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bobbutts

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Everything posted by bobbutts

  1. Taking the under on 10-14" with 18" locally here. Seems like only the NAM supports those kinds of numbers. I'll be rooting against my forecast though, rather have the snow than be right.
  2. 18z NAM actually shaves off some qpf up this way vs. 12z but it's still a big hit. Euro really not good though. Seems like a really hard forecast for C. NH. I can't decide what to expect yet.
  3. This (experimental) graphic from GYX showing extreme uncertainty in the potential.. I'm looking at 0-18" Despite the rather silly range of values there I think this is an excellent product.
  4. I don't know really about how much will be left at magic, haven't been in a few years, untracked is hard to come in the east by if you aren't first chair or during the storm. Uphill capacity vs. amount of terrain means it will be less beaten up than most places though. Mt. Snow has an entire pod of expert runs on their North face, plenty to keep you busy for a day trip.
  5. Magic is a throwback with older fixed lifts and a bunch of glades and ungroomed runs. If you are a relatively strong skier you should check it out. There are some that are groomed also, but if that is your thing, definitely head to Mt. Snow. Mt. Snow is your modern resort with high speed lifts including a bubble 6-pack and wide groomed runs, terrain parks, etc. The main face has more blues than you can hit in a day and there is a good expert pod on the north face.
  6. Heh, you can really get to know someone on that summit lift ride, it's a long one. I'm thinking about checking it out tomorrow.
  7. Was going to suggest Cannon, but might be a wind hold risk there.
  8. Improving appearance on satellite.
  9. This was sort of a backdoor hit for San Juan. Even though they were in the right front, the storm had to go 30+ miles over hilly terrain before reaching San Jose. I don't know how to begin trying to calculate how much, but that will definitely temper the winds some.
  10. I don't see any improvement on the reasoning above in the more recent posts. You can predict that it is definitely OTS at this point and have a roughly 80% chance of being right.
  11. Yeah, see the post I made while you were making that one. I stand by my original post though. Per the damage wheel from the NWS 175 is twice as bad as 160. You REALLY don't want to get far into cat 5 territory for winds when it's the difference between partial and total failure of the structures where people are sheltering. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream/tropics/images/saff_wheel.pdf
  12. NW eyewall in the bigger eye looking very formidable. A large swath of PR looks to face extreme winds.
  13. Every MPH counts extra at this point. Big difference even though the 160 is still incredibly bad.
  14. Barring a change in direction it looks to make a close run at San Juan.
  15. Outer ring should pass over St. Croix. Unlucky timing for them for it to be strong at this point. Looks like two healthy eyewall features to me.
  16. The problem with mountainous terrain is that there can be severe flash flooding and mudslides where they drain.
  17. No much wiggle room for St. Croix. I'm getting about 306 degree movement from radar.
  18. Cloud tops really cooling per goes-16. Looks extremely imposing even with the less filled in NW side.
  19. Probably more importantly for PR, if Maria were to track over St. Croix it would likely also pass well East of San Juan. If Maria stays on the current trajectory the inner circulation will miss St. Croix to the South/West or just brush it.
  20. Far less mountainous, unlikely to be disruptive.
  21. Last 5 hours and change from TJUA radar.
  22. This has to be about worst case winds for Dominica with the eye appearing to hit directly through the most populated areas. I imagine that waves/surge and freshwater flooding will all also be pretty dire.
  23. Looks to be tightening as it comes ashore (accounting for parallax)
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