SnowenOutThere

Alright, enough time has passed to throw this solution out the window. So what's figure out what went wrong as an exercise for this winter. So, our setup relied on a branch of the NS detaching and creating an unusually deep trough over the east coast in order to bring both cold air and the correct wind flow (NNW) to catch moisture from the lakes. Now, what initially would cause this NS trough? Turns out it was an interaction with a SW wave helping to pull it down (GFS run from when it was snowy) Compare that to it's current run. Though we still have our two main players it's interesting how different the circumstance is. Firstly, the interaction is occurring further east, which obviously hurts us. However, what is most interesting is that blob of vorticity over central Mexico as its a Hurricane ejecting it's energy eastward and thus pulling the pattern to be progressive. On the old runs the GFS brought it out to sea instead. Look at the knock on effects it has! On the old run you have a near textbook PNA ridge Now, you can see how there is more energy getting held underneath the ridge (the Hurricane's remains are now in there) which causes a flatter, and thus less blocky, ridge. Some other things you can notice is the previously detached low upstream of our trough has now morphed with it, which reduces the blocking pattern, and that the Artic in general is less amplified than before. All in all, pretty much everything went the wrong way for the mountains to pick up a significant snowstorm. Now, the reason I did this is 1. I'm bored and just took a climatology exam 2. To warmup for winter 3. To see how the models did. As mentioned in my first post nearly all models but the operational Euro had a pattern conducive to accumulating snow, and the reason the Euro didn't is because even back over the weekend it was correctly modeling the tropical impact over Mexico. This should be a lesson against trusting the AI models, as even they were wrong. Furthermore, the hurricane change was within 5 days from this weekend, and it was a dramatic miss, which should call into question any forecast beyond day 4 for synoptics (assuming our current funding for NOAA's soundings and data collection stays the same). Frankly, I wonder if our bad miss on the ice/snow line for last January's storm would've happened if we weren't cutting their data intake as it was a huge miss by our modeling for the storm track and impacts even at day 3. The bottom line of this post is we need to be extremely cautious in trusting the models come this winter. They simply are not preforming as well as in years past when it comes to what matters for us. I personally would not even trust the general synoptic pattern outside of day 3. Mets, or anyone else, please let me know how I did or if my reasoning was solid!

Around 3.1 according to nearby gauges in Charlottesville, probably had some upslope enhancement, and there are still puddles on the side streets. Home gauge in NOVA shows a respectable 2.9 inches of rain as well. Do wonder if this storm bears as a forewarning of what we might expect this winter if we get more inland storm tracks due to a warmer baroclinic boundary pushing inland.

First mention of winter wx in the morning AFD! Behind the frontal system, surface high pressure builds over the central CONUS beginning on Friday before shifting eastward. A tight pressure gradient between the surface high and the departing low pressure system leads to breezy conditions across the forecast area Friday night into Saturday. Northwest winds gust 20 to 30 knots, with higher elevations gusting up to 40 knots. Wind headlines may be needed across the higher elevations but we will continue to monitor. It`s also worth mentioning that with gusty northwest winds, upslope snow showers are possible along the Alleghenies on Saturday with high temperatures staying in the 30s across the ridges. Little to no accumulation is expected although the first flakes of the season are possible.

Classes posted for spring semester and I'll finally get to take the course I've been waiting for! Currently with the professor as he teaches Intro to Climatology or the grad level version of my Atmosphere and Weather course I took last fall and he's been great (test tomorrow though). Excited to learn some more stuff that'll help me write better posts on here (hopefully) in time for synoptic season!

You're seeing a fight between the trough being modeled progressively (Euro) and being held back (GFS). Here's Friday at 2pm on the GFS That trough then drops south and nearly induces a coastal low to form as it tilts negatively. The Euro is on a different planet, as it doesn't ever have that energy detach fully from the more northward low. The Euro AI is sort of in-between, with the low detaching and swinging south but not as intense Still have a long ways to go but we should hopefully see consensus emerge mid-week. If the Euro AI to GFS envelope is right then it'll be time to look at the close range models to see topographic effects and possible places that'll snow.

Good rain event in Charlottesville with over 2.1 inches in the city with heavy rain overhead. In NOVA for the weekend after seeing Maybe Happy Ending with my family yesterday and have just passed 1 inch of rain.

People are sleeping on what could be the first snowfall event of the season for parts of our subforum next weekend! Both the CMC, GFS, GFS AI, and GFS/CMC model ens are on board for accumulating snow for the ridges in WV, though the Euro hasn't bought on yet. The setup makes sense, a strong early season trough will spur upslope snow showers after the front passage with some aid from the Great Lakes. Currently, this is forecasted to take place during the night too which helps with thermals, though the GFS has them bottom out in the mid 20s so there's some room for front timing. Of course, this is still far out in the future and a weaker frontal passage, more progressive trough, or any number of factors could ruin the setup, but it's worth paying attention to for an early snow chase to see both fall foliage in the valleys and snow at the peaks.

Notice how the people now agitating the thread with anti-hurricane center posts are the same ones who were absent till landfall. They’re not worth the time to debunk.

We all know that this storm will likely be weakening on approach, but when landfall is around 12 hours away you really want to start seeing signs soon. As it currently is presenting it appears to be a cat 3, which underwent rapid intensification a couple days ago and has since intensified steadily with a jump overnight as rotating columns established themselves, that is still in that process of an intensification jump.

Cloud deck reminds me of how it looks before a big winter's storm. Last year before our sleetfest we had a brilliant sunrise in the morning. Crazy what some high clouds can do

Cross posting here from the Mid-Atl subform. Crazy the scale of this storm with the jet streak induced diffluence aloft.

Managed to get my (now major) hurricane sunrise this morning! Some low clouds blocked it a bit, but still well worth the early morning.

Getting that look now with concentric towers going up on either side of the eye. Shame the Hurricane Hunters had to pull out, hopefully a new mission goes out soon.

Looked at the soundings and I think we should have a great Hurricane sunrise/set tomorrow! HRRR shows high clouds over the region by sunrise with soundings seemingly there to support it. Same story but a thicker layer is there for the evening/night. Would love to get some Met feedback to back up by hunch before I set an alarm for 6:00am! @WxUSAF@Eskimo Joe@Rhino16 @CAPE

It better be. One of my favorite parts of the season is marveling at the synoptics behind those storms (and using them for practice!). Maybe I’ll make some breakdowns of the really crazy ones.

We all know the reason we love this forum is not the analysis, the friends, or the banter - but to see blue (maybe even purple or pink!) pixels appear on your screen. This thread is dedicated to the storms that could've been, should've been, or are plain ridiculous. Today officially kicks the start to our season with a good old fashioned CFS run!

It’s ridiculous how almost every storm in the gulf seems to rapidly intensify now.

Seems to be right on the verge of becoming a hurricane based on the latest pass. No new pressure measurement so they may have missed the center.

Forgot this whole subform existed till now! Though the recon this morning showed a weaker storm than expected based on IR presentation, it also appears to be on it's way to vertical alignment of its low levels with the convection flares now surrounding the center. Will be very interesting to see if the next recon flight shows strengthening as it flies through the storm; if it does, then we might be setting up for a bout of rapid intensification overnight as I believe that is the best window in terms of wind shear (and diurnal max).

Will caution those who loves the latest CANSIPS pattern. While it looks good for storm track, the heights rising off the East coast give me some pause as we've been burned by a good NAO high pressure linking with the southeastern ridge. Additionally, with temperature anomalies in the Gulf stream being several degrees above average I wonder if the models may underestimate the southeastern ridge. Of course, too far out to draw any real conclusions, but I might favor a further west track than the H5 alone would suggest. Think it might be a big year for the mountains, especially the ridges that will be a few (possibly key) degrees colder. Also think @mitchnick's theory that it will be winter where we might have to be patient and watch a lot of rainstorms that slowly pull the boundary south before we get a limited window to get a follow up wave. That said, I could see a @psuhoffman nightmare situation where we see the boundary be pushed south before getting a perfect track rainstorm with snow confined solely to the high mountains due to just not having enough cold air. By the end of October we should have a better picture as the October NAO negative correlation to winter's NAO is our first real significant one.

Back in Charlottesville. Got to 43 degrees for the low and was around 62 degrees when biking to Grounds. Perfect fall morning weather. Sat outside for a bit before class just to soak it in.

I win! 28 degrees down in Cannan valley this morning. House we rented was on a hill and stayed above freezing, while the valley had pockets of freezing fog and frost. Will find some more pictures from my trip to share later.

New GFS run is a complete cave. Glad this isn’t a snow storm or the 12z euro into 18z gfs would’ve made this place a bloodbath.

Made a PDF report of winter storms from WV during that winter. Looks like some moisture bomb gulf lows translated to major winter storms for the ridges. Should bring some solace to know that even if we completely torch this winter snow, and maybe a blizzard, will only be a drive away. SED_events.pdf Charleston WV even has a map for a January event and notes the cutoff due to temperatures. Not sure I've ever seen a map like this! Look at the VA side, you have the blue ridge in Nelson county picking up over a foot of snow while the valleys had cold rain.

Tipping points are a hell of a drug. The issue is that climate change is of course gradual, the average temperatures trend up over a 30 year period, but to those living it appears as these shocking discrepancies. To the data aggregate it appears as a line ticking, then jumping, up. But to us, climate change appears as a Hurricane Helene, as another heat done over Europe, and as a realization that “it doesn’t snow here like it used to”. The 2016 El Niño and these oceanic processes are our heat transport mechanisms, and when you have major El Niño events you release a ton of heat from the oceans and thus effectively “jump” into the next, ever warmer, climate. It will snow again, we will have a HECS again (it may even be this winter!), but you will also see these droughts where the isotherm has simply shifted too far north for us to reliably get snowstorms. It is what it is.