UnionCountyNCWX

I've officially kicked the can. On to the next one.(year)

"Plenty of artic air in Canada" is a BIG reach, most of the cold during that time frame shifts over towards Asia, there is some cold, but really not all that much, especially what we need for the pattern to really be effective imo.

It ain't gonna happen, but that's about as perfect placement as you can get for snow for the LP/HP. It's only hour 384 on the GFS, what could go wrong.

I like how the 0z GFS gave us just enough hope to once again get pissed off at winter.

Imma somehow blame covid for this too.

Interesting indeed. (Man, we suck.)

Yea at this point, I'd rather have fantasy storms that didn't come to fruition vs no fantasy storms and still be disappointed lol.

Brad P when someone says how exciting the upcoming pattern looks on his FB page - "Not really."

If it isn't gonna snow, i'm all for more days like today. 3 rounds of disc golf in, and managed to almost get a little sun on my face for the first time in what feels like months lol. However, i'm still game for snowmagedon if it happens.

I'll take it, thank you.

For your area, sure.

I was in the direct path of the tornado warned cell as it came through Matthews, NC. No issues here, no funnel spotted (would be hard to see anyway)

First reported tornado near Claremount. As reported on Brad P's live.

First rumbles of thunder, gusts getting into the 35mph range in Matthews, NC as of 1227pm.

I honestly don't believe it's possible this year. I was all in on this past weekends storm, as it was the only time all the players were on the table at roughly the right positions, but of course nothing went right and we heated for some nice cold rain. There's nothing about this pattern coming up that right now says we should be excited minus maybe getting few days below normal temps.. And by the time we get the "relaxation" for something that lasted a couple of days, we're gonna be in mid February. It is nice to see the rain though, we all needed it. But tomorrows storm is probably gonna be the most "exciting" thing this winter.

Essentially cold chasing moisture for the 16th is what I'm seeing model wise once the system gets cranking. "That ain't gonna work Jim" ***Actually it's cold not even chasing anymore. More like the cold decided to take a breather along the mountains and watch the light showers move out. My one shot of hopefulness came with the storm this past weekend which didn't materialize outside of the mountains and foothills ice wise. I really don't see anything worth getting excited over for the next few weeks at all minus some below temps.

I think that if Carolina can beat Tampa Bay tomorrow, we go ahead and start the storm thread.

12z ICON no good for the 7th outside of the mountains. Big difference between 0z is no sign of the 1030 HP up north.

12/7 thought this morning. (I'm hoping a fantasy smowmagadeon shows up on one model run so I can renew my wxbell subscription lol) Wishcasting at it's best, but you put a 1030-1035mb HP that's showing up on the Icon/GFS and put it on the CMC and you've got a big storm. GFS/ Euro being somewhat consistent with it's output is very concerning, however there hasn't been much support on other guidance with that particular output. (And the Euro has been wishy washy with the LP track as well) Snowdawg mentioned most of what needs to happen yesterday, but i would also like to see some tracks of the LP digging even more and tracking slightly off the coast again as opposed to inland, with a solution of a more robust HP. As many have said, the cold is looking marginal AT BEST, but it can still line up. As of this post it's essentially the UKM/Icon/CMC vs GFS/Euro in terms of overall storm progression (with some runs of the Euro on the other side in terms of track, not temps). As Han Solo infamously said, "Never tell me the odds." I'm pulling for this storm until I can't no more.

Midday trends are exactly what you don't want to see. The GFS being an outlier with a super amped storm compared to other modeling( and it's own modeling). CMC doesn't show the southern kick at all, and Euro looked like an apps runner instead of the LP being close to the coast. That was rough.

I'm still sticking with my guns on the 7th storm. Climo wins 95% of the time, but this is still the closest look I've seen in a while. As long as models show a storm in the SE that's not an apps runner, and HP to the north, I'll take those chances. Need help, but it's possible. I'd rather be overly optimistic about this one chance than nothing at all, because who knows when there's gonna be another one looking long range.

18Z GFS coming in 4-5 degrees colder during the 7th storm. upper 30's and rain for most of the board, with snow confined to basically I40 North. Overall better than the 12Z run, and VERY close to showing something more exciting.

January 7th-10th is the timeline we all need to be looking at. Right now, this solution is an outlier. But guidance has strong support of a storm in this timeframe. Some have all the players we need, some don't. But this timeframe overall shows the strongest support of a potential storm that can make the (almost) entire forum happy that I've seen in a couple of years that doesn't seem like a fantasy. (IMO, the storm around the 4th is just a bonus if something pans out, but it's not what I think is the best opportunity)

Happy hour time (maybe?) at 120 on the GFS, cold press is slightly further south compared to 12z. EH, at 132, temps are 2-3 degrees cooler accross the board. but 45 and rain , and 48 and rain are still just rain. 138 - temps 5-10 degrees cooler accross the board compared to 12z. Still relatively close for some magic.

Timetables are different by about 36-48 hours, but the CMC also showing the system, but even closer to what we want to see. Though it has the system coming around the 3rd into the 4th. for the sake of not having the feed being forever to scroll down, i won't post the shot from TT, but it's close to a good scenario.