Ed, snow and hurricane fan

3 inch hail in PDS Severe Thunderstorm Warning just N/NW of Austin. Just heard it on Ryan Hall. Not on NWS yes. 3 inch hail. Edit- I feel cheated, the words 'particularly dangerous' nor the letters PDS are part of the text.

Looks even better in a loop, but I don't have the attachment size left.

>80 dBZ with warned hailer E-ern Dallas County.

I haven't compared as you have, but Dr. Klotzbach mentioned in his 2024 prediction recent April forecasts have improved. Hadley Cell talk makes me wonder, they don't (usually) have time to become extreme, but pieces of mid-level disturbances that break off and come back W as inverted troughs sometimes spin up. Locally (NW Gulf), Edouard and Humberto come to mine, Lee was badly sheared, making landfall in Louisiana with no rain of the W side in 2011, but it blew down the powerlines that started the Bastrop fire E of Austin. Rural country, but 1700 structures destroyed in 7 weeks, two dead. Even if the MDR is a bit suppressed, US threat is not zero. Alicia, last major to landfall inside NWS HGX CWA over 40 years ago, was of non-tropical origin. First day of fire, I didn't think trees that green would burn. But rainless tropical storm and no rain all summer. Below video from day fire started, between Bastrop and La Grange.

DFW to SPS in an Enhanced for tomorrow, 30% hail and hatched. Late ahead of storms in the 287 area between the two cities, lapse rates in the hail layer between near 7 to near 8C/km, near 60 knot 0-6km shear per 12Z hi-res NAM. CINH is increasing, but enough 1 km helicity for a possible tornado.

94% totality down here. Can't wait for my mid day clouds become like 5 am clouds, before going back to early afternoon overcast.

2 inch PW is more common in August. Severe signal is muted Monday in East Texas on NAM, long skinny CAPE from a near saturated sounding although impressive hodo, closer to I-35, nice EML and better CAPE, but hodos not good. 6Z Euro has widespread 4 inch 48 hour rainfall with near 7 inch bullseyes in Piney Woods. GFS not as dramatic and a smidge N, but a signal for excessive rainfall in N and E Texas. WPC has N and E Texas in a SLIGHT RISK area Monday and Tuesday for excessive rain. WPC 5 day QPF over 5 inches extreme E Texas to the ArkLaMiss.

Consistent signal (0Z, 6Z) NAM for an MCS to form over Central Texas and move E. NAM and GFS don't support, Canadian does.

At least San Antonio and Austin are in a Day 3 hatched sig-severe, language suggests for large to very large hail.

The same thing that made for a boring cold season might make this the year a major hurricane makes it to New England. The 26C isotherm in September usually gets as far N as the latitude of Delaware, it still won't reach the coast, but it'll be closer and the waters S of Long Island/SNE won't be so cold a storm falls apart quickly. OK, those of you on the coast might prefer snow to having a North Carolina-esque hurricane season (and mid-Atlantic type snowfall), but the trend in ocean temps doesn't seem in your favor. The AMO threw a head fake it might be headed back neutral about 2019/2020, but The two summers we rented a house in Harwichport, I was so early teen nerd excited about hurricanes. I was just born 50 years too soon. I remember an April snowstorm on Long Island 1980 or so, when BOS was rain. @MJO812might know what year that was. But April snow is special.

I was never in a risk area, down in HOU we never get storms from a positive tilted trough except sometimes a 'squeegie line' (as the HGX mets call thin lines of showers or storms right on the front). But even yesterday, when DFW was Slight and OKC Enhanced, I did not see the low level response, and thus week low level winds, that would have done that much with the fairly 'meh' instability. I still think there might be a supercell or two with big hail and a non-zero tornado risk in N. Central Texas and Oklahoma. Could have been a big event with Anything after dark that forms ahead of the squall line or in an embedded bow in E. Oklahoma might have a chance to go tornadic although CINH may be an issue. LLJ also picking up after dark, reaching 50 knots which could mix down

Rich Corinthian leather. Sold it in 1985 when assigned to my ship, I paid too much for the POS and I felt guilty, the guy I sold it to paid my asking price. Burned oil like a mofo.

If I had money to travel, I'd lean Lake Erie-ish. Far too early, of course. PW may not say much about high clouds, but the best thing I can think of for now. North Texas might have morning low clouds which usually burns off by 18Z.

Been right at 40 years, the last time I drove to BOS. They write tickets now, but I brought about 4 inches of snow from Saratoga Springs to Boston in 1984 on my 1976 Chrysler Cordoba. I don't see that many metro Boston posters, perhaps because it has been seasons of consecutive disappointment. The NNE posters remind me of something I heard when I lived in the NYC area, snow in the Big Cities was good for ski country, it got some people thinking about skiing. It'll be almost another hour before 2m temps from Euro are available on the free sites. I myself am very curious about surface temps inside Route 128 and down to Marshfield.

SPC is Enhanced for Day 3 with a hatched SigSevere for the I-35 corridor in Oklahoma and a small part of SE Kansas and SW Missouri. Parsing the language, hail seems to be the biggest concern in Oklahoma but all hazards are possible. GFS doesn't look that exciting to me, nor the NAMs near the end of their range, but I'm assuming the SPC people know what they are talking about. Speed shear (and a lot of it, 70-80 knots, possibly why language about hail), but little change in wind direction surface to 500 mb. If models are right, I'd think any tornado threat would be tied to low level boundaries. The only one obvious at this time is the cold front/dry line, and surface/850 mb winds aren't that impressive. Not seeing the MCS SPC thinks will develop late afternoon and evening, but again, at the farther edges of meso model range.

Rates so high time of day/sun angle doesn't matter?

My new favorite You Tube and Twitter follow... No video yet, but one is surely coming.

https://www.youtube.com/c/convectivechronicles You Tube link above.

I'm guessing I'm not the first person on the board who started watching the videos, but YouTube somehow knew to suggest Convective Chronicles. Tropical Tidbit style discussions of ongoing events, and 45 minute post-mortems of significant tornado events of the last 30 years. On Twitter/X and YouTube.

Not hatched for large hail, but enhanced risk for hail probs >30% w/i 25 miles for a small part of N Central Oklahoma and S central Kansas on updated SWODY1

Sunday looks more like a day for chasing hail and structures. Surface based CAPE is fairly low, surface CINH is fairly high. Maybe W. Oklahoma might see a tornado or two, if I had to guess.. Impressive ML lapse rates though, and there is enough plenty of shear. Looking at Day 2 area HRRR and 3 and 12 km NAM, a squall line with gusty winds seems more likely judging my simulated radar, although there is some surface based instability and a lot of low level shear. Maybe embedded in a line, or a cell ahead of the main line.

In a severe warning at 6:30, fair amount of lightning but no hail or strong winds. No warnings but impressive line segment NW of San Antonio currently.

I was staying about 10 miles S of the supercell Thursday. I watched it developing when I was doing the tourist FTW Stockyards, and their cattle drive of 10 or 12 longhorns who were clearly sedated.

I haven't seen VIL used as a large hail proxy in a while, but latest HRRR would seem to be dropping big hail with a deviant right turner towards Kingsville, where I have partied with college students from the local branch of the ag college. 3 km NAM in general agreement of generally calm until what I assume is a shortwave crossed the Rio Grande into South Texas around midnight. It might have been the Texas thread, but I commented to @Stx_Thunder that while Deep South Texas doesn't have the North Texas/Big Country/Panhandle reputation, it can have the occasional 'gorilla hail', that would get more attention if the population density away from the border towns was higher. Tonight might be one of those events.

Billboards on I-45 in Corsicana, a third of the way before DFW and Houston advertising the eclipse. Not sure that would be a destination. San Antonio and Austin probably have the most other tourist-y things to do in full eclipse areas of Texas. I'll be working and will not be allowed to go outside, except maybe for a three minute break.