TimB

18z NAM has us in a good spot but it continues to tick north. I’m worried we’re in a precarious spot and this is just part of a bad trend.

Razor thin margins, but love when this gets put in the point and click. That said, the Euro took a slight shift north at 12z. Far northern Allegheny county is still fine, but the rest of us are riding the slop line.

The depth maps are meh, so I’m thinking it’s bad temp profiles and tough to get accumulation anywhere close to 10:1 even with a mean of 7”, but who knows.

GEFS mean looks awesome.

And just like that, it’s gone on the GFS.

Sadly, the 0z GFS went the wrong direction. But the GEFS ensemble mean still looks pretty good.

6z run, I think.

Your arrogance is disgusting. I can’t wait until climate denial mostly dies with your generation.

This is the second time on record and first since 1878 that the first 7 days of February have featured exactly zero measurable precip. In 1878, there was measurable precip on the 8th. At this juncture, no model is showing precip before midnight tomorrow night, so we may make history.

Not on board with that. Take out the food and water part and we have a deal. Oh, and re: “human beings”, I’m not sure it’s settled science that climate deniers are human beings.

No, I’m saying that those who came to said conclusions have a lot more expertise in the matter than ChescoWx does. That’s why they, and not ChescoWx, were hired to do that job.

Anyone who believes the NCEI has a hidden agenda should be locked in a padded room.

I haven’t researched this particular issue, but it’s obvious to anyone with any critical thinking ability whatsoever that: 1) the NCEI had their reasons for making those adjustments 2) the reasons for those adjustments are based in actual science that they are qualified to do, otherwise NCEI wouldn’t have hired them 3) there is no hidden agenda in this particular issue 4) the earth is warming and 5) humans are the primary cause of said warming. It’s utterly ludicrous to disagree with any one of these points, let alone all 5.

1895 to 1970, even if inclusive, is only 76 years. How can you do statistical analysis if you can’t do simple arithmetic?

The meteorological community does not respect you. I can assure you of that.

They certainly didn’t use the poorly sited weather station in your backyard. You’d probably get more accurate data out of it if you shoved it up your ass.

I would tend to trust the professional opinion of the experts at the NCEI over some amateur in East Nantmeal with a poorly sited weather station.

Tinfoilhat.jpg

That’s none other than the great Jeff “snow showers” Verszyla.

9 straight AN winters. Hmmm.

Do you have access to the Kuchera map by chance?

Is it a sign of anything that I just saw a Canada goose flying northward?

Heartbreak as depicted, but I think that’s too early to really be our window anyway.

You talking about that fugitive they caught last fall, the 2nd worst person ever to set foot in East Nantmeal?

Double Whopper combo meal?