SnowenOutThere

Also hey everyone please be mindful of our snow removal/city planning thread. Make sure all relevant storm discussion stays out of here.

Ah I was in NYC for the Boxing Day storm this year and wondered why there was so little salt compared to our roads down here. I do think the less salt and more focus on clearing is the better way for a city and it’s more environmentally friendly.

Love to see that spread east with the initial thump of precip being heavier and snow. I think at this point we want a more amped up storm and just bank on that as our floor and ceiling.

I wonder if you could do a whole case study on events like that. It’s something I’ll think about as I progress through my college courses and humanities writings.

Dang DC’s mayor forecast gotta include rain in germantown, 0 inches at DCA and then 12 inches in NW DC. Tough world out there for mayors tweeting about snow.

I was about to comment that. Basically always trust the GFS 270 hours out.

I said I didn’t want to get political in my post discussing the initial claim of the NYC mayors tweet, that post on the other hand is a political statement yes. I mean we’ve butt heads on this stuff way back when so ofc I know we have our biases.

Man I’m not sure what would you want him to say? Forecasting is tricky, I myself put out a roughly 4-14 inch prediction for Nova because I can’t say with confidence where in that range we will lie.

DC south is sleet at this point

I mean the GFS is a bit faster with the sleet line but also has more QDF falling.

Btw NWS not backing down with their snowfall maps

Yeah it actually gets the coastal going.

Its trying its best to miss the SW phase. I assume this means drier first part but still amped second part.

I think both? Also has less 850mb winds from the south so far so it'll be colder too

Further east NS and further S SW. Seems to want to stick to its guns.

Ready for the GFS

Ah my bad, guess the map just showed freezing rain for funsies. Though with a layer that warm I'd think freezing rain isn't unlikely?

Honestly, I think next snowstorm I should block all weather sites and just let it ride till two days beforehand. The 0z runs Wednesday ruined me a bit and I forced myself to not look till 12z which helped me accept that its sleet town. I just wish that when I saw a singular model run that was bad for us it wasn't a death sentence. It's like we need every single run to show the jackpot and any deviation becomes our reality.

Find an old one from a previous storm and rage bait people with it.

Sorry after this week I want that snow stripe over Bermuda right now. At day five Bahamas are a good target and at day 1 I want the storm over east NC.

No, Freezing rain. Was saying that the other globals with their sleet solutions are wrong according to this high res model.

If the NAM replacement has any clue about the thermal profiles the sleet bomb for Central VA is going to be legit freezing rain.

I know but man I don't remember a single storm over a foot well. So to me we're using a one in ten year setup and it failed because... too much phasing. What the fuck. Since I've started this hobby we couldn't buy phasing to save my life when we needed it. Look at it from my or @bncho's perspective. We have tracked storms for years now and never once have we gotten trends that don't hurt us from day five in. We've seen now two extremely good chances of a major snowstorm within day five fall apart (ofc this year's example is less extreme, though it had an even better signal). It sucks, living through this back to back years makes me want to force myself to change hobbies because it just isn't worth any time investment. It sucks man and though I'll take a dynamic sleety mess cause its cool I'll be honest if my whole time tracking is anything to go by the worst outcome will happen and it'll some NAM outrunning situation. I mean why is it that when watching a major storm and something goes the wrong way (0z run Wednesday) we just aren't ever able to recover even incrementally. Sorry for the rant but man I'm just tired of always watching things fall apart.