Ed, snow and hurricane fan

The dry front produced only very isolated storms over the weekend, and the official Houston high temp was 100*F.  TV forecasters had been excited all week about the weekend's rain chances and cooler weather.

This may or may not be the page people are using, but I can't get the images with analog years and the such I see people post in threads.

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis.html

27 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

GFS and Euro show  nothing  now as we  head  into August. Season needs to start really  soon for  10/5 or  9/4 to verify.

You haven't seen the GFS and Euro ensembles, or the op Euro.  I agree 10 hurricanes seems high to me, Euro weeklies don't look very active into early September (although the ACE product is normal to somewhat above normal) but it isn't dead heading into August.  Not a slam dunk, only a few GFS ensemble members see it but the Euro system is a big deal if it is just N of the Greater Antilles instead of through it.  That system, if it forms, probably fishes, but ten days out, who knows?

I think it is the wave just past 0 degrees the models like a lot more than 95L.

I saw something above about how strong Nino forcing would be for winter, and it does look like it peaks before Thanksgiving (1.761 is the highest 3 month dynamic mean off IRI, in SON).  Is it me, or is this Nino rather abrupt in its rise and fall?

Edit to add- I just noticed 95L.  Its the MDR lemon.  FWIW, SHIPS brings it to a 101 knot Cat 3 in a week.  I doubt that.  Original post below, Euro weeklies suggesting TWC 20 storms isn't likely.

The Euro weeklies don't seem to support The Weather Channels 20 named storms, at least not into early September.  They also seem to suggest the next two weeks will actually be the best chance of much.  They are picking up on the lemon that Euro ensembles are showing, and maybe something behind it, and then I don't see anything suggesting TC activity after.  The Caribbean looks dead, I assume a product of a trough near the East Coast and El Nino shear.

12 minutes ago, GaWx said:

1. The 12Z GEFS is by a good margin the most active GEFS with this in the last two days of runs with ~3 H.

2. ASCAT/visible imagery suggests a LLC near 11N, 39W, but the NHC is focusing on an area near 11N, 30W:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7

 

The ensembles at hour zero seems to show the multiple disturbances. CIMSS TPW looks a bit better for the 39W wave than the NHC wave.

It was 100°F at Bush/IAH, but dewpoints mixed down to 71°F, it could have been worse.  2°F short of the 1980 record.  I don't think Houston has broken a daily record yet.  98°F at 4pm.  Nothing astounding, but GFS and Euro ensembles show some rain next weekend.

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Was their a volcanic eruption in the early 70s?

OT on that, but JB thinks undersea eruptions are the main factor in the abnormally warm SSTs in the Atlantic and Pacific.  Albedo is very low at high sun angle, and the oceans are huge, I'm not smart enough to do the math, but that would require a boatload of undersea volcanoes and vents.

3 hours ago, Windspeed said:

Got a lemon. The disturbance isn't expected to develop until within the central MDR or on approach to the islands if it can hold together.

About 15 of the 0Z Euro ensemble members showed a TC in/near the Caribbean in a week, but only 1 below 1000 mb.

2 hours ago, ldub23 said:

The season needs to get started real soon because peak season is  going to be rocked with very  unfavorable  conditions. CSU says  9/4 and right  now we are  0/0. One  year we will have high pressure  locked  over the NW ATL and there wont  be an east  coast  mega trof.

The negativity about every season (from the point of view of someone wanting hurricanes and US impacts) you display is a defensive mechanism.  The sense I get.  You can't be disappointed if you always expect 'the worst' and you hope you can somehow nudge the weather gods into a major Mid Atlantic landfall by constantly saying it won't happen.

Waiting to see whether the on again/off again MDR near 60°W system on the GFS is on again or off again, but the long range OLR map linked, MDR gets hostile end of August but maybe the Caribbean (and thus the Eastern part of the Gulf/Florida might see something in Ocrtober.

I posted about ensembles and operationials seeing a storm above, but it has been on again/off again/on again and  I'm not doing a play by play 2 or 4 times a day models are supportive of a storm following/models not enthusiastic.  I'll do a play by play, maybe, inside 5 days.

https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/analogs/analogslp.html

3 hours ago, Powerball said:

 

The CAMs get tantalizingly close to Houston with that complex.  Probably a futile hope, but a month ago, on a day near 100 in Houston, storms forecast to arrive after midnight in the afternoon arrived just after Sundown.  97 mph wind gust at IAH is an all time record.  NWS has 10% probs, which is probably about right.  I'm going to water after mowing.  That has a decent track record of making it rain.

The GFS mid-level moisture fields are arguing against the GFS' solution, a hurricane moving through the Florida Straits, with a small bubble of high RH with the storm and a desert on all sides,.  It does relax the shear briefly, and I read Derek Ortt's Master's thesis, dry air has limited effect on established TCs if shear is low.  The GFS storm also tracks close to the Greater Antilles, so I'm more about the possibility as shown on Euro ensembles and GFS of a storm near Florida 12 or 13 days out.  Not worth hyping about, but if El Nino does what I think will do, Nino shear will be building during the approach to the climatalogical peak so much of the season will probably happen in July to mid August.

I suppose moving over abnormally warm waters might be how the GFS makes a hurricane in the desert.  Not sure if that is valid.  And it is more than 10 days out.

11

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

 There's some increased noise on the 0Z GEFS/EPS vs earlier runs regarding an AEW/vorticity coming off Africa ~Tue 7/18. Just something to watch. IF it were to develop, the runs suggest it would probably go pretty far west.

I don't know if this is mildly weenie, but 11 days out Euro ensembles have a few members near Florida and the Bahamas, and with a window of lower (not low, just lower) shear.

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I’m not hot at all. Every night has been fine with the fans…low 70s at the worst. That bedroom temp is a little inflated in the afternoon because it’s on the west side.  But I tolerate the warmth and dews just fine. Trust me it’ll go in when we feel like we need it.

Back when I was a young'un living in Long Island, our house had one window unit in the master bedroom.  I lot of nights sleeping in my underpants with an open window and a box fan.

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

JB says  it!

 

 

I'm no expert, but going just by chi, the JMA would imply an Atlantic season that doesn't look that unfavorable for a strong El Nino.  Since I've returned to the forum (and I remember somebody that seemed a lot like you before), every season is either dead or all the storms recurve.  This doesn't fit the narrative.  This smells like JB big hurricane season weenie bait. Phase 8 isn't great, but 8  moving into 1, and 1 are generally favorable.  You should be against this on principal.

Did you under a different name back around 2010 and 2011 frequently post FSU GFS surface pressure maps at two weeks to imply the tropics were dead.

EDIT TO ADD: About 40% of Euro ensembles near or in the E. Caribbean at day 10.  The Tropical Tidbits Euro ensembles have TCs, some strong, near Florida.  If you'll recall, I'm leaning slow season Western Atlantic, but I think I said if anyplace in the US does get hit, it would probably be Florida.

College Station and Huntsville were already AOA 100°, but thanks to cooling Gulf breezes, Houston is only 95° as of 3 pm.  Galveston is only 91°, but a dewpoint of 81° is pretty gnarly.

45 minutes ago, Quixotic1 said:

This is nowhere near 1980 and 2011.  

I didn't say just like 1980.  It 1980-ish.

Dallas

7/15 1978 110°

7/16 1980 108°

7/17  1954 109°

7/18 2022 108°

Only one of the days mentioned next week even set the record in 1980.  

I do, obviously, follow Houston a bit more closely, yesterday's record of 103° was from last year.  I don't know why I remember just 2011 and 1980, last summer was pretty darn hot.  It might be the accompanying drought I remember.  Couple of weeks ago Houston was near/at 100°, but we were close enough to the edge of the ridge we caught storms coming down 45 from Dallas.  June 21 one of those round of storms, poorly modeled by the CAMs, brought an all time record 97 mph gust.  Broke the record from September 2008.

The good news, the GFS has been about 5° too warm today around Dallas and Houston.  The bad news, next week is 109 or 110°F each evening at 7pm.  Ballpark 5° correction- 105° for a week sounds like 1980 territory.  Houston hasn't been breaking records, and most of them the last few days were from 1980.  GEFS suggests maybe better luck with storms riding the ridge as it pushes W after 10 days.  GFS operational showing rain cooled 70s and 80s in much of Texas along/E of I-35 for Tuesday July 25th.

21 hours ago, Normandy said:

Data from the ECMWF and UKMet in Dr. Knolls superblend are still suggestive of an active hurricane season despite the El Niño.   Still guessing we get a lot of named systems but perhaps not a lot of strong ones. 

Does the blend differentiate between Gulf/Caribbean and the Atlantic?  Is there a link?  Dr. Klotzbach tweeted about a week ago that the warm MDR should produce ridging with would produce favorable shear in the E part of the basin, accepting that, it could be an active year but very E based.  There are transient periods of basin wide hostile shear on the Euro ensembles, but this shows what I think Klotzbach expects.  The fact that the ensembles do show periods of high shear even in the E basin, if that continues into primetime ASO, suggests even the E basin will have unfavorable periods which would limit the number and strength of storms.  Not attached, but the next 15 days look hostile W of about 50, except the Gulf.  That suggests little W of the Lesser Antilles, and any Gulf system would likely be of nontropical origin.

1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

I count only three - Ruth (1965), Winona (1989), & Ruth (1994). This is counting storms that passed within 100 miles of HI, & is inexact based on the crossover longitude as the NOAA doesn't display them. Winona is perhaps the most impressive in that it formed East of Hawaii and struck the Philippines as a tropical depression.

Does Iniki count?  I know it tracked well S of Hawaii, over the warmer SSTs and curved N.  Memorable for striking Kauai in daylight hours when many people had home video cameras.  Pre-cell phone era, but better quality video.

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

They should make Introduction to sarcasm a prerequisite to posting.

And I was to know you were making fun of Snow86 how, exactly?  Reading all the posts down to the his talk of Chinese models, I see it now.  Anyway, yep, I'm an idiot, I missed the sarcasm.  Happened before, will happen again.

25 years ago people were talking how easy it was to miss sarcasm on the internet, no voice inflections or body language.  That is for another thread, maybe in the OT subforum,

15 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

So how often do we see the potential of a system lasting not only to Hawaii ( I feel like this is a 1 in 5 year type of thing for Hawaii) but also going even into the WPAC?

Ocean E of the islands is below 26 and the islands of the Big Island have shredded TCs before, but Calvin could be the first US tropical storm of the year.

Maybe I'm missing something, but is this the expected OLR during an El Nino?