SnowenOutThere

If you look at recent radar frames you can begin to see the backfilling of precip as these forces become more active

The frontal dynamics and the fact we are in the RER quadrant of a jet streak which induces WAA and subsequent divergence aloft which results in low level convergence and lift. This lift causes air parcels to rise to the LCL (lifted condensation level) which forms the cloud base, subsequently, the parcel rises through the positive dynamics and the moist lapse rate. After that we get snowfall from the aggregation of flakes in the atmosphere. Any more questions?

Returned home and imo I think where we got that initial band will probably do very well with this event. As for the rest of us those couple crazy HRRR runs were so insane because they had that band reach southeastward so we’ll need to watch if that manages to happen

On the way back home (and to snow!)

Dunno if anyone posted the RAP but it looks pretty good for all of us

Of course, it is the long range OP GFS but it keeps things active with real chances during the Christmas period. Its first window is now within 10 days away.

I mean I think this is a bit worse though not majorly so. It has weaker temp advection so the first band fails to take off till a little bit later.

Not catastrophically so. In fact it may just be a bit later in general.

Fair warning, I do not think the latest HRRR will be quite as good as the 20z

Oh I just learned about all those fun things, especially the sub vs super geostrophic wind balance and how that leads to the Jet behavior and associated convergence and divergence alongside baroclinicity of shortwaves passing through isotherms.

Dog, Imma be so real with you I haven't been paying attention to this storm till literally around noon today. Yesterday I wrote a 10 page paper in a day (nailed it btw) and the day before that I did my atmosphere and weather final (crushed it as well) so I have not had time to go into the dynamics of this stuff sadly. Though from a very quick overview the latest HRRR has the trough a little bit deeper and position a bit souther which helps get everything moving quicker. A consequence of this change is that positive temp advection is more favored for our area (which encourages diffusion aloft and surface lift). Here is the 20z HRRR temp advection vs the 18

If this goes well for our area real credit has got to be given to the RGEM and Canadian models. The 18z keeps the good vibes going as well

That the model shows lightning flash density. To be honest I have no idea what makes lightning happen (neither did my professor the best we have is a separation of negatively charged graupel and ice crystals in a convection cell). Though I'm sure the strong lift throughout the column and positive temp advection in the 700mb layer have something to do with it.

It would even get snow to my current location in Charlottesville; though I think I won't be making that risk and I'll drive back tonight. Besides, I have been a good luck charm so far this winter and thought I'd help you guys out.

Keeps thundersnow dreams alive as well

Latest HRRR looks legit

I got an English (online) 8am Tuesday and a chemistry final (in person) 7pm Tuesday but otherwise I'm free. I've decided Ill make a list of study topics for chemistry and if I finish them it'll be a 10pm-midnight car adventure for me!

Oh man, I'm getting suckered into this one after looking over the latest models. @NorthArlington101 I know you bounced between nova and Cville so whats your advice

I mean this seems pretty legit look at that saturation and lift. Would just be dumping dendrites

Makes me tempted to drive back tonight to home

Shit drawers pattern >>> shit the blinds pattern

Just finished half of my finals and am considering a quick snow hike tomorrow but don’t know if I should drive home or out to WV

If I see 1.5 in of snow tomorrow I’ll eat some article of clothing

Why the hell not, I was all for starting a thread for a random date in winter and gassing it up for no reason

Bro go to bed