SnowenOutThere

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

CMC is slower but still looks like a good thump incoming at 7am Monday. Deeper cad - looks better 

Looks more snowy than it’s 12z run so far 

Meanwhile CMC out to hour 72 has a slightly more amped S/w but better confluence than it’s 12z run 

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

99% over here - trying to cut out tomorrow’s “event”

Not horrible verbatim but if it trends any further north it’ll get ugly for most of forum where people live  

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

I’m starting to think we don’t want this. Seems to result in a slower storm and a stauncher warm nose. I could also very well be connecting the dots on something that isn’t a connect the dots puzzle. 

The time of needing a stronger S/w is over, we no longer have the fear of this shredding or going too far south. For a while yesterday the trend of a stronger S/w helped us but now it’s the opposite

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Quick request: A definition of "2 countered" once PBP is finished.

How maybe closed counters there are around the low on the vort or h5 map. More closed conters is stronger

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Hair more amped, but base of s/w a hair south.   Confluence about the same

Confluence is technically slightly further north east but only maybe half an asshairs (approximately one county further north) 

A note to snow total maps from this run of the GFS is that it gives a small blob around DC an inch of snow from Fridays squall event so make sure to keep that in mind!

4 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

The storm is 3 days away now, Saturday is 2 days? I’m confused why you’re not allowed to make a real call 2 days out.

That’s when the NWS will issue their forecast and headlines for the storm will likely be in place…

Well yeah, I make one forecast when a storm is 6 days out at the start of the medium range with a general overview that goes over potential setups. Then I made one today for 4 days out at the end of the medium range that goes over distinct possibilities from the setup that the models agreed upon and then I’ll make one Sunday morning with accumulation maps and stuff as itll be in the short range then. 

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

The kids liked my forecasts back in the days of school because I gave them a real forecast. Shed those %’s by Saturday and make a real call. 

Sorry man next time when I make a forecast a week out for an exact amount of snow I’ll make sure they know I did it so they would think I’m a “real forecaster”. Guess those people over at the NWS are also just posers with their fancy percentage based maps till a storms inside day 3. 

3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Reston is typically on the dividing line, so I feel you there. I'm going to be in Edgewater, another area that walks the line. It will be pretty close in our hoods. I do feel we see some sleet in this at both our locations, but it will not be long and we'll get thumped with the WAA pattern, then flip back for some CCB fun to round things out. We'll be okay (Famous last words )

Thanks for the clarification, I just always see north of I-66 and go “well I’m technically part of that group” when in reality it’s always more of a battle. Glad to know it’ll mostly be snow (for the parts that matter most anyways), either way I’m mainly in it to make sure I get Monday off school and my forecast of 40% chance of 4-8 30% chance 8+ and 20% 1-4 isn’t horribly off. 

3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

spot. Down by your hood, the issue is the depth of the cold is not nearly as primed compared to those north of I-66.

Not to “how much for my backyard” too much but I’ve seen a couple knowledgeable posters talk about how I-66 should be a decent dividing line between the heavier mixing risk to the south and a more snowy solution to the north, which sorta puts me in a rough spot because I live maybe 5 miles north of 66 (out near Reston) so I’m a little uncertain which group I fall. Anyways, it would be nice to know mentally how to interpret the I-66 stuff. 

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

ICON is WAY colder than the NAM heading into the event. 

It just needs to not hold onto its huge jump north. If I remember correctly it did some weird stuff yesterday at 18z before coming back into agreement with the other (better) models by 0z

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

84hr NAM has a wrong bias 

Almost as notorious as the HRRR’s 48 hour one

40 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

yes!! Come get some snowy pictures of the Capitol. I've been waiting for 2 years. Only place more beautiful than UVA in the snow might be DC.

Would also want to enjoy the day sledding with my friends and stuff. If I do go do you have any recs on where to take pics?

Capital Weather Gang article mentions the possibility of frontal enhancement in its latest article as "There are also some indications that the jet stream pattern and localized fronts may help intensify snow over our region". Has 35% of 3-6 for DC, 35% 6+ for DC, 20% 1-4 because mixing issues, and 10% chance of 1-4 for DC due to missing to the south. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2025/01/02/dc-region-snow-storm-forecast-ice-winter-weather/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=wp_weather

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

DCA was really unimpressive during last years' 3-5"ers. I think folks will have trouble coming in and out of DCA on Monday and Tuesday... with the way plane delays and cancellations roll over it could be tricky. I got my family to push our flight out of DCA from Tuesday morning -> Sunday morning instead, as much as it pained the weenie in me.

The good news about DCA (or IAD, if that's your destination) is that the metro hooks right up to the airports. It operates close to normal in up to 4-6", and they'll be clearing it throughout the day. If you land, you can get to downtown proper and hopefully close to your hotel.

The metro should be a lifesaver for anyone who needs to be out and about Monday. Might be fun to head into DC on the silver line and take some pictures

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

I would be upset at the return of the infamous DC claw but hard to complain about only getting 8-10 instead of 10+

Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Oh man it's beautiful.  That would be a lot of QPF I would think.

Do not need to worry about QDF on that run, would be a fun winters morning even if it gets a bit icy

CMC looks decent according to this site https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html, though does have IAD and DCA mix for a time before flipping to heavy snow.

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Beautiful 

You were just a little premature in posting that 

Has a little bit of backend snow at hour 108, and honestly (though a met may want to chime in) seems somewhat close atmospherically to having a more prolonged period of coastal enhancement. 

Just now, yoda said:

No it's not 

Pivotal has a weird brief period of mixing hit DC around hour 93 before heavier precip switches it back to snow but with this sounding it may just be snow. 

Just now, stormtracker said:

beginning edge of precip shield as at the door a bit faster.  Snow starts around 10p Sunday.   COnfluence seems just a touch further North...nothing shocking

Seems like it should be at the very least a decent run for us, definitely not a shift to the Euro though. 

16 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Looking at the Nam at range is probably not the best idea. Looking at the Nam at all probably not even a good idea haha. 

Yeah it was mainly just an exercise in having too much time on my hands, besides we all know the only model to really take seriously is the CFS

While we're between run I looked at the NAM and FWIW at the end of its run looks to have more confluence further southwest than the 6z GFS while also having a slightly stronger southwest. I assume this would turn out well for us but I'm also by far not the best person here to analyze it.