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SnowenOutThere

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  1. SnowenOutThere
    Hell of a Tornado outbreak looks to be occurring in PA. 7 active warnings right now
  2. SnowenOutThere
    Stormy, sometimes you really need to realize you’re not the expert in the room. The SPC/drought monitor people/WPC all are smarter than you in their subject matter. So much ignorance of people about how much skill it takes to be an expert in a field. It’s a plague onto our society. From vaccine “skeptics” who believe they know better, to election deniers “who know the truth, to you sitting here spouting the same rhetoric. Listen more, post less.
  3. SnowenOutThere
    Thanks for responding/correcting me. I suppose my main take was based on assuming the storm initiation method would be the same. To my knowledge Friday and Thursday had storms due to the Lee trough and intense heating generating cape and basically hitting convective temp around 3pm. I didn’t realize today was more synoptic based for storm development. I suppose I haven’t had practice with these yet. Though, I never thought that if storms popped they wouldn’t be nasty with the increased, especially considering WxUSF mentioning we are now 2000+ CAPE.
  4. SnowenOutThere
    You got a link to that? Preferably the height temp dep point sheet. I still have some full page skew-T sheets I took from my lab at UVA and would love to do a hand written analysis
  5. SnowenOutThere
    Hmm, took a look at the mesoanalysis page and I’m still on the train of storms today could be nasty, but I have some concerns about initiation. I did a hand analysis of the SPC page and evidently the pre frontal axis is located along route 15. Meanwhile, the pre frontal trough associated with a low level wind shift from south to south west is draped across the Allegheny front. I’m just not sure we have the juice to kick off storms. My dew point is in the upper 60s, but our cape west of the beltway remains stubbornly in the 500-1000 range. This isn’t like last Friday where we had 3000+ Cape and near conditionally unstable LL lapse rates. Additionally, the RH between the LCL and LFC is 30-50% across where the trough would cause storms to form. Just seems we got a good bit stacked against us thermodynamically. That said, this is all beginner analysis so the Mets probably see reasons that storms will pop that I don’t.
  6. SnowenOutThere
    Interesting how tight the gradient is between Louden county and the DC border. Do you think it’ll fill in west or no? Visual sat shows some clearing.
  7. SnowenOutThere
    If we get a bit more clearing then I’m feeling it today. Last week I got back to back days of legit severe storms. One of which was stronger than anything in the past couple years. Something to remember from both days is some CAMs were anemic the day of, so I’m not too worried about them. Additionally, both days last week produced that in spite of no shear.
  8. SnowenOutThere
    Cross posting here since it concerns some none severe weather
  9. SnowenOutThere
    An exciting couple of hours weather wise! Honestly, once the first round passed I assumed it was over until I heard some thunder in the distance. After looking at the radar I instantly rushed off to the Herndon metro parking garage as it has the best skyline I know of. Got there in time to watch the shelf cloud develop and then roll in. Before becoming part of the "# of people struck by lightning a year" statistic I made sure to get a picture of my trusty stead: The humble CRV. Afterwards, I decided to ride out the storm inside of the parking garage as driving home on FFX County parkway did not seem like a good time. Eventually, I decided to take a video of the storm coming in. Could hear the metal signs clanging throughout the empty garage. Was pretty freaky. Finally, as the storm passed I saw a double rainbow appear. I attempted to get a lightning rainbow picture to complete my collection but had no such luck; though I personally hold the mental image with me. Lo and behold, just as I was packing up, another rainbow appeared which was even more vibrant than the first! Finally, I headed on homeward where I was met with a tree in the road. Additional limbs came down on fences, and even my neighbors windshield. Now, this (if I was smart) is where I should've realized that we will have an awesome sunset due to the past convection and humid air combined with the advantageous June sun angle and thus rushed to some open space to capture what might be the sunset of the year. Sadly, I only realized it was occurring as it passed (I'm sure there is a lesson in this) and realized a 10 minute drive would reward me only with deepening twilight. So, I sat back and watched what I could from my driveway.
  10. SnowenOutThere
    Sunset of the year contender
  11. SnowenOutThere
    Geez, got back home and there’s a tree down across the road. Couple limbs down around the neighborhood. Everyone’s outside.
  12. SnowenOutThere
    Just got to watch two separate double rainbows play out. Sadly didn’t get lucky with a lightning shot.
  13. SnowenOutThere
    Thanks for checking in! Went up to the Herndon metro parking garage for this one. Got some super neat storm pics as the shelf cloud formed in front of me. Realized it would be nasty checking velocity so I stayed in the garage and recorded a video of it hitting (will be posted later). Could hear the metal signs clanging. Didn’t seem to get the insane winds of IAD but I’m okay with that.
  14. SnowenOutThere
    Quick question for the meteorologists, but after this round initiates will there be back built development? In charge of practice and trying to figure out if I should cancel for the whole day (till 6:15)
  15. SnowenOutThere
    Noticing a tall CU cloud shooting up near Dulles. Seems to have hit the LFC and keeps rising.
  16. SnowenOutThere
    Thanks to everyone for responding! Adding to this discussion with the echo tops and visible sat estimated from the KIAD radar. Seems to support the general idea of a low topped environment. Can see that one cell southwest of DC trying to reach upward, but the real visible edge of the storms as the low level outflow induced shelf clouds. What an interesting storm system; had low topped storms in a high CAPE environment and despite that had significant wind with it. Always interests me why a certain storm is a particular way. Also helped show me CAPE isn't everything I thought it is.
  17. SnowenOutThere
    From my 3000 course Atmosphere and Weather the only thing that fully stands out is the slight rightward nudge between 500mb and 300mb. Seems odd that’d prevent a mature thunderhead considering the abundant cape still present. Maybe the other piece is the hodograph which only has unidirectional shear up to sounding point 2? Will page some of our smarter friends to help out @high risk @CAPE @MillvilleWx
  18. SnowenOutThere
    The lack of lightning does indicate how these storms were relatively low topped. Just seems odd as forecasted soundings showed a high enough EL point and we had big CAPE throughout the layer. I’m sure something caused it though.
  19. SnowenOutThere
    Sorta weird how these storms didn’t have the sky filling effect they sometimes do. Had a good shelf and then some smooth bands but didn’t build up as a thunderhead and barely had cirrus. Made me seem insane when I kept telling my coaches a storm was coming in. Any met want to take a stab at why these looked atypical?
  20. SnowenOutThere
    Had the craziest drive from Braddock to west ox via ffx county parkway. Left right as the shelf was coming overhead and made it home right before the rain wall. Gust front was legit, lots of airborne leaves and whatnot. Even managed to buffet my relatively small crv back and forth some.
  21. SnowenOutThere
    Still seem to have a bit of a lee trough if I'm not mistaken as well. I guess we're just missing shear and a forcing mechanism. Storms seem to be popping out near Pittsburgh as well. Quick question, and I know its not fully understood, but what conditions should we look for to get prolific lightning producers? Since the storms are coming in during the night I might try to get to do some lightning photography if I can assuming they hold together as the latest NAM suggests.
  22. SnowenOutThere
    Got bullseyed for just under an inch of rain yesterday. Picked up .4 with the morning round and .55 with the evening storms.
  23. SnowenOutThere
    Feels properly like a wet blanket out there.
  24. SnowenOutThere
    Will that help with severe chances today or just help convection start? Seems we have Cape and not much else to work with today (bad shear, bad ML lapse rates, okay surface lapse rates). Either way how likely do you think it is we get some thunder today? I’m head coach for a swim team from 3:45 to 6:15pm so I gotta monitor the situation.
  25. SnowenOutThere
    Wait. You're the capital weather gang Ian right? I want you all at capital weather gang to know you're a large part of how I've learned meteorology. I remember my 5th grade teacher let me read the articles from her laptop and that being my first exposure to real forecasting (outside of books I managed to find). I can recall how I'd wait for the updates before each snowstorm and trying to figure out the storm breakdowns based on the guides about Miller A vs B vs inland track storms CWG published. It was comments on those articles which was how I even found this forum (which I've mentioned before as invaluable and some place I love). Now I'm now majoring in Environmental Science and plan to take every atmospheric science course I can (already took the base one and one about microclimatology); I've even managed to learn the processes behind some of the articles the team has published, but I will always be your teams debt. Thank you both for the important forecasting/media outreach you all do to keep people safe, and for making science interesting.
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