TimB
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Everything posted by TimB
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I don’t think we can hit just 90 anymore.
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I think there’s a lot to be resolved, as we’re trapped between cooler air with an eastern Canadian trough and the warm airmass already in place. Models and ensembles have already moved away from any extended period of cooler weather, but it seems it might be possible a front could dive down later next week and give us a few days near to slightly below normal. But I don’t see the 8-14 day period being below normal on the whole and in fact the CPC has already reversed course on that with today’s outlooks.
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If you ascribe to the theory that 91F is no more arbitrary than 90F (which is indisputably true), then we’re actually ahead of 2012 for 91F days through 7/31 and only trailing 1988 and 1966. Further, 14 of those 16 days have reached 92F. Since 92F is also no more arbitrary than 90F, we’re behind only 1988 for 92F days through the end of July. (at Pittsburgh international)
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And another 91. Dewpoints really dropped.
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6 straight 5-min obs of 90 and it’s not even 3:00. I don’t see how we fall short if we haven’t gotten there already.
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Hmm, a 17 degree difference between Burgettstown and Pittsburgh International, about a 12 mile distance?
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Wait, you’re comparing data from your admittedly cooler location in 2024 to the average across the entire county in 1894?
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Question for you: the equipment used in 1894 - was it sited in the same location as your current weather station and did it have an Asperger fan or whatever you called it?
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Cool, now do East Nantmeal, hotshot.
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Operational models and ensembles do show a pretty strong troughing signal over eastern Canada in that timeframe. Maybe it spills into PA, maybe it doesn’t.
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15th straight July at MDT in the top half of all Julys on record.
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Statistically it would make sense that there are a lot more days that reach exactly 90 vs. 91 vs. 92, etc., and that the further the departure from normal, the fewer days will top out at that exact temperature. So it’s disproportionate in a way that the mathematical explanation makes sense.
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90/50 at that. Rare combo in these parts.
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Seems the rain overcame the dry air pretty easily. Even got a lightning strike just now.
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This warmth just keeps hanging on. Went to bed with a forecast of low 60s, woke up to see it’s still 70 at PIT at 6am.
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Surging way past the NWS forecast high of 78 at PIT (now at 84) because of the rain failure thus far. Looks like we should get some rain after all.
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Tomorrow seems like a sure bet but who knows anymore. Edit: aaaaand, now it doesn’t. This is getting comical.
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The last time Pittsburgh strung together 4 straight 93+ days was the first 4 days of August 2002.
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Second half of summer 1995 was absolutely brutal, so it’ll be tough but this seems doable.
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Coming into today, we were even with August 1995 for hottest month at Pittsburgh International with a mean temp of 77.7. That should go up to about 77.9 or 78.0 after today, but will likely go down in the coming days.
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93
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Yet another 91 in the books.
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It’s crazy. Dewpoints mix into the low 60s at ASOS sites and then you check the dewpoints on nearby PWS and it’s still close to 70.
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Don’t dewpoints typically run high on PWS?
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This is the first time AGC has hit 96 or higher since 7/7/2012.
