SnowenOutThere

Thanks for the advice to look up a bit higher for the jet streaks. I used to do that but I forgot and assumed H5 lmao. Anyways, the real thing that my analysis made me realize is that if the GFS/CMC were to shift 50-100 miles west we actually have some real potential here. I mean right now we can see how the jet streaks are too far displaced east and subsequently so is the low pressure. An adjustment west wouldn't be crazy and we'd suddenly be looking at a dangerous setup! Of course, that would require something going right for us which seems... hard to come by recently.

Why I like the GFS and CMC Part 1: 500mb wind analysis Both the GFS and CMC have a potent ULL at the H5 layer dive southward and close off from the prevailing flow. This directs a 500mb jet streak to develop directly to the south of this closed off low and if the strength/placement of the the ULL is correct it puts us directly in the LER (left exit region) of a rather intense jet streak which promotes upper level diffluence I mean look at that! It's nearly perfectly placed to help us squeeze out whatever moisture we have in the column by lifting it upwards. The impact of our jet streak induced diffluence is easily seen in our vorticity map. Notice how the vorticity nearly perfectly follows where that jet streak is located. This is a great sign that we could get some good lift throughout the atmosphere! If we are nitpicking then I would generally want to see a ULL that is both further south, a bit west (though too far starts to risk thermal issues), but most importantly is more neg tilt and stronger! Part 2: Moisture Transport and Low Level Winds Since the DGZ seems to be located around 700mb on the soundings and we have lift from the 900mb layer up into the DGZ we are looking to see moisture transport anywhere between 900-700mb. Luckily that is exactly what the GFS offers! We can see on the 850mb wind maps we have a closed low off the NC coast which promotes easterly winds off the Atlantic which helps provide us a decent moisture fetch. This same principal applies for the layers of 925-700ish mb but the wind becomes more out of the south; which though is worse than directly from the Atlantic it's still not terrible. Part 3: Baroclinicity There is a rather pronounced baroclinic boundary for this low to feed off of and intensify in accordance with it and the favorable H5 dynamics. As we can see we have a rather strong thermal gradient right off NC with temperatures reaching near 70 next to a 20+ degree temp drop to the NW. My only concern is that this gradient is more W-E focused where we would rather have a N/S gradient to help the H5 pull the storm up the coast. In conclusion There is a lot to like about this setup IF the GFS/CMC is right! While placement of where the coastal low is captured and various details which are very impactful are yet to be worked out as long as we have these players on the field we got a chance! However, this is not a post necessarily stating I think this is likely or the most plausible outcome (we really need the Euro to come aboard) but simply analyzing what this storm has the potential to be.

Going to make a relatively brief synoptic analysis of why I actually sorta like this setup IF we get a H5 setup akin to the GFS or CMC.

Hey all, for my climate near the ground class I would love if someone could remind me of the name of that one prominent frost hollow near Snowshoe I think.

I think the main divergence is in if we can get the coastal to help us out. The 18z Euro shows a solution where we get pretty much no help from the coastal besides aiding in some moisture fetch and instead rely on the H5 dynamics to get any sort of snowfall. Meanwhile, the other camp of the GFS and CMC instead have the coastal prominently help out the H5 max through aiding in lift, moisture transport, and even cold air through the CCB. Is a bit of a egg and chicken game too where a stronger H5 vortmax is more likely to capture/induce a more favorable surface low position.

Big jump in number of members with at least an inch of snow. Up from 30-40% to 60-70%

An underrated aspect of the high end scenario runs is how this type of storm would go a decent way in starting to alleviate the drought our area is experiencing. Additionally, I feel that its been a while since we've seen a true photogenic paste bomb storm which sticks to everything. Hopefully this can be the one.

This is completely true but with that sound snow would be coming down. Look at that lift in the DGZ and it saturated. Agree that accumulation will be hurt but it wouldn't have any problem sticking to grass.

Beautiful occlusion as the low moves out to sea

Snow ending for all but Delmarva.

Can see the dipole low form in response to the best H5 diffluence being over the coast.

Placed right under the left exit quadrant of the jet streak

Quite the nice H5 and surface low panel

No matter what it is a hit. Now its time to see the upside.

H5 vort at hour 93 seems to support a tuck

Surface is low is both notably stronger and focused more westward at hour 87.

GFS appears to be coming in with a deeper H5 low. Now just need to see if it can 1. induce cyclogenesis soon enough 2. capture it

Wait and see what'll happen. I don't really care to synoptically analyze this like I did with our December storms and January event because unfortunately the more likely outcome as of now is no snow. Most ens keep the possibility of an inch of snow somewhere in the 40-60% range which frankly shows this isn't worth getting excited over. Just need to pray that the H5 pass trends further south or west depending on the model to capture the surface low in the ideal spot. Nothing we can do but hurry up and wait.

Both have Charlottesville only gaining snow run to run. #Trend #Snowtown

With this setup maybe we have so many opposing ways this storm can go wrong that they end up canceling each other out

I hope ships avoid that blob of FGEN or risk getting sucked up to the 700mb layer

From my brief analysis the issue is that the H5 jumps east a bit which prevents the surface low from retrograding near Chesapeake and crushing us. Don't quite know why this happens but I'm not too worried about the specific outcomes till later this week. Was very close.

Can see how you get the dynamics that jump east with the coastal

H5 captures and stacks with surface low here

Now thats how you do a CCB