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TimB

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Everything posted by TimB

  1. TimB
    0z GFS: 1.2” QPF from the late week event, 0.13” zr, 0.5” snow, approximately a full inch of precip wasted on rain.
  2. TimB
    These days, we get more February rain than liquid equivalent of February snow.
  3. TimB
    Look for those ice accumulations to go away over the next day or two as well. We’re going to waste yet another inch plus of February precipitation on plain rain.
  4. TimB
    NWS seems to know how this late week system plays out, much to our disappointment: The NAM/NAM3k has done historically well with the temperature-profiles with systems like this, so that`ll be something to pay close attention to when it gets within forecast range (84/60hrs). Hint: warmer air aloft always wins.
  5. TimB
    18z GFS continues to weenie us in:
  6. TimB
    I’m with you. If this isn’t another complete waste of a whole bunch of qpf, I’ll be pleasantly surprised.
  7. TimB
    Who knows. The EC is ugly and gives us zero snow and almost all rain, so anything can happen.
  8. TimB
    Someone isn’t going to like this… Also that’s the 0z. 12z is similar but even weaker. Does give us some ice at the beginning.
  9. TimB
    Another fun little squall here. Less intense than the first.
  10. TimB
    Would love for other models to be as bullish with this being a cold system as the GFS has been, but beggars can’t be choosers.
  11. TimB
    7” and never changes to rain. I’d take that.
  12. TimB
    In other news, 12z GFS looks good for the late week storm.
  13. TimB
    Looks like PIT gusted to 47 and AGC to 45. Wind is definitely overperforming.
  14. TimB
    I’ll take the maybe half inch I got. That was fun.
  15. TimB
    Heavy snow in the north hills now.
  16. TimB
    That good band looks poised to run through the north hills, I hope.
  17. TimB
    I’m not saying our snow climo is worse than Philly or DC, because that’s obviously not the case. I’m saying that our snow climo relative to our neighbors is much worse than Philly or DC’s snow climo relative to their neighbors, because they’re adjacent to areas that also suck, but we’re adjacent to areas that regularly jackpot. Regardless, most of the area looks to probably get a squall at some point this morning.
  18. TimB
    You’re in like Beaver, right? Where there was that nice area of yellow on the radar?
  19. TimB
    Dude, I’m not stalking you on Reddit. I looked for the stalker’s account and accidentally happened to stumble upon yours.
  20. TimB
    An unprovoked MLK bust reference!
  21. TimB
    Won’t comment until this event is over, but it’s best to just keep expectations low. It’s no secret that if there were a stat for “snow climo relative to neighboring areas”, Pittsburgh may very well be in or near last place in the entire US.
  22. TimB
    You could argue December and February last year, though February was marginal (most of the snow on the ground for a few weeks was from the last day of January), but that’s the only winter since I moved back here in 2015 that had more than one winter month. You could also make a case for ‘17-18, but that would require you to include March.
  23. TimB
    I’m a little down that unless the storm late next week pans out, 2 of the 3 winter months were abysmal, but I still view the MLK storm as a success.
  24. TimB
    The commonality is that the model that shows the least snow or the most warmth has won almost every time. This time it’s the Euro.
  25. TimB
    NWS is particularly pessimistic about that chance. They’re carrying a 20% chance of precip.
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