TimB

By the 1991-2020 normals, our normal high/low since Sunday has been 83/64, which is the highest it goes and runs through the 28th. On the 29th, it goes back to 83/63. Which means... the day when normal temps start dropping is within GFS range.

There’s optimism for your dry period going into next week, depending on how and where the ridge sets up.

Well you were spot on with the “our climo doesn’t allow for droughts” comment awhile back.

Pouring rain and some wind here. Looks like that storm got a warning after it passed over me.

But the map in question was this, so yeah, major brain fart. Some things just scream northerly flow.

Hypothetically there could and probably will come a day when this hobby is ruined by technology and, well, science. I’m glad I’ll be dead long before then.

And that’s true too. Presumably if two days hypothetically had the exact same atmospheric conditions at the exact same time of the year, they would always be exactly identical RE: observed weather.

Add to that, I should know better. The flow has W PA on the eastern edge of that ridge so of course the winds would be out of the north. Damn work getting in the way of hobbies again. LOL.

Bingo. Light NNW wind. I knew I was missing something. Thanks!

Just not sure I’m buying a situation where there are 594 heights (disclaimer: in western PA), and it’s sunny and 83 in the mid-afternoon.

Yeah, looks like a Danville/Sunbury special.

Quite dry indeed. I think it’s a foregone conclusion that the north central US gets hot to very hot in the mid to long range. I still think that means a wide range of possibilities out here, but if you look at the 200+ hour range of the CMC, there’s a definite trend and it’s not in the right direction unless your name is @Voyager.

The ridge sure does win on this run. But maybe not decisively.

SPC thinks you’re right. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 131648Z - 131815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms developing will pose a risk for damaging winds and severe hail this afternoon/evening. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be issued in the next hour. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows morning clearing has given way to widespread cumulus development across the region. Surface temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 80s F amid rich low-level moisture characterized by dew point temperatures in the low to mid 70s F. This has led to rapid destabilization, with MLCAPE values of 1500 J/kg being analyzed across the region, and approaching 2000-2500 J/kg across portions of south-central Pennsylvania. Isolated storms are already beginning to develop, with a severe/maturing convective cell noted in central New York. This trend is expected to continue, with scattered storms expected across the region by early to mid afternoon. With effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt, storms should organize into a mixture of multicells and supercells, posing a risk for mainly damaging winds and some severe hail, and a tornado or two is possible. Given these trends, a severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed for the region in the next hour or so.

That’s one of the things I love about weather. The underlying principles can be so simple and intuitive, but the actual results on the ground can be so chaotic and unpredictable.

“Satisfy” is an understatement. That storm was incredible, IMO. A switch has been flipped. After a slow start to spring thunderstorms, June and July have been solid.

But does it bother you when MDT records 2” of snow and you get 6”?

I understand the fine people of Smethport refer to such events as a light sprinkle.

I wouldn’t have expected it to be a massive difference, just on those days when it’s marginal for convective temps to be breached, so statistically significant is good enough for me. I wouldn’t be shocked if it had an even smaller, but still there, effect on precip totals downstream (in areas generally slightly E/NE of cities) if storms are able to form in the slightly warmer environment of cities and then move out of those areas.

But isn’t Pillow the unofficial official site for Dauphin County now?

Sampled a few weather stations out there, they seem to be running either just behind or just ahead of PIT’s normal month to date, mostly due to overperforming relatively on 7/1.

I got a couple of torrential downpours back to back Sunday afternoon that put down over an inch of rain, then more rain last evening and early this morning that put down another inch or so. PIT airport got 0.39” on Sunday and 0.17” this morning, so that’s why I’m in the red and they’re in the yellow. I would guess UHI has some effect on thunderstorms, given that warmer temperatures create more instability, but that’s a conjecture and I’ve never looked at the science.

Sounds like a wide gap between the haves and the have nots in a small area from what I’ve read on here.

Yinzerland stands in solidarity with you on this one. Best overnight storm in recent memory out here.

@Bubbler86 overnight model runs looked on the dry side but seem to keep the big heat at bay. GFS range now goes to 7/29 so let’s hope we can lock this in.