SnowenOutThere

Thanks! I got super lucky with the sun breaking out. Always love entering Whiteoak through the lower entrance as the whole place is just magical.

Tried to hike around the mountains south of Shenandoah and hit Crabtree falls. Unfortunately, it was located on the north slope which still had copious wet, slippery, and annoying sleet. I got .3 miles in before deciding it wasn't worth it. Instead I got some pictures of the country around which was a decent consolation prize.

I agree. What’s it range?

Frankly, if you were chasing some of the Euro Ai runs with a foot plus for the forum from a miller B and that’s why the gfs was disappointing you’re delusional. Not saying we can’t get that scenario to work someday but I would never, ever, take the low chance it has of verifying over a higher percent but lower max storm like the GFS output

You’re in a slightly different spot than me or some other members of the forum. You can gamble more with a primary secondary interaction thanks to having a colder base climo and being located north. Frankly, not even NOVA should really want to bet on that happening This is a true and valid point but think of it this way. I am often the warning shot for nova much like you guys are the warning shot for Fredrick and points north. If I am getting completely skunked by a miller B it shows who’s next in line to get shafted. Meanwhile, with a setup as the 18z gfs had it you have less upside yes, but way more wiggle room

Now I like that gfs run way more than 12z. Less complicated and not missing to our NE. Yes lower ceiling but as is also less likely to completely screw us over

And its right next to February 20th! Storms always go well near that date and never fall apart within four days!

How do you even get this sounding? What sort of meteorological setup gets you this?

There's reason to be optimistic but I really can't buy into this being a real significant snowstorm till we get inside two days. Additionally, I'm at UVA so I'd need something truly crazy to get snow out of this. Sorta nice to not worry about this one

Now THIS is how you thread the needle!

Begging people to not get invested in a late season Miller B to get a major winter storm. It's more than possible but unless you're north of PSU its not worth it to get invested till we got the track down to an atypically south storm! Hoping it works out for you guys but we've seen how this normally plays out!

Nah I don't got a dog in this fight. I'm in Cvill lmao

CMC shows the potential danger of instead having too strong of a low that is located too far west. Once again, its a thread the needle event so we just got to wait and see.

Then I don't want this thread to be clogged with people complaining IF the Miller B does its normal thing.

Listen, this storm is a loss for me. I know that and frankly I've had my fill of snow and ice when walking on grounds. I'm forecasting for NOVA for this storm.

Once again to illustrate this point look at the snowfall distribution 6z vs 12z. 6z on top 12 on bottom. Yes it still snows for most of the subforum. However, notice where the snowfall max is located. We went from a north south gradient to a more typical Millar B NE/SW gradient. This is fine; however, its the first indication that we could see this go the way of a normal Millar B. I do not endorse this run of the GFS but it is something to be wary of going forward. In my opinion we want a stronger and more southern initial low pressure and do not want to root for a weaker low even if it is more south as it will simply require more time to develop and be more likely to miss to our NE.

On its own this run is fine. However, if you step this another time that intense snow band will only go further north/east and possibly end up as the classic miller B late developer.

Eh I disagree that it is a good step. If we were to move one more tick this way we lose enough intensity to really get good CCB and dynamic cooling. I would prefer a stronger and more south storm than a weaker and more south storm.

GFS will probably be worse. Less intense vort/upper low over the plains

By rug pulls I mean the storm itself disappears. Personally, I am hesitant to think this will be a major snowstorm especially for where I'm at. If I was up in NOVA I'd be a bit more excited though still waiting.

Been studying for my test today in 30 minutes so haven't been paying too much attention to the models but this sums up my thinking. Besides the December and one January storm every other setup seemed more likely to fail than not. Honestly, I've checked out of tracking since Jan 25th because nothing ever showed likelihood even close to that! This is the first storm since then where everything checks out. The models are bouncing around but never too far from a snowstorm, the pattern itself checks out, and its unlikely that it completely rug pulls. Will be paying more attention throughout the rest of the week.

Its near the end of winter. I think starting that thread way out in December for next year might be better as it allows it to become established for all the main threats.

On topic to this storm but look to clinch between .8-.9 inches of rain. Going to see the streams quite happy with that and the remaining snowmelt. Hopefully will hike out Tuesday to some waterfalls!