SnowenOutThere

@CAPE I got to use your pfp for an example of -NAO blocking on an AP environmental science worksheet today and how it sets up colder conditions on the east coast. It was all about how NAO and el nino/nina affects the weather and I've never been so ready for an assignment in my life.

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Storms can still cut, esp early in the season. I get your point though. Big difference with the features in the NPAC.

I just like to see how if/when storms cut on guidance there is actual cold air delivery behind them, which was too much to ask for last year excluding the Christmas fiasco

Just now, CAPE said:

They have been 'seeing' that for multiple runs now. The looks in the NA on some recent runs are interesting.

You can tell even from the op runs that it *looks* different than the crappy Nina base state we’ve been in for years with there being actual cold behind storms instead of endless warm cutters. 

27 minutes ago, CAPE said:

..and save winter for the greater DC area

He was completely correct last year …

26 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

What are those benchmarks? You can DM me if you don't want the peanut gallery giving you static.

I'd also be interested in getting those statistics if you share them 

Thanksgiving day storm 

39 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I know you guys are seeing the 348hr 12z GFS and realizing its a Thanksgiving miracle snowstorm in the making...but I would advise everyone that digital snow often doesn't materialize at long leads.  

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

JB  puts everyone  on alert. El nino storms

 

 

I somehow think his underwater volcanoes take might make more sense than whatever this is, which is an astonishingly low bar to trip over. 

49 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Looks like in the latest edition everything just seems more smoothed out with lesser anomalies in both directions. The same general idea is still there.

Still a considerable step back.

25.3 degrees which is a lot colder than I thought I’d get too. For some reason the inside of the pool area at practice today was like 60 degrees this morning which was not welcomed.

37 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Because that idea never had consensus in the 60s and 70s. It's a common fallacy, published research from back then predicted the modern day warming rather accurately, surprisingly so for being half a century ago.

In any case the thought process of "science was wrong back then so it shouldn't be taken with any credence now" is one made in bad faith. Scientific inquiry is not infallible, but the best working theories or lines of research cannot be disregarded simply because some guy was wrong 500 years ago. Even your 60s argument has no weight when comparing to the current working theory of current global temperature rise. The 60s idea never had any great backing or predictive capabilities. The best understood theory of current global temp rise has both of those things. 

I appreciate your post but nothing we say will ever convince them, they are deliberately engaging in bad faith to spread their ideas, not to have them challenged by others which would cause them to reevaluate their own. 

1 hour ago, Pixee said:

Miss the point all day and half the night if you want. cool with me. I cry about nothing on this forum. It's snow, not world peace.

Damn “all day and half the night” Russia must be spending a lot more on its bots. 

1 hour ago, Pixee said:

Almost as annoying as the never ending obsession with 2009-2010 as if it's the eternal benchmark for all storms on the east coast. I find myself doing a lot of scrolling past all the reminiscing. The earth changes regardless of humans or science. Maps you see today are already obsolete. Science is testing/comparison/theorum/deduction/results and analysis. It isn't foolproof or absolute because it's a man made conceptual system for us to understand our immediate reality better. The same science that declares the earth is moving to a heatsink is the same science that declared frozen future ice ages in the 60s. The same science that 'knew' the sun rotated the earth. As our understanding of the planet increases over time so will the accuracy. The oceans are still 70 percent unknown even now and they are a driving force of weather patterns. The earth  has a chaos factor, not rigid systemic order that we can always package neatly for convenience.

and now back to your regularly scheduled program...

Go cry about it, unfortunately for you we are an atmospheric science board.

With the latest GFS run we officially kick into the season of getting unreasonable amounts of domaine through blue pixels on a screen! 

Lock it in!!! First digital snowfall IMBY.

Sunrise alert

1 hour ago, mattie g said:

I'm flipping through DT's slides today and it's surprisingly well written and quite digestible for a complete novice like me. Really good stuff.

link?

First digital snowfall of the season on the GFS for the northwestern crew. 

DCA: 11/11

IAD: 10/31

BWI: 11/1

RIC: 11/11

BWI Oct departure: -0.4F

1 hour ago, Ji said:

for Leesburg--it was actually 4 inches snowier lol than the Sept run

Can’t wait for E7 to nail November and December then E20 bring it home for the rest of winter to get us our very realistic total of 90 inches.

2 hours ago, WesternFringe said:

Real about what?- that many people who live in cities stereotype rural populations as dumb and backwards?  I have lived in the valley for nearly 30 years and have met many smart, thoughtful people and seen the arts and music scene thrive.  There are doctors, lawyers, professors, engineers, meteorologists, etc that live here just like in urban areas.  Sometimes stereotypes are just that.

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Not everyday you get to see this on visible. Pretty incredible seeing its clouds reach up to Boston. 

Just now, George BM said:

With the high clouds over Illinois and near the Mississippi River fairly far to the west areas that do not have to many low clouds from Ophelia yet, especially from the metro region westwards, may experience a, at least, briefly gorgeous sunset before any of the aforementioned Midwest clouds try to cut the show short (they're pretty far west so we'll see how long a gorgeous sunset lasts). The further WNW you are the better. (Medium confidence)

Honestly the “hurricane sunset” associated with tropical systems is probably what I’m most excited for with this storm.