Ed, snow and hurricane fan

LILCO had power back in 2 days after Belle.

14 years in Massapequa, the rest of my life in Texas, a week plus no power each hurricane, rolling blackouts for a once every 30 year cold spell (it is rare, but people know we'll have those cold spells), Long Island is not as third world as we are. Wind farms in Iowa work in Winter, and as gas turbines make most of the electricity, and most Texans in cold weather use natural gas heat, creating shortages, well, 3 days below freezing and half of those 3 days w/o power, we're behind. Texas Ed M.

Weird quadrant for the strongest winds. Plane has not changed altitude per TT

I got a day off for Hurricane Laura last year, and we had only breezy showers. The day off after Beta for flooding, that was real. I teach Algebra II...

Grew up in Massapequa NY, was there for Hurricane Belle, spent some Summers in North Quincy with my Grandma, $5 bleachers for the Red Sox (switch to Kenmore Square train at Park Street), NY forum doesn't like slight shift East w/ 18Z models, well, oh, 2 different 2 week vacations in Harwichport. Or, unless completely OTS, I can't lose. In Texas, the ridge driving Grace into Mexico, today was first day w/ no sea breeze storms, barely any flat cumulus. I'm not as fond of no electricity for 5 or 10 days as I was as a kid.

I was in the Navy and didn't even know Gloria happened until later, but I was in Nassau Shores, Massapequa for 1976 75 mph Hurricane Belle, and that killed electricity for 2 days and ruined the food in the fridge, and uprooted trees. Weeping willows especially. If not cut up, they lived on their sides. We evacuated to North Massapequa, friends from my Dad's job, the Harkins. They had cable, was about to see an R rated movie on HBO when the power went out. First time I'd ever seen cable.

Sounds like last 4 days of the sea breeze (and outflow boundaries from SB storms colliding) have triggered more active weather in SETX than Fred did on the Florida peninsula.

HWRF has seemed to have a high bias. GFS shear at this point is under 4 m/s, about 10 mph. I think it is possible.

NVM. Those are 08D/Henri per 12Z GEFS. Per Twitter, COVID will not stop iCyclone chasing in Mexico.

Looking at 1004 mb low on govt. GEFS site, a lot of clustering for 5 days away. All the models seem locked in on Mexico now. OT- at 5 days, random lows start appearing off the SE USA. Could be 08L, but nothing on 6Z GEFS from TT shows any members getting that far SW. Maybe someone was right, and the Northern piece of what was 95L tries to develop.

We've been to the same Dead show? The odds in a country of 300 million people... OT- HWRF has a lot of company on the forecast track somewhere from the Rio Grande down to Veracruz, but the intensity is a lot higher than any model except NNIC, which is a consensus model, and HWRF is one of the inputs. The inputs to NNIC include intensity forecasts from 4 deterministic intensity models (HWFI, AVNI, DSHP, LGEM) and 4 other predictors.The model input includes 5 predictors as follows:(1) the mean intensity from the 4 models,(2)-(5) The deviation of each model from the mean.The four other inputs include the following:(6) The previous 12 hr intensity change (t=0 minus t=-12h max wind)(7) The latitude along the OFCI track(8) The SST along the OFCI track,(9) The 850-200 hPa shear along the OFCI track

More unsupported fun and frolics from the HWRF...

Jammed the Beatle's 'Hey Jude', and every drum was miked to a different speaker, the drums circled the auditorium. Opened with 'Hell in a Bucket', that was, I think, the latest album.

Looking at Tropical Tidbits recon vs satellite loop, they have not sampled the highest winds yet. I think this could make a run at minimal Cat 1 before landfall.

St. Patrick's Day, 1988, the Dead at the Kaiser in Oakland. I can neither confirm nor deny mind altering substances ingested. Not much more than a year later, the 880 freeway, how we got from Alameda to Berkeley, collapsed in an earthquake.

17N, 68W, there is a very weak closed low, 1011 mb. Strongest winds (near TS at flight level) well removed Northeast in the convection.

Fracking and salt water disposal can cause small earthquakes, generally 10,000 to 100,000 times weaker than the Haiti earthquake. (Log scale). I think Haiti was about 12 km below the surface, far deeper than the phreatic water zone. Changes in tides or sea level pressure, who knows if that might move them a few days earlier, but the Caribbean plate is volcanically active in the Lesser Antilles, and seismically active in the Greater Antilles.

If one just looks as Euro ensemble tracks, it looks scary Mexico to Louisiana, but only about 10 perturbations are below 1000 mb, or ensembles support the op.

I'm missing context. Are some people giving a bit of attitude to a red tagger? (I was around 10 years ago when someone from Brooklyn was considered over-enthusiastic about Winter storms. I had a 5 year zero post limit, but now I am back strictly for the weather.)

No support for the HWRF, but fun to look at.

Does a mess now keep it South of the highest peaks of Hispaniola? Cuba has mountains as well, but most systems survive Cuba. Fred didn't, but it was already almost dead from Hispaniola. And Fred did rise from the dead. Intensity depends on track, and track on intensity. 12Z GFS weak system reorganizing near the Yucatan and hitting Mexico as probably a TS seems as likely as anything else.

That is some Easterly shear over Grace.

Those islands seem small, but Dorian, they destroyed the LLC which was SW of the MLC. On its own, might have taken days for them to align. Those islands helped Dorian organize by destroying the LLC so a new one could form. Not saying Cat 5 in the Bahamas. But the volcanoes on islands like Guadeloupe are big enough to disrupt weak surface circulations.

One monster Florida Panhandle GEFS member but I don't have software. A week from Saturday.

Question about modeling something East of the Lesser Antilles and West of the Cape Verdes. I assume flights from L. Antilles to Europe head NE, from watching a documentary about Air France crash (involved pitot icing in an ITCZ thunderstorm) by the time those flights get North of the Equator they are far closer to Africa than the Caribbean. Or I assume almost all initialization data is remote satellite sensing. Winter storm AFDs, often mentioned potential systems aren't in North American ballon sonde network, clear implication more confidence when models ingest surface obs and balloon soundings. And I assume more ACCARS from Trans-Pacific flights. Or how well can we really expect models to handle something in the MDR between the Lesser Antilles and Cabo Verde?