SnowenOutThere

In fairness not much to even pound What a mess. We still got time but an outcome like this isn't unlikely. Between this week and next week I'd say they're both events worth watching but def not worth any investment.

Now this is something that could work out for us! If it stays NS dominant then I have trouble thinking of a storm strong enough to be above a 2-4 (which isnt bad!) and not run into mixing problems. However, if we get a wave pass south of us we could actually get a 3-6 or even more if everything goes well. Still not an ideal setup so anything major is probably off the table - I mean look at that Great Lakes Low - but I want to see this trend continue.

I'm worried about the thermal conditions we'll see if the storm exists. The 6z Euro AI shows my worry pretty well when looking at the 850mb/wind chart It has the 850 low right over the great lakes and bringing in warm air from the Gulf. While we get some grace by our cold conditions leading in its not like we have a high to the north to save us. Just don't really know what the upside to this storm would be? The CMC H5 vort shows that maybe we could get a storm if we get the pass under us but otherwise I don't think a more negative trough would help us due to the thermal issues it would bring. Just not really enthused about the setup besides maybe a clipper like storm; but even that may just be a mix/rain

Listen its 18z run was hall of fame dogshit. Comparatively 0z is just a far eastern outlier!

HRRR went west!

Guys its almost time!

I think the ultimate healthiest way would be to completely avoid models/forecasts all together and just be pleasantly surprised when it happens. That and trips to WV. Though I agree its too late for us but we can still make it better by limiting exposure.

Is it just cope to say they will show up as we get closer in? I know that in some of these patterns its a thing where we only see threats show up at shorter lead times but don't know if that applies here.

I agree, its not the pattern. We've simply gotten unlucky. If anything it is a testament to this pattern that we've managed to still get a significant snowstorm! I am excited to see where it goes but do you have any idea why we don't seem to have any upcoming waves after this one that are super obvious?

I think between last February and last week I've finally gotten the joy of this hobby beaten out of me. At this point it simply is what it is and the atmosphere will do what it will. No need to get upset or invested about it until its snowing; after all, when in my life has it trended to not ruin a storm.

Its okay, some storms aren't meant to be. This storm will probably be one of them. Its not its fault or anything but was just the hand the atmosphere dealt us. That said, I hope we see a brilliant reverse model bust to "balance out" our last storm, or last February, but we aren't owed it.

I love the NWS (I am trying to intern with them after all!) but I'm starting to become a bit skeptical of their snowfall totals. They predicted over 8 inches of snow/sleet and I ended up with 5. Before that in NYC they predicted double of what I got. I don't think this is necessarily a bad thing to hedge your forecast to motivate public officials towards the snowier outcomes but I do think they should be read with that goal in mind.

I still just can't see this storm delivering for people west of I-95 or north of I-64. We would need the coastal low to jump so far west and with the wave spacing out west I think its nearly impossible. It would take the same (if not more so) level of coincidences that made last weeks storm into a cutter to happen here to bring this storm back for most of our forum. Which once again, is possible, but extremely improbable.

We're due for a Cape storm. Is what it is. I cant help but feel good for the NC weenies who got rug pulled so hard last week to get this storm as recompense. I do wish it managed to reach up to help through central VA to alleviate my personal rug pull too but at the very least I'm glad NC gets snow.

Yep, the season isn't over but this storm probably wont be the one. Though, rough time tracking between these two weeks.

My stance on this storm hasn't much changed. Despite the amazing H5 pattern this particular storm has been a long shot. The best run of the Euro ens runs never got DC above 30% chance for an inch of snow! While the storm isn't set in stone yet we need to see some H5 changes by tomorrow at this time or else its probably over. Still hoping that personally I get the non-coastal to form far enough north to get some light snow.

Just chiming in to say that last night 18z runs were the first that made me think this storm could be a legitimate possibility for the forum. So far through the 6z runs my opinion hasn't really changed. I still think for areas west of 95 nothing is more likely than something; but now I can at least see a chance of something happening. I also think south of 1-64 is in a decent position to see something thanks to the initial burst of precip as the streams phase. The NWS seems to put today as the day models start to lock down a solution so I think reconvening at tomorrow's 6z runs will give us a full picture of what will occur.

I think the AFD is by far the best and most succent analysis of this setup possible: KEY MESSAGE 3...Monitoring the potential for a coastal system this weekend. Very favorable storm patten in terms of analogs for big snows in the Mid-Atlantic this weekend. A 50/50 low & -NAO, Idaho Ridge, blocking over the Hudson Bay, and trough moving into the east Pac. Couldn`t ask for a better synoptic setup, but the formation of a storm remains in the details of this highly sensitive pattern. Guidance continues to show a Miller A type Nor`easter (it has been a while for one to form, let alone show up in model guidance). While the ceiling is certainly high for this storm, there is equally if not higher odds it just skirts out to see as indicated by the latest 00Z guidance and ensembles. Future runs will have to be seen if this is a trend or noise. How the TPV evolves will be one of the biggest factors on if this storm comes to fruition or not and impacts land. Regardless, expect fluctuations over the next day or two until the pattern is better sampled as associated energy is onshore across the western US.

Its been a slow bleed the wrong way since 12z yesterday but still should get it done for at least the Eastern shore if not more.

BTW the DGZ is amazing on the GFS, unlike the past storm this would be a legit several thousand thick feet DGZ

The wind is something else as well

Just chiming into say absolutely classic look

Yep, I thought it would be a bit better but the trough was just a bit more positive tilted than 12z. That said, you can see how it trended better with the areas that get slammed receiving 3ft+ of snow.

Canadian so far seems relatively unchanged. Maybe a bit north with the overall pattern, though it could just be a bit slower.

For everyone wondering I think this is the dictionary definition of edging