like that. Not interested in any type of petty fight. But it would be helpful to understand the reasoning for the removal so I know what to expect going forward. I am a big fan of consistency ha. You make a good point, although I would add that meteorologists build loads of uncertainty into their forecast. Now, I'll grant you that most people don't know how to interpret that uncertainty haha, and when you actually break it down on that level meteorologists do quite well. One of the points I was making yesterday is that it would behoove the CDC and health professionals to show a bit more humility and admit when they simply don't know something. Again, no one minds a "we don't know" comment so long as it's honest. Just don't piss on my leg and tell me it's raining. The word "science" also gets thrown around entirely too much in regards to all things Covid. Science is the acceleration of gravity being 9.8 meters per second squared. Repeatable observable experimentation. Fact. So much of the policy surrounding covid is flying blind or trying to make bold predictions based on limited knowledge. It seems like anyone can just shout "follow the science" as cover to do whatever they please, and as someone who graduated from a college of science, I just don't buy it. But I do hear you Tim, nothing easy about any of this.