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TimB

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Everything posted by TimB

  1. TimB
    All 0z guidance so far pretty much ends the dream. Fuck this hobby.
  2. TimB
    Yep. Looking like we’re losing the NAM too. Entire precip shield misses us SE.
  3. TimB
    0z HRRR is a buzzkill.
  4. TimB
    Calendar day in and of itself can be misleading, but comparing calendar day records at one location vs another will give you a good idea of which location has better storm climo, which I think is what he was going for.
  5. TimB
    Outside of lake enhancement in NW flow, we have upper south/lower midwest snow climo but northeast advisory/warning criteria.
  6. TimB
    21z RAP is still a beaut.
  7. TimB
    Not sure how much stock anyone puts into the ICON, but improvement to 2-3” at 18z after it had been very consistent in less than an inch for several runs.
  8. TimB
    18z GFS trended back to decent. 3 hours of good snow to get us a low end advisory type event.
  9. TimB
    NAMs also slid SE.
  10. TimB
    Probably won’t even have to shovel.
  11. TimB
    Euro may have put the final nail in the coffin.
  12. TimB
    I know the RAP can’t be trusted at this range or really any range, but it does drop 9” in 6 hours including a couple hours with 2-3” rates.
  13. TimB
    Even with all that radiational cooling we’re still sitting at +13.2 month to date. Just behind 1925 (at a different observing site) for warmest first 10 days of Feb ever.
  14. TimB
    As a second straight winter that is a complete and total failure for the eastern US becomes more and more of a possibility, it’s getting harder and harder to be positive and to not be cynical.
  15. TimB
    This thing is dead. CTP jumping the gun on issuing a winter storm watch with their already piddly 5” criteria compared to the 6” criteria the entire rest of the northeast uses, seems like false hope.
  16. TimB
    We won’t get 10:1 ratios, it depicts temps being above freezing the entire time snow is falling.
  17. TimB
    Ok, technically it still gets us a decent total, but is this at all promising?
  18. TimB
    And there it goes. Stick a fork in it.
  19. TimB
    Once the bleeding starts, it never stops. We know this by now. Another wasted storm and likely another wasted winter.
  20. TimB
    Note that this is through 2/21. 3-4” of snow in the southern half of PA outside the mountains over a 10 day period in February is approximately climo.
  21. TimB
    What a dumb winter. Can’t believe we got two of these in a row, and this one is somehow worse than last year, which was the worst winter that’s ever occurred here.
  22. TimB
    It’s over. 6z GFS had the 6-8” line clipping a portion of the county, at 18z no one in Allegheny gets more than 3-4.
  23. TimB
    18z NAM has us in a good spot but it continues to tick north. I’m worried we’re in a precarious spot and this is just part of a bad trend.
  24. TimB
    Razor thin margins, but love when this gets put in the point and click. That said, the Euro took a slight shift north at 12z. Far northern Allegheny county is still fine, but the rest of us are riding the slop line.
  25. TimB
    The depth maps are meh, so I’m thinking it’s bad temp profiles and tough to get accumulation anywhere close to 10:1 even with a mean of 7”, but who knows.
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