Ed, snow and hurricane fan

I hadn't read the ICT discussion but this showed up on X

The twitter/X people who had Fort Stockton trending (at least for me) were correct.  Timmer had it, now he is on a big rain shaft with a new wall cloud forming.

First watch of the day, N of the front.  SPC meso says Tornado Watch S of the front likely later this afternoon.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0183.html 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0629.html

I'm not sure whether 'Future Cast' is a private model, but Thursday night, both KPRC and KHOU used it, and it predicted the heavy rain Friday afternoon, not early morning Friday.  Getting to work in Tomball was hairy.  Nowhere near as much rain fell in Spring (I'm in the Spring ISD with a Houston mailing address).  The heavy rain fell in almost the same places.  HRRR 12Z is more rain just E of the worst impacted areas, and a lot of it, other models are drier.  River flood statements have dates of comparable floods, late August/early September 2017 (Hurricane Harvey) and October 1994 (flooding from remnants of Pacific Hurricane Rosa) are showing up.

It rained a lot at work near DWH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
839 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

OKC015-031-010200-
/O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0084.000000T0000Z-240501T0200Z/
Comanche OK-Caddo OK-
839 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR NORTH
CENTRAL COMANCHE AND SOUTHWESTERN CADDO COUNTIES...

At 837 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Boone, moving
north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Weather spotters reported a tornado south of Boone, moving
         north.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Apache, Boone, northwestern Lake Ellsworth, and Stecker.

I think 'SLIGHT' gets extended towards Wichita Falls if SPC buys the 3km NAM.  A lot of activity on the dry line.  Weak winds on forecast skew-T but near 4000 J/Kg MLCAPE suggests hail threat.  Not super exciting shear.  Line weakens after dark.  FV3 looks similar, maybe a bit less coverage.

Chickens, goats and a funnel cloud.  Didn't see dust on the ground.

I've been wondering about your ONI/US landfall correlation in prior cold ENSO seasons.  Far above normal NS but below normal US impacts, something most people would like.  I'm sensing another strong STR for Texas, and an early season TS/Cat 1 with some decent rain before the oven kicks on wouldn't bother me. 

42 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 As a near coastal resident, 100% of me would love for that to happen even though I’m certainly not betting on it as the odds aren’t good. Regardless, one of the top analogs cited by at least two well-known forecasters in April is 2010 because the MDR in March of 2010 was the 2nd warmest since at least 1981 and only barely behind March of 2024 (gray line just below blue line):

 In addition and similar to what’s forecasted for 2024, 2010 was La Niña that followed strong El Niño. So, there’s a decent amount of hope for the CONUS to luck out with 2024 tracks ending up similar to 2010. I say “hope” because in 2010 the CONUS had no H hits and only 2 TS that had direct effects (with one only a minimal TS). This was despite it being a very active season with a whopping 12 H and 5 MH, similar to where 2024 seems to be heading as of now.

 In 2010 (see image below), there were a whopping 8 NS that formed E of 42W. Even when looking at the aggregate of non-El Nino seasons, a large majority of those still don’t make it to the US even though a higher % do vs those during El Niño seasons. Fortunately for the US none made it past 75W, not shocking based on history.
 There were 7 that formed W of 70W. Not surprisingly, all affected land. Belize and MX were particularly hard hit from this group. The two TS that affected the US were from this group.

 

 Though not noted as an analog, 1995 (see image below) was another very active season with 11 H and 5 MH and with somewhat similar tracks. It also was La Niña that followed El Niño. Out of 12 NS that formed E of 72W, none hit the CONUS. But from the 7 that formed W of 73W, unfortunately 5 hit the US including 2 H (one H hit twice)(1 MH), very different from 2010.

Benefit of Twitter- I don't have the attachment space, but...

Radar indicated

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
256 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southwestern Freestone County in central Texas...
  Southeastern Limestone County in central Texas...

* Until 345 PM CDT.

* At 256 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located near Lake Limestone, or 7 miles southeast of Groesbeck,
  moving northeast at 35 mph.

Tornado risk in I-35 boundary from near the border to just S of Waco and then curving NE.  Lower dewpoints N of the boundary but high enough to support a tornado if a supercell can form and follow the boundary?  The4 circled area is essentially the ENH area.

Unfortunately I try to sleep at 1 am, but 12Z HRRR finally gets thunderstorms in Houston, with near 2500 J/Kg MLCape (after midnight!) and 40 knots effective shear.  Enhanced Severe on 1300 SWODY1 gets as close to Houston as San Jacinto County.  @Stx_Thunderhas access to t-storm probability maps.

This begins the time of year when the Corpus Christi 12Z sounding has 4500 J/Kg surface cape but a 99F convective T.  Amazing values of CAPE that will not be tapped by storms.

I spent weeks at a time living out of a small apartment (it has satellite TV) above the shop in Kamay, TX when we were drilling wells.  Kamay is in SW Wichita County about an hour away from possible impact.  I thought back when this storm was approaching Knox City it would easily pass W as it headed into Oklahoma, but it made a sharp right turn before Knox City.  I had thought if the storm produced a tornado it would have passed N of Knox City, in fact.

I can't tell what Nick Busby on RHY'A is looking at.

Confirmed tornadoes, but I haven't seen any chaser footage yet.  NW of Stillwater storm may be the first.  I'd have hoped someone would have tried to chase tail end charlies down near where the Knox City storm is.

Confirmed tornado Grant and Garfield cos. OK.  Time to see if Ryan Hall is livestreaming chasers.  I've haven't seen so many truly scary tornadoes livestreamed since 2013.

MCD mentions possible PDS watched by 18Z.  

Not sure if he is live on YouTube this early, I don't have time to find out.

Before it was clearly on the ground, it was the most rapidly rotating wall cloud I had ever seen.  The the multiple funnels appealed.  I was at work, not sure what got so many chasers on the one storm.  The MO tornado warning that Hall briefly showed on radar looks like it is soon to be on the ground.

Never see such a storm watching Ryan Hall.

Been consistent for days, heavy rain N & W of Houston, NWS HGX has issued a Flood Watch for the counties North and West of Houston, including Montgomery County.  HRRR is especially enthusiastic.

What has also been consistent, first on the globals, and now the mesos, a very sharp cutoff between heavy rain and much lighter rain.

Edit to Add:  My son flying from DFW this evening and American has been delaying his flight.  WPC has a meso rainfall discussion for pretty much the entire stretch of I-20.

Updated SWODY 2 has two enhanced area, one in N Kansas and Nebraska, a second in W. Texas and Oklahoma, the TX/OK one being conditional on storms developing.  12Z HRRR thinks the dryline in Texas will go, to a lesser extent the GFS as well.  3 km NAM still shows a stout cap.

SWODY 3 mentions a possible increase from SLIGHT for the ArkLaTex area.  Not seeing much on 12Z 12km NAM or GFS to support an upgrade, but it is at the limit of the NAMs.

2 hours ago, Crazieman said:

Is there a discord or something everyone wandered away to?  First nice looking severe event in my area in years and I come in to find it virtually dead?

It looked a lot better a couple of days ago on the models.  It had looked like storms would initiate early evening at maximum instability.  It is starting later, and low level instability is low.    GFS showing elevated storms, NAM doesn't show anything.  SPS forecast sounding below.  It might work if a special 18Z sounding but it isn't.  30% at 5 days, that usually means a big outbreak.  Still 3 day ENH, and SPC looks at stuff amateurs like me can't see or don't have time to see.

It may be too late already.  https://tos.org/oceanography/article/is-the-atlantic-overturning-circulation-approaching-a-tipping-point

Baseball hail just N/NW of Austin.  I assume this will grow upscale, may stay as far S as I-10 and wake me up an hour before my alarm is set for.