Ed, snow and hurricane fan

1 hour ago, Sandstorm94 said:

 

 

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I agree with 'Da Buh's point about declaring fish storms when the modeled recurve is still days away, but I unfollowed him, he posts what seems to be intentionally bad grammar in posts where he posts pictures of cloud blobs that don't ever develop. He seems a low rent Joe Bastardi without the political posts. 

95L looks to me to be more than a 40% two day development chance, judging by satellite.  Even with the shear from the East.  The hurricane models are mixed on developing within 2 days, HAFS A and HWRF are a bit over 2 days out, HMON and HAFS B close off an organized low inside 2 days.

Still a long way out, but GFS and Euro ensembles look fishier today than yesterday.  Still more than a few members are in the NW Caribbean.  First visible, impressive looking although I can't see a closed circulation.  It is probably getting close.

The Euro and GFS ensembles (and their ops) aren't that radically different in a week, really, but the difference in huge in impact.  GFS looks like an E Caribbean threat, Euro only about 200 miles apart, but suggests Bermuda may the only land that keeps 95L a pure fish.  And Bermuda is a small enough target it could be pure fish food.

1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

Both initial runs of the HAFS A and B have an intensifying hurricane by 100-126.

What is the difference between the A and B?

36-48 hours shear drops significantly and heat content rises, although SSTs are above 28C the entire forecast on the latest SHIPS.  Whether the Greater Antilles actually effects 95L, too far out in time and the land interaction may or may not affects intensity.  Eyeballing mid-point of the ensembles at 174 hours, ensemble mean looks to be near or over NE Caribbean and into one of the Greater Antilles.  At that time, other than 12Z being a little slower to spin up 95L, not a huge swing between 6Z and 12Z ensembles at hour 180.  I do wish WxNerds ensemble page adjusted the forecast time when flipping through the runs.

Gert/Idalia could weaken the ridge enough to influence this.  Giving it enough latitude crossing the Atlantic making it easier for the trough offshore ECUSA to curve it so it misses the islands.  Maybe. 

Nice original post.

GFS is into the Northern Lesser Antilles.  I'm not sure what new data comes in that changes models that much in 6 hours.  Over a week out, into the Caribbean vs missing the islands to the N is probably noise. It still looks like it will try to miss ECUSA, but its early.

5 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

If my memory serves me correct, Cape Verde storms that intensify quicker and much sooner before getting to the Lesser Antilles typically track more to the south. If I'm wrong, someone correct me please.

I could be wrong, I thought systems that stayed weak were more influenced by shallow steering, following the trades, and would be less likely to curve out to sea when there was weakness to N.  OTOH, looking at the Euro ensembles, there is a suggestion of stronger members being further S

47 minutes ago, andyhb said:

A lot of very strong members with potential Lee. Looks like a potential long tracker/high ACE producer at minimum. Not an auto-fish look either.

Models have gotten better in 15 years, but archived 2008 NHC forecast graphics show Ike recurving as ECUSA threat, not a Gulf threat.  Based on models out 5 days.  This system doesn't look like a Gulf threat, the ridge that produced record heat and drought in Houston doesn't move enough to let anything get anywhere close.  Looking at Euro ensembles, ECUSA aren't impossible looking at op 500 mb heights at 240 hours, generally supported in the means.. Euro individual members look fishy.  

Or fish is likely, but I can see some weenie possibilities. 

Wildly OT, but storms named Lee and drought - 2011's Lee (landfall in Louisiana, September 4) was dry on the W side, and its winds toppled drought damaged tree limbs onto power lines, starting a fire which destroyed ~1800 businesses and homes in rural Bastrop County, between Austin and Houston.  

The possibility Idalia might still exist in 10 days making surf for NY/New England is interesting.

1 hour ago, Master of Disaster said:

There is zero possibility that eye is 20 miles across imo. The eye contracting has been noted for at least two hours. Anyone have a way to measure the distance from eye wall to eye wall? I am curious if sat and radar actually show this or if it just looks that way? 

I could be wrong but I *think* recon found N-S elliptical eye 12 km x 8 km.  EDIT- I think it is 12 nm x 8 nm.

Quote

G. E18/12/8

8 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

Storm has wrapped convection all the way around the circulation including the ups head side, not convinced it’s not off to the races

Fading light on the vis loop shows a big explosion over the center.

On 8/26/2023 at 9:00 AM, Windspeed said:

Sorry, bro. Better practice Idalia. Like a vidalia onion, only no "V"....

Like a Vid-AH-li-a onion, it is a Spanish name.  All the English ones have been used.  Finnish has some good I names.

107° headed for 110°, but HGX radar showing some little cells popcorning to the N of Houston, and GRK showing more in the pipeline.

7 minutes ago, Tallis Rockwell said:

You mean the sub 895 mb hyperstorm?

The 12 km, obviously.

8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It looks fine to me. This is the only active flight. 

Mission 3 is at the top of my TT recons.  I see #2 at the bottom now that I looked down the page.  It doesn't take much to confuse me.  Speaking of, nobody seems to think well of the NAM as a tropical model, but 30 minutes to the 18Z run.  Be interesting to compared 12Z and 18Z.  More interesting to compare the globals, of course.

8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Regarding that Tweet assuming he is excluding both the Big Bend and Tampa, themselves, when he says "between", it would be extremely difficult though not impossible for Idalia to cross the coast in that stretch because most guidance shows it still moving NNE at that latitude and that part of the coast is angled NNE. October, when headings are more commonly NE to E, is usually a more dangerous period for that to happen.

I was a JB subscriber for Charley, he predicted landfall farther S than TPA area because of angle of approach and land interaction, he was correct, it seemed to happen again with Ian.  If this is forecast to almost parallel the Florida coast I wouldn't be surprised if it made landfall further S than the models would have suggested.  Edit to add- Euro ensemble paths a bit less oblique than prior mentioned storms, so it may not go S of models.

51 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’d take this to mean that we did get valuable storm structure data for 12z, but much more will be coming in subsequent model suites with high altitude and low level recon continuing through the day and evening. 
 

 

Did NOAA 9 G-IV have a problem, it looks like it turned around looking at TT

9 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

First graphic for posterity...

Minimal Cat 1 about 12 hours before landfall.  Anticyclone over the top on 12Z GFS should keep the dry air to the W and SW from mixing in too much, I'd guess strengthening until landfall.  It might be a Cat 1 more than 12 hours before landfall, of course.

First major of the season tomorrow.  I don't follow ACE that closely during the season, but lots of names and not that much ace, between Franklin and TD 10 which I'm guessing becomes an H, come closer to the 130 to 160 forecasts I've seen.

NWS forecast is 108°F tomorrow, but my daughter said the TV forecast (she thinks it was AccuWeather, that would be Channel 13) said an all time record of 110°F  20% chance of storms.  I didn't think it was possible to have a ridge strong enough for that kind of heat and have convection.  When I lived in DFW, the really hot days there wasn't a cloud.

Navy satellite site has TD #10

Does this look like it will spend much time over the Yucatan as models seem to be implying?

I think Charley is the closest big storm I can think of, although it came through the Caribbean and was stronger on approach.  Michael as far as landfall compared to GFS ensembles, but August to October makes a deal.  If the shift W on ensembles continue, eventually Mississippi and New Orleans could wind up as areas of interest.  Euro and ensembles will be interesting.  If I wake up in the middle of the night

21 hours ago, Powerball said:

Houston apparently made it to 109*F

Meanwhile, DFW broke more records as well with a high of 107*F and a low of 84*F (previous records were 106*F and 82*F respectively in 2011).

And thunderstorms developed at dusk.  IAG got 0.01, the first measurable rainfall in 7 weeks, I'd guesstimate half an inch on the lawn, and there a lot of wind.  Electricity came back at 2 am.  Sleeping w/o AC, how did people survive the 19th Century?

40 degree T/Td spread, 2 reports to SPC for wind in Harris County.