SnowenOutThere

Yeah you wont at winchesters weak ass 1000ft elevation but I’m talking 3000ft+. You basically transform the whole climate regime as you lose close to 8 whole degrees adiabatically! Ofc, this storm isn’t ideal for the elevation component as it’s flooding warmth even up to 850 in some runs with warm air but it’s well within the realm of possibility to get snow there.

I mean moist adiabatic lapse rate is around 4 degrees Fahrenheit per 1000 feet so if you're just looking to see snow and willing to drive out to the mountains/Shenandoah we are really just focusing on the 850mb and 925mb temps to be at 0 or below. As long as we have that we should be good for the mountains.

Highk a 2-4in non elevation dependent is the best to hike up in. Keeps the roads passable but at the top of the mountain you get 6+

Agree hard with this. The storm is as far out as the Jan 25th storm was when it was showing a flush hit of 2+ feet of snow! Things can still change majorly, who knows this might evolve into a cutter to Chicago or a storm which doesn't even get precip into VA.

Absolutely great list. I personally like the sunny days within 10 days of the winter equinox as you get a very pastel sun/light which is very good for landscape photography compared to the more harsh summer light.

Since this sorta stuff often ends up in this thread I'll put it here too

While we all wait for the Euro I made a fun thread that reminds us why we actually do this hobby! Please add your own contrabutions!

Thought it was time for another fun thread! Curious to know what everyone's favorite thing that happens in the sky. Of course, we all know the basic answers of snow/severe but I'm hoping to get some more in depth answers. For example snow squalls or orthographic events instead of just plain snow! Personally my favorite meteorological events are Hurricane Sunsets/Sunrises due to the upper anticyclone spreading out high level cirrus wave clouds which capture the sun extremely well to get brilliant sunsets. A non meteorological pick would be Blood Moons as I just think they're neat to be both predictable/easy while still really cool. Visual examples of my own work for each!

I wouldn't quite call it cold cirrus. Maybe slightly above seasonable cirrus?

I bet the euro doesn’t even make 150,000 dollars a year

Can feel the sun already this morning. At around 80% coverage of sleet but expecting that to fall off today. My guess for the high will be 64 degrees.

If it ain’t going to snow we might as well torch. I’m done freezing my ass off walking to class.

Will use this in some of my argumentative essays for my modern political theory class. Thank you

Btw for those trying to understand PSU's argument about higher heights in the 500mb layer as a result of climate change here are some slides from my fall course about how geopotential height works. Basically, higher heights are caused by a thicker slice of atmosphere below the 500mb layer. Warmer air is a thicker slice of air due to the Ideal Gas Law.

Mhm probably the best advice, but supposing you had to what would you say.

For those wondering yes this is how we know we're in true midseason form. BTW @psuhoffman what's your advice for debating people.

My favorite weather hiking is arguably the Shenandoah's in a good upslope event. Frankly its otherworldly to ascend into the cloud deck and go from showers to a downpour on the mountainside. While I love my snow hikes rain hikes are even more dynamic. Hoping I get some opportunities for that this spring with temperatures around 60.

Please God let the HRRR be right it has me nearly reach 70 degrees tomorrow.

Ehhhh its progression makes sense sadly. Not saying its right but with this pattern we are relying solely on timing so a situation where the 50/50 is too progressive and we end up without any cold at all is possible. Though I guess it's a less damning storm in terms of PSU's climate change book if that happens.

I think that makes sense. We have a loaded up storm that will bring precip so its just a matter of if there is enough cold to take advantage (assuming the track isn't terrible).

I agree with this. The past 10 years or so have been historically bad and not the sole fault of climate change. Frankly, if it was just climate change alone causing such a dramatic shift then I wouldn’t be in college right now because clearly our planet is mega fucked so id live up the life I had left. Thankfully, it’s not our baseline and instead just bad patterns and climate change together. We will get good winters again but they’re just harder to come by. As a last note I think this storm is a great read like you said but only if we get a “perfect track”. I mean if we get a primary in the Ohio valley or west it’s raining even if it was 1700.

Welcome to the hobby! You should’ve been here for the legendary PSU runs of 2024 and 2023 and those perfect track storms. Just diabolical low in the perfect position and 35 degrees plus heavy rain. Something I’ve found to help is I go on hikes into the mountains during those perfect track storms cause they’re still cold enough (for now lmao) to get accumulation. Though it’s sad because I’m only another 1000 ft up or so (which moist adiabatic lapse rate is 4ish degrees) and that would be our base climo a hundred years ago

Yeah dude I’m not here to say it won’t get cold or snows gonna disappear forever. Climate change takes time. Im here to say on balance we lose stuff on the margins. Additionally, that gfs run won’t be true (and god knows it won’t be right till the day after the event) but they still show a “real” possibility bound by our physical laws. That storm happens in some possible world; though hopefully not our own.