WinterWxLuvr

Devastated. Had already started planning on starting the thread.

Thing is though that it can’t snow usually in a Nov Dec torch, but you can get lucky during a mild Jan Feb and even March. So if this is the only option we have it’s the best option to have.

That early season snow looks really good on the gfs. Getting excited

Lows in eastern Ohio are our bread and butter. They work great in January, why not October as well?

Yeah but what I was saying is that that map shows extreme high heights in the pacific but the height lines don’t really show a pronounced ridge. So what I’m asking is would “normal” heights produce a trough there? Not really commenting on whether what it shows is good or bad. It’s pretty clear it’s bad. I’m just confused why mega high heights (relative time normal) don’t produce a pronounced ridge.

LOL your data was sea ice. Like everyone doesn’t already know that. I have no idea if you’re wrong. That’s my whole point. You can’t look at the past 5 years of winter and draw a conclusion that we’ve entered into a new era of winter weather. If you want to say we’ve entered into a new era with arctic sea ice then I’d say your data supports that. See ya, bud.

I do have a serious question. Or two. That look is almost zonal but in the pacific it shows that same zonal flow as being much above normal. Is “normal” a trough there. I mean if you lower heights in a zonal flow wouldn’t that result in a trough? Also, aren’t those heights in the arctic centered in such a way that it’s “leaning” toward eastern North America? Couldn’t that produce bouts of cold in the east from time to time with just a bit of transient ridging along the west coast?

Two weeks until it looks different? Over/under?

You said since 2006. I said half of those winters have been good. I guess we can revisit this conversation in 14 years.

Ok but we aren’t talking about sea ice. If this new regime is to be applied to winter outcomes then we basically can say that roughly half of the winters in this 14 or so year long new era have been decent to good to great. I’d be willing to wager that if you take the preceding 14 or so year period you’d probably find about half of those winters to be decent to good to great. In other words, I don’t think there’s data that links the warming to the winter outcomes. If there is I haven’t seen it. And I certainly don’t think you can link arctic sea ice to the outcome of winter. If that’s the case then explain the years 2012-2013 through 2014-2015. Not seeing this new winter area, especially after just a handful of less than stellar winters.

But isn’t there some evidence out there that the NAO and perhaps the AO operate on decadal cycles? CAPE and PSU would know this. If so what’s happening could just be part of that. IMO, 18-19 was a decent winter, at least here. The other 4 were bad, with last year being a lol joke. But before that 09-10, 10-11, 12-13, 13-14, 14-15 were decent to extremely good winters. Again speaking for mby. So if I get on average 6 of 11 winters that are good, I’m gonna be ok with that.

That’s a 4 year data set. Not sure I’d draw too many conclusions from that. But hey I’m just posting thoughts not trying to challenge your ideas. You are a valuable contributor here.

I think it’s a little early for the new era. When would you say this new era began? And even if the global climate is different, have we already nailed down the local climate impacts? How big is the data set? I’m old enough to remember some crap winters in the early 70’s, late 80’s, early 90’s and late 90’s. I remember being a kid riding a new bike in 70 degree temps in Christmas Day somewhere around 1970. Winter can go on runs of terrible. This isn’t the first time it’s ever happened.

I’ll wager, literally, with anyone that we average colder than last year with more snow. That’s a very safe bet because that bar is very low.

I see clippers and gradient setups in our future. And my favorite, cutters into CAD

No

I have always felt the Pacific is the dominant player because we are downstream of it. We may need blocking to get big snows but with a +PNA at least we are usually cold with at worst chances for small events and less likely to have a complete crap bucket of a winter like last year.

Heck no. Let’s have a meltdown now. Get this off to a good start.

It was oh so close to being a really good winter though

I don’t disagree but when you’re looking at 100 year trends you also have to take into consideration the differences in urban areas along that 100 year journey. Lot more concrete and asphalt now vs then. The March 2013 storm is a great example. Just a few miles outside of that heat island was heavy snow. A degree or two made all the difference. I think to draw conclusions on the 100 year trend with snowfall you’d have to get away from urban locations and look at a small regional collection of data. I know that I’ve looked at the data for Winchester and the thing that stands out the most is the randomness of the high and low snowfall totals. I definitely think the climate will be a factor, just not sure that’s necessarily gonna show up in snow totals, or what that factor will be. Now if we get 10 of the next 15 winters as warm as last year, I might be singing a different tune.

I agree with this on temps. I still think that with warmer global temps you’re gonna see small scale climate features that may be colder than the old regime during winter. We just don’t know where those are gonna set up. We probably can surmise that it won’t be us though, lol. But it’s gonna take a while before we can draw conclusions. A 3-5 year lean stretch is t enough to draw conclusions imo.

This is good. People forget that we had a pretty bad run from the late 80’s into the early 90’s as well. I’m also old enough to remember some clunkers in the early 70’s. Climate is longer than a few years, even longer than 30 if you want to be honest about it.

Does anyone here actually remember last winter? There’s no way it will be worse than that. @WxWatcher007 will be giving huge discounts on suites by the time Feb rolls around because nobody will be booking rooms with him.

I’ll guarantee we have a better winter than last year. Mark it down.

But it was awe inspiring for some. Truly a storm of the century, maybe many centuries.