SnowenOutThere

Think I'll refrain from looking into this one for a couple days and might take a break from the past 4+ days of tracking.

My only real complaining post I can make on this is that I don't think any of these shots are particularly likely at this time so it seems to be a lot of tracking with a questionable reward. The 18/19th is still very possible but we need to start seeing signs of life soon; beyond that is too far to really get invested in so they are low probability until proven otherwise.

I think we have to test a classic nino to see if this is the case. I am of the PSU school of thought where I think we are trending towards bad but our past decade is still abnormally horrific. That said, if we get a real nino and see storm after storm of mid 30s with a limited snow sector to the northwest it’s probably wraps.

Considering Florida is completely gone from the map maybe this is a post climate change hell world. That said, fuck generative ai, we need our brains more than ever.

The issue of the 12z GFS for the cape storm is not the southern vort - which pulls its weight and tries to develop - but instead the northern vort lobe which ruins any chance of it amplifying.

Gotta keep it that way

Hmmm maybe we should delete this thread and gaslight anyone who wasn’t awake into believing it never existed

Don’t know what that is but it’s NOT a clipper by any respectable clippers definition.

It was a delicate balance tbf, the only reason we got such a great dig is because the best vorticity was centered on the southern part of the lobe so it pinched south. Without that there's nothing that really helps it do that.

I was gonna make an extrap HRRR joke but highk don't think it would be good so nvm! Biggest GFS run for 1/11/2026 past 10:25pm

See id be against it if it was the only game in town but when we got three windows we gotta be siloing out the dying ones

It gets a name upgrade if it locks in tonight

Created. Made it clear I’m not taking ownership like December storms

Decided id lend my thread starting luck to this event. Let’s see how the cards fall. That said wanna make it clear I’m not taking responsibility over this storm like the December ones so don’t yell at me!

Wonder if your time period would've worked out on the 18z Euro. It has a completely different (and better) look than 12z

So far with the Euro's run it doesn't seem like an improvement.

Can we start a thread to silo the whining there?

Agreed, but should've checked the thread name before bringing up semantics: "January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion"

Besides to those who absolutely need a hit of digital blue the GFS has the 23-25th window with a rather fun storm if it can pull north.

To all the people complaining in here I strongly recommend the panic room thread. Currently we are tracking three different windows, and it is unlikely that all will work out. For now we just gotta wait and see what happens. As for the 16th nobody here should put much stock into whatever solution (snowy or not) until its near gametime, and that said with a setup like it we won't often score so not snowing doesn't mean we need to turn this thread into a 2027 winter discussion! Think back to around a week ago where we we're writing off the pattern till the 20th and beyond! At least now we have something fun to track so before complaining at least try to understand the progression of the storm cause that alone is fun.

Cape storm is a painful watch as the shortwaves just destructively interfere with each other and ruin the setup. Luckily I don't think it would've taken much to change that into a hit.

With my analytical post I don't think its time to cliff jump yet; this storm is just way too complicated to know if that change is real or imagined. However, if we continue to see the GFS (and Euro moves to it) fail to consolidate around a southern vort max by tomorrow at 12zish or absolute latest tomorrow 0z I think then it is time to call it.

Its an odd run as several things go better for us. 1. The shortwave out ahead of it is further northeast which should help it amplify (unless for some reason this is too much spacing so it stays positively tilted?). T2. he wave spacing behind it also appears a bit better with more separation too. However, the reason it fails seems to be a difference around the hour 60-80 mark where there isnt quite the same level of vorticity maximum on the southern side of the lobe as it dives south so the trough doesn't quite consolidate and remains spread out. 18z on top and 12z on bottom. Can really see how this messes up the storm as it progresses east to our area where its all one big vort instead of being a southern maximum. Unfortunately, by remaining broader it also ruins our ability to go negative as quickly which really hurts us even more. 12z once again shows that difference with the additional southern closed isobar helping it tilt neg more. Hopefully this changes back but as a reminder this happens earlier in the run so we will need to watch for improvement here soonish to keep the chances of a good storm up.

It almost appears similar to the Icon with it washing out the vort which the GFS and Euro make our storm from. If that happens as depicted its game over, and with that only being 4 days away we should know sooner than later whos right.

It has a very weird solution (not that ANY of the models show a "normal" storm). It pretty much has the vort lobe which all other models have takeover get killed off by one in southern Canada... which seems odd. However, I think that it did improve H5 wise and was generally further south so if it didn't have that progression it would've been Euro or GFS like.