TimB
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Everything posted by TimB
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I’m in Cancun the last week of October. It’s a tremendous risk when it comes to missing the first flakes.
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Hasn’t been a single flake east of the continental divide on any model run for days.
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SPC slight risk (5/15/0 probabilities) area coincides very closely with PBZ’s domain, for what it’s worth.
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Western PA/Pittsburgh Fall Weather Discussion
TimB replied to Ahoff's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I think the first half of next week will be at least a hair above the normals of 71/51. Nothing extreme. -
Should be interesting. Nonzero tornado risk, though the parameters don’t seem that impressive.
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Yes, the interface is much less tedious on TT. It’s a trade off.
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I rarely use TT, as you’ve probably seen from the images I post on here. LOL
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Overnight model runs aren’t showing anything I find unacceptable, seasonable late Sept/early Oct weather.
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Western PA/Pittsburgh Fall Weather Discussion
TimB replied to Ahoff's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Was hoping for more than a day or two of slightly below normal before we revert back to normal or slightly above, but beggars can’t be choosers. -
18z GFS is a bit better than 12z. Still a couple toasty days but not the gates of hell by October standards.
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That ridge is impressive but not centered over PA...yet.
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Still gives a solid Wednesday. Early week is hot.
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Yeah, we’re toast.
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We’ll see what the EC says. Yesterday it had a deep trough in that timeframe.
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Was hoping to turn off my a/c for good this week. The fact that I haven’t on 9/21 is already ridiculous and stupid, but now there’s a chance I can’t until October.
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Next week has trended above. Nothing like starting October with a few +10s to +15s to cripple the chances of a below normal month. Despite the normals going up by a lot, PIT could still be 6/10 on above normal months this year and MDT will be even more than that.
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Could legitimately get 1, maybe 2 days below normal out of this pattern.
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Not arguing here either. It’s just an interesting stat.
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Pirates had some ridiculous streak against the Brewers awhile back. Like 20+ consecutive losses in Milwaukee.
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You figure, even a 48-102 team like the Orioles is averaging one win per series.
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I’ll take 70/50 over the garbage we’ve had the past couple weeks, but there’s never a corresponding -10 as a reward for getting through all this +10 crap.
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Most forecasts in the MDT area are running 72/52 for a few days, which is about a -3 this late in September. Mine are about 68/48, which is also about a -3.
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Days on end of +10, then a couple days of -3 or -4, then right back to normal. It’s the way it goes anymore. I don’t see how this month doesn’t end up at least +2.
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At least Pittsburgh won at something.
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Indeed, 84/66 here. Gross.
