TimB
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Everything posted by TimB
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All of the models seem to be on board with that mid-week frontal passage. Overnight runs were exactly what I wanted to see.
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Hey, isn’t September 29th pretty much the same sun angle as....the sun angle of the Blizzard of 93?
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MDT is at 41 with rain on that panel. But the big news is, digital snow for PA has officially begun.
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Some areas of Potter/Tioga get 6+” Kuch.
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EC keeps the ugly dewpoints over all of PA through the end of its run.
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12z GFS does what it should in September. Warm -> cold front in 8 days or so -> seasonable with mostly sub-60 dewpoints -> chilly with a 540 line through almost all of PA (actually dips to the VA/NC border at the end).
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65? Foreclosure doesn’t sound like comfort to me, and that’s what I’d be facing if I set mine at 65.
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Not 2. 0.2
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Even the remaining “heat” over the next week could probably be more accurately described as “warmth”, save for maybe a day here or there.
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The end is in sight. CMC does something different and rebuilds the ridge in that timeframe after a less decisive frontal passage and retrograding trough.
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The last couple days of that run do look spectacular. Lock it in.
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18z GFS gets a bit toasty late in the run again. In better news, October will be within view on the GFS by morning.
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Just looked at the earlier parts of the GFS run, which suggest 90 is still in play for me early next week, when my normal high is 73.
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Looks like we’re right in the battleground between the trough and the ridge at the end. That would be fairly seasonable.
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GFS looks like it’s beating back that late-month trough with yet another ridge. Short-lived relief. Cold front is west of the Mississippi on the CMC at 240. Ugh.
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Ah yes, now we’re into that phase where there are 9 days of heat. And when we wake up tomorrow, there will still be 9 days of heat. And when we wake up Thursday, there will still be 9 days of heat.
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Oddly, the position of Nicholas on that map isn’t terrible.
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It’s hard when the quoted map here was the GFS’s map for today, just 9 days out. I think there was also one where my afternoon temp was 47 sometime this upcoming weekend, but we’ll give that one a pass because it was a lot longer range.
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The cool down hasn’t reached PA by the end of the EC or CMC runs, which I’d like to see before I say September can be salvaged.
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That stuff held us to 79 yesterday out here, which was much appreciated.
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18z GFS says we take our fall back well before the month is up.
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Western PA/Pittsburgh Fall Weather Discussion
TimB replied to Ahoff's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Could do without this humidity, but nice to see both PIT and AGC rolling into the 4:00 hour without an 80 yet. -
Even the PIT departure of -3.4 through this past Saturday should be easily made up and then some this week. Above normal month seems like a sure bet at MDT and more likely than not at PIT.
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Classic UHI just after sunset. It gets clearer and clearer that MDT is just a bad place to take observations.
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Couple 5-min obs of 68 at MDT, so I think that’ll be the official low. Same as we got at PIT, actually, but our high yesterday was only 82.
