Great post. Knoxville has more snow than NOVA. Can’t blame it all on an airmass.
Look at it this way. Why didn’t it snow on Christmas Eve/Day? Today? Gotta at least have a precip event. If we’d had precip today it was cold enough that we would have seen snow.
This is right about the time when the euro will spit out a big event around day 7-9 that none of the other models have, keep it a couple of runs, then it drop it like a hot potato
As much or more than I do LOL. But to me both models look like they would sheer and shoot straight east just like today. Gfs is LOL with its run to run changes at h5.
I 100% agree that the Pacific is the driver. Thinking it isn’t is like thinking Lake Ontario has an more of an effect on the Niagara River than does Niagara Falls.
Mention was made of slow NH snow cover as being a reason for no cold. Don’t think that would hold up because if memory serves haven’t we had some rapid and record fall snow cover advances in the past 5 years?
I’m not seeing much of a SER in that run. For me the pattern looks a little better moving forward. We aren’t going to get a storm with that zipper off the east coast right at our latitude