SnowenOutThere

People sleeping on the 240 hour CMC. Would be an absolute smackdown

Was gonna comment on it but damn its a crazy H5 look yet we lose thermals before the precip enters southern VA

I agree. I would definitely be more excited for this one if I was in Cvill or down where you are as it stands its far enough out to see a shift that ends up favoring us. The individual ens low pressures really just need a couple hundred mile shift and we'd be in business.

The issue isn't that the pattern isn't blocky as shown by this ridiculous 500mb map But instead that the southern shortwave which delivers our storm is just barely captured and amplified by the northern ULL. We are genuinely like 12 hours away from a complete nuclear capture scenario with the displaced ULL and the southern energy fully phasing instead of just helping it gain latitude. I mean just look at how close we get to greatness. Though arguably the best part about the Euro run is that even after this storm we are still in a great pattern. We lose the Atlantic a bit but still have a great EPO and PNA with an active southern stream. Would be a fun time and great to see the pattern reflected in the OPs.

Damn you just beat me too it. I was too busy looking at the 500mb and surface maps to guess how much we'd get. Tbh I expected a bit more with such a textbook look but the storm moves quick

As mentioned by other posters the time period after this particular storm signal look to be more promising but I really cant help but like this depiction for the 4th. We have a good amount of vorticity to our south, a block to our north, and surface low pressure across Georgia in a position to bring in both gulf and Atlantic moisture. Of course, as depicted the bowling ball to our north would suppress the storm but for a week out I really can't hate it. We just need to see the trends but as it currently stands it is more than trackable.

Managing to snow again here. One great thing about this storm has been good snowflake growth and size. If only we managed to get the qdf or avoid the warm air aloft

That said I think that the current band orientation may save myself and nyc from a proper all out failure of less than 3in to hitting the extreme low end range of conservative forecasters.

Looks like we finally got some bands of precip to fill in. Though it’s still weirdly convective like with narrow bands. Wonder if the lake effect may help lower Manhattan and Long Island not bust as horribly as upper manhattan.

Storm looks to be over and the grand total is possibly an optimistic 1-2 inches thanks to a flip back to snow for a bit… I would not envy the email addresses of any meteorologist in NYC right now

The areas riding the mixing line are gonna make out like bandits considering the forcing and huge flakes

It’s a bit of a yikes to cut amounts in half and those still be optimistic. It’s not the Mets fault because anywhere north of where the mix line set up would cash in but man there will be some angry people tomorrow

We will not be the only city to have a Boxing Day disaster after today

So far it is still all sleet as a lull sets up over NYC proper. It’s reaching into unmitigated disaster territory if it doesn’t flip back soon.

Still all sleet in upper east Manhattan

Switched back to snow sleet and the Long Island radar shows the snow line collapsing south…

@Ji My god it’s all sleet. 10 minutes of parachutes then now full on ice blasting. Everyone please pour one out for the NWS 8.4 inch prediction as this may be a historic bust.

Upper east side Manhattan

My god it’s just dumping sleet pour one out for every single NYC forecast

Just wait for the main bands to push in and it’ll be fine

Hasn’t been snowing for almost 30 minutes in east Manhattan lmao

Being completely honest that sub forum sucks so bad compared to ours it’s insane. We have 3x times the quality posters just wish we would get some snow more often

Dude this was never DCs storm check my post on page one. Even nyc is probably gonna get inside subsidence and completely miss our 8.4 inch prediction from the NWS

Insane signature for areas northwest of NYC, myself looks to get in that popcorn convective style precip instead of that nice band

Looks like we can see the areas of lift setting up via the spc mesoanalysis page At the 850-700mb layer we can see where the main band will probably set up over Long Island into NY state. Meanwhile higher up in the atmosphere from 700-500mb we see another area setting up slightly to the south which may suggest that NYC proper might not be completely in subsidence.