Jt17

Where are you? Didn't for NYC. Looks like NY is still well clear of a foot

Good I thought it looked weird. People say this and I never know what it means but could it be connective feedback? It looked like it phased and then all of a sudden it got torn apart

Literally nobody posted that. Somebody said it looked more amped and they probably meant at some random hour like 57 or 60

If did that at 6z but it eventually and slightly earlier seemed to favor the western low and that's when it came back and tucked a little around Long Island. If it's going to evolve with a double barrel low, that's what it's going to have to do for it to be awesome for us still.

Now would be a hilarious time for the Goofus to jump 200 miles west next run

Just eyeballing it - it's probably 50 miles east with the best snows. Not terrible. Not ideal, but threat is by no means dead for big snows for the sub-forum

Looks identical to last run. It just pulled it out at the last minute last run and took a nap south of LI dumping snow on us. But we'll see. Could end up worse of course

24-36" for me - just looking for a nice winter look, nothing crazy.

He's not right, as depicted this is a very cold storm - you're going to have some ratio snows

Its markedly better and it's still snowing hard with hours to go at hour 90.

06z GFS isn't really too far off from this. It's definitely west of last night and similarly powerful, it just needs a little bit and it starts to back up the euro.

6z euro at 90 (still snowing):

whew.

Even more likely N&W further from the high winds and cold AF, ya?

For sure there could be some sharp cutoffs so a 10-20 mile east shift in the axis of heavy snows (like on this run compared to last) could be frustrating.

lol yea sure looks like it caved to the GFS

The main difference wasn't track like people are saying here, it was a little less robust of a system and it moved a little quicker.

00z: 18z:

No, compared to the end of the last op run it's actually ever so slightly west. The low is slightly weaker and the precip field is a little smaller though so I imagine the output will be a bit less, but it was still a good hit. Just noise at this point.

worked last night, keep up the good work!

Lol so many dumb comments. Today Canadian trended slightly back West, Euro trended slightly west with a bomb solution supported by a very confident ensemble and the NAM, GFS slightly trended WEST a bit today from where it was last night (though people can't remember 1 run to the next so they think it didn't) and the UKIE has been OTS nearly every run. That's where we're at you weirdos. Nothing really happened except we've gotten more evidence that a powerful storm with serious potential for our area is developing.

I know everybody's hopes were up for the GFS to tick west, so when it didn't it was disappointing. That being said, it was really just a minor wobble east. If it jumped significantly east, that would be cause for alarm, but for now I would treat it as a nothingburger.

That's a sound strategy 5 days and more, but I think starting now it's pretty fun to follow along intently. Although, if you care about your loved ones it's probably not the healthiest way to go about it.

Ah feels like the old days in here. Joy, disappointment, anxiety. Hanging on to every model run. Love it.

0z: 18z: forget the precip field depiction for now - the new run is 2 mb deeper and a very small amount east, it's pretty negligible changes which is normal 3.5-4 days out from a storm.