Mount Joy Snowman

The way I think about the off-hour runs is kind of like this.....they are still better than the prior runs simply because they are six additional hours down the line (i.e. closer to the events occurring), so time is on their side; however, the gain in predicative ability from 6z to 12z is greater than the gain from 12z to 18z. Make sense?

I could be off on this but I believe that, outside of special circumstances, the balloons are only sent up for 0z and 12z. Better initialization. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong.

Surprisingly enough MDT got down to 33 last night, which was my low as well.

Nice timing on both of our posts haha. But yeah I had seen that earlier about MU's departure being so much greater. Feels like we had a few potent boundaries draped across the area with tight gradients that could have accounted for the stark difference from SE to NW.

MDT ended the month of February 2.5 degrees above avg., .33" above avg. precip, and 7.4" below avg. snowfall.

Haha well thank you sir you are too kind. That is pretty damn remarkable. Would a betting man then say that they could, perhaps should, be in for a big March/April?

I tallied .61” of liquid, off of which I received a whopping .1” sleet and .1” ice accretion. Lovely.

Hail, you mean hail

Yeah they just illustrate rain falling into a surface temp of 32 or less so actual ice accretion is always much less but was still expecting at least a few reports around .5”. They just put out an updated PNS that includes five reports from Somerset County and not a one is over .3”. Heck, there was good reason to believe that Clearfield County would be ground zero for the icing and the lone ZR report from Clearfield so far is for only .13”. Oh well, not like loads of ice is a good thing.

I was perusing through CTP’s first released PNS and various LSRs and I’ve got to say it’s quite underwhelming. Not a single snow or sleet report above 2” and no ZR reports over .32”, even for the Laurels, with most ~.15”. Was really expecting to see some more impactful ice reports out along the high terrain but so far nada. In the grand picture, it’s hard to say this wasn’t a letdown for the region, which has been par for the course this year.

We’ll never know because this guy was sleeping like a log at that point!

Yeah that possibility was being widely shown by the hi-res models as well. Just never really a snow storm for our area but I am curious to hear about the ice accumulation from some of our northern brethren. Oh wow we had nothing near that here. I could hear the sleet shut-off not long after it started while lying in bed.

I always do horrible in these marginal situations due to my low lying location. Either way, the expectation was for things to be mostly fine by mid to late morning and that still looks to be the case for nearly everyone around here. The Lancaster incidents report map looks pretty quiet.

32/29 here with at most .1” of sleet and .1” of ice accretion. Walked all around and roads are just wet and even my front walkway has zero ice on it. Can already hear things melting off. As expected, virtually a non-event here. Congrats to those who got something worth talking about. Look forward to hearing @Atomixwx ice report. Some nice cold upcoming.

I’m at 31 with freezing rain and what sounds like some ice pellets mixing in as I lie here in bed. Not expecting much impact come mid morning. Good night all and good luck to those to the north and west. Zzzzzzzzzz

I hit 39 today. Currently at 38/20. National high of 90 at Plant City, FL and low of -45 at Seagull Lake, MN. Impressive range of 135 degrees.

Even my less-than-enamored forecast of the last few days may prove to be too optimistic.

Been pouring over the skew-T's here this morning and I'm still going with a minimal type impact event for those of us along the southern tier. The temp profile is still very marginal and basically all layers that matter are at or above freezing by daybreak. I also think the the late night dry-slotting is a real thing, as a couple of hi-res models have been showing. Things will obviously be a bit worse for those above, say, Peters Mountain (shout out to @mahantango#1) and I actually think areas around @Atomixwx see the worst of the icing, but down here, meh, just stay off the roads around daybreak and things should improve pretty quickly by mid morning. Cheers to those in the money!

A very impressive frontal boundary.

Topped out at 67 here, now down to 52. Amazing gradient today with a 45 degree difference between parts of NW PA and the Philly area.

I'm at 66 but expect to pop in the upper 60s within the next 1-2 hours. Are you in downtown Mount Joy? Yes, that's me entering stalker mode again haha.

Bring 'em back down!

Overnight temp of 60 and total rain of .13". My thoughts on the upcoming event: I don't see this as an overly impactful event for those of us in the LSV. The Low to our west is a little too high and tight and the High above us trickles east just a smidge too much, all without a truly arctic airmass in place There is a deep warm layer centered around 800mb, on the back of strong S to SW flow, that is only going to get deeper and warmer as the event progresses. Despite tomorrow turning nice and cool, marginal surface temps just below freezing and recent warming could make accumulation of whatever falls tricky. The short-term models are also starting to pick up on the presence of a pretty significant dry slot over much of central PA late Thursday night, which ironically enough, could help with the ice accretion as drizzle would be more likely to accrete than a more moderate rain in a marginal temp environment. All in all, I see at best a trace of wet snow at the onset followed by a brief period of sleet and then an extended period of freezing rain/drizzle. Whether the roads get dicey at all may depend on whether we can get a layer of sleet to coat them first, as others have mentioned. I think things soften up by midday and outside of the early morning time period, don't see too may issues. The obvious caveat is that CAD can often overperform so we'll have to keep an eye out for that but I'm just not really seeing it with this setup. I think the more serious impacts will be confined to the more northern areas of the forum. I am absolutely not buying some of the more extreme freezing rain outcomes being depicted on some of the models (shocking I know) and think anything approaching a quarter inch would be big for our area. I should also add that the only meaningful snow I see falling is in extreme northeastern PA. In short, warm air wins again. As always, I would love to be wrong.

Very nice! Sounds like you're an A-list cruise aficionado. I haven't yet been to Bermuda.

Easy fellas, easy haha. Not sure how I've managed to paint myself as the resident board stalker but I guess I'll own it. If it's a stalker you want, it's a stalker you'll get! I'm coming to all ya'alls stomping grounds and raising cain! But seriously @pasnownut you'll have a blast. My first cruise ever way back when I was 17 was with Royal Caribbean. They do a great job. There's never a bad time for a cruise. It may be your first but I doubt it will be your last. Cheers mate!