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eekuasepinniW

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Everything posted by eekuasepinniW

  1. Tracking a CME from a C2 flare. How desperate we've become. Though I did get some great pics of a G3 storm from a C7 flare back around 2002.
  2. It looks like the coronal hole arrived a bit early. It packed a bigger wallop than your typical CH. Solar wind around 670 with imf values of 17/-15 will always bring a nice G3. G3 is good for naked-eye colors and well defined features.
  3. There will be more extreme storms for sure, but a solar max with a stretch like 2001-2003, ending with the strongest flare ever observed, is unlikely. Most in this forum only have about 4 solar cycles left before we die. And the next few cycles are supposedly going to be much weaker than this one. And don't forget the geomagnetic pole is still slowly moving away from us. Next solar max is just around the corner in 2022-2025.
  4. The 2001-2003 period may never be matched again in our lifetime. That 2003 display wasn't even the only ultra-extreme event from that period... 11/6/01 matched or maybe defeated it, but I wasn't paying attention. My interest in the aurora began just shortly before that after the massive event on 10/21/01, so I had no idea what I was doing yet.
  5. Compared to the last cycle, it felt like this one never really peaked at all. I guess that was to be expected considering the last one basically would have yielded a carrington event or worse, had AR 486 fired off maybe 36 hours sooner.
  6. density: 12.9, good speed: 448, poor IMF: 16.9, moderate Bz: +12.2, dreadful Not seeing anything with those numbers. If the IMF stays above 15 and Bz goes back south, then maybe some glows and meh will be seen. Keep waiting for a well timed flare and CME... tracking these random spurts of solar wind is right up there with tracking alberta clippers.
  7. Bt has slowly creeped up to the bare minimum of around 15, so there will be glows. If the bz gets back to -10 there could be some better defined visible features.
  8. It's just too weak.... a Btotal of under 10 is borderline background noise. I'm sure MWN and 30 second exposures will find a glow to exaggerate, but this show is for central Canada.
  9. Yeah, a G3 with solar wind speeds below 400 seems like a stretch, but I guess we'll find out soon.
  10. lots of meh. bz and density are fine but the solar wind is too slow. there is/will continue be activity but it probably won't be worth standing in the freezing cold unless you're doing long exposure photos.
  11. Pretty meh looking CME. Not surprising given the poor positioning of the originating sunspot. G2 is a safe bet. Nobody should have expectations of seeing anything worth getting out of your chair for. This event is pretty much for cameras.
  12. This is the longest I've ever seen continuous pulsations. The greenish arc seems a little brighter now too.
  13. The ones that last just a few minutes... probably not. I see those spikes to 20.... they should be here shortly so we'll see.
  14. Man these pulsations are awesome and very high in the sky. Pretty bright activity too, don't even need to let your eyes adjust when walking outside. Definitely consistent with a local substorm outside the primary auroral belt.
  15. Solar wind speed is plenty high enough to inject energy into middle latitudes. Strongly negative Bz is cancelling out earths protective magnetic field Proton density is now so low that there is pretty much nothing to convert to photons, making everything else kinda irrelevant.
  16. There was a nice, perfect green arc stretching across the sky up to about 30 degrees, tall rays only lasted about 2 minutes. Just a faint glow more to the west now. Did anyone else catch that awesome meteor in the eastern sky? Big and bright orange, ultimately splitting into a couple pieces before fading out. The next arrival of good solar wind should kick the activity up again...the Bz has been holding even lower, but the density has dropped even further. Hard to get bright activity with a density of 2-3 protons.
  17. OK I'm seeing very visible tall rays about poking very high into the sky. Should last a little while longer and then stop. There is another Bz drop in progress which will arrive in exactly 32 minutes.
  18. lol... the sky is currently still brighter than any northern lights you are ever going to see. Have some patience and try again in about 25 minutes.
  19. The Bz was strongly negative for about 45 minutes but has flipped. The density has come down to 7'ish from over 40, and Btotal is half of what it was, so G4-G5 levels aren't going to happen. When you factor in the transit delay, that favorable period should be arriving in about 30 minutes and will last for about 45. It should be plenty sufficient for a burst to G3. But we'll be fighting lingering daylight.
  20. Already a total Bz reversal. Might flip back, might not.
  21. Sweet jesus, this is absolutely ideal and suitable for as much as G5 levels of storming. Too bad it doesn't get dark until 10pm... conditions usually don't stay quite this good for more than a few hours. Solar Wind: 700.2 Density: 26.3 Btotal: 38.2 nT Bz: 37 nT south
  22. Nice brief G2 geomagnetic storm earlier today (well, yesterday). Conditions aren't favorable now but I checked a few times anyways.
  23. Last night was a good example of what a G1 geomagnetic storm will look like on a moonless night in NNE. Faint, but visible if you're looking. They're never really reported or acknowledged because they're common, occurring on roughly 900 days each solar cycle. Last night was somewhat noteworthy for a G1 in that the activity was weirdly high in the sky, meaning it was closer than normal. Also, as you noted the pulsing effect is a bit unexpected at such low activity levels. When I saw it, a small patch of sky would gradually get brighter over about 15 seconds and then abruptly fade out over about 2 seconds.
  24. Was this with the D5000? I'm super jealous of how clean and crisp it is. Really makes my camera (Nikon 8700) look pretty sad.
  25. I saw the animation of the CME and wrote it off.... it didn't look too impressive... certainly didn't expect a G4 storm from it. Figured it would be a nice show for Alaska.
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