UnionCountyNCWX

To be fair, outside of severe weather / tropical stuff, this particular thread is somewhat dead when it's not winter lol.

At this point I'm rooting for the solutions that are showing a dry(drier) weekend as opposed to the cold and wet ones. I'm over it.

Maybe that's the key though, to be looking for unicorns. Every time there's talk over the past couple of years (may go back further but I've noticed this since I've moved from Boone to Monroe) about a true "pattern change" in the winter it NEVER happens. At the MOST, we've had a couple days where it is cooler, or even maybe a couple of days of cold, but a true pattern change has not happened, as much as it's advertised. Unless a true Nino happens that actually acts like one, I don't think we can actually score anymore in a "good" setup, we HAVE to count on luck.

I was supposed to be at Beech the weekend of the 16 incher, but called into work 48 hours before i was supposed to leave. It stings now more than ever that I missed that.

Although (as mentioned already) he leans toward the pessimistic side of things, he called it out almost a couple of weeks ago already, so as pessimistic as he may be, he was confident in this not working well before crunch time, so props for that.

9'er gang, let's go!!!!!!

Monthlies already showing an unfavorable pacific but there may be an opportunity for 36 hours of a split flow pattern... (JK)looks like we're running a la nina into the summer, so wouldn't be surprised if we have another warm/dry start to next winter.

Is there a verification score for things such as ensembles and weeklies like the OP model runs have? Obviously there would have to be margin of error factored in considering the timeframe from hour 0, but I think it's been (3?) times this winter everyone was talking about the weeklies constantly getting colder three weeks out just for it to disappear right when op runs were starting to get within that timeframe (I've spent less time on ensembles this winter compared to normal, so not really sure how they've overall panned out)

Ready for that one person to say they'll take the Euro over all other guidance.

Pacific sucks and is getting worse, and the Atlantic was never good but it's heading into suckage as well, time for a hot and dry summer, think you can count on that.

At least the sun angle can help dry out the golf courses faster.

NGL, I am actually interested in finding out how many El Nino's in history compare to how bad this one has been overall lol.

I do not care how many degrees you may have or how long you have studied the weather. If the Pacific doesn't agree, I'm not buying into it ever again lol. (shoutout to Brad P for being right lol)

Normally it's I40, so this is a step better than compared to the past few years lol

Actually that goes right along with what I said earlier, as TT won't show the 21z frame and looked slight warmer before/after this frame, so that does help a lot for sure, thanks for posting that frame!

Honestly, the only thing we really needed to score BIG on the 18Z is a HP a couple of ticks stronger, and either anchored in place longer, or evolve a little more NE instead of shooting E out to the Atlantic.

Maybe it's progged differently between the run hours, but that snow outside of the mountains/foothills is falling into 35-38 degree weather if not really close to 40. with 60's the day before. Taken verbatim with the modeling, I honestly don't really buy it showing those high of totals of snow falling outside the mountains based on the surface maps. But it is something to keep an eye on. (looking at TT for maps)

Done went ahead and jinxed the whole run lol. (may bite my words after 204, but ain't looking good until that point) 216 heavy snow in the NC northern mountains, maybe some foothills. I40 North/west of Greensboro essentially.

Someone needs to get a railing installed on the cliff if the 18z GFS doesn't depict what the 12z did lol. Let's see what happens I guess.

I like how the main thread is very soon about to be saying the pattern in march is gonna be what was supposed to happen in 9-10 days...then push back to April...then May

I've officially kicked the can. On to the next one.(year)

"Plenty of artic air in Canada" is a BIG reach, most of the cold during that time frame shifts over towards Asia, there is some cold, but really not all that much, especially what we need for the pattern to really be effective imo.

It ain't gonna happen, but that's about as perfect placement as you can get for snow for the LP/HP. It's only hour 384 on the GFS, what could go wrong.

I like how the 0z GFS gave us just enough hope to once again get pissed off at winter.

Imma somehow blame covid for this too.