Ed, snow and hurricane fan

Just now, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Maybe not directly related to El Nino, but HRD's Andy Hazleton (Twitter) has a theory that with the warming being greater at higher latitudes, the Hadley Cells are distorted.  This, he thinks, might explain the wave breaking in the Atlantic that prevented development last August and stopped a couple of invests from developing this year.  He isn't stating as fact, but a hypothesis. 

Based on his hypothesis, I wonder if the 2022 season switched back on in meteorological autumn because the higher latitudes were cooling more than the deep tropics.  A hypothesis based on a hypothesis.

14 hours ago, raindancewx said:

To be honest, there isn't much support for the Hadley Circulation definitively expanding from Global Warming either. I don't really care what the Tip guy says, IPCC says it's still behaving within natural variation in the Northern Hemisphere. Go look into the section for the Hadley Cell. It's page 37 at the bottom. The Hadley and Walker cells really seem to behave fairly independently, and honestly the southern portion is probably responding more violently to the QBO because of the hole in the Ozone layer.

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter03.pdf

The human-induced change has not yet clearly emerged out of the internal variability range in the Northern Hemisphere (Quan et al., 2018; Grise et al., 2019), whereas the trend in the annual-mean Southern Hemisphere edge is outside the 5th–95th percentile range of internal variability in CMIP6 in three out of the four reanalyses (Figure 3.16b). For the Southern Hemisphere summer when the simulated human influence is strongest, the 1981–2000 trend in three out of the four reanalyses falls outside the 5th–95th percentile range of internal variability (Figure 3.16c; L. Tao et al., 2016; Grise et al., 2018, 2019).

So much of the discussion in here is idiotic. It doesn't matter if the Hadley Cell is wobbling, contracting, expanding, moving east/west and impacting ENSO development. The vast majority of the forum is outside the rising air / sinking air placement of the circulation, whether it's advanced north/south/east/west by a few tenths of a degree. IPCC has it moving 0.1-0.3 degrees per decade on the net. That's not a big deal for someone at 42N.

Your weather in the East is determined not by ENSO strength but by placement, as that links to the PDO and other Pacific patterns that make you warm or cold. RONI is just another toy for estimating strength using poorly defined estimates for how the other oceans should be behaving in the tropics.

Maybe not directly related to El Nino, but HRD's Andy Hazleton (Twitter) has a theory that with the warming being greater at higher latitudes, the Hadley Cells are distorted.  This, he thinks, might explain the wave breaking in the Atlantic that prevented development last August and stopped a couple of invests from developing this year.  He isn't stating as fact, but a hypothesis. 

11 hours ago, ldub23 said:

GFS has a TS and cane after that, maybe it  will get  more active

 

 

Less active. Looking at another  0/0 aug. In close  development  not  possible with a  mega  trof.

 

Variations between the different models, but a general trend of the W ridge, EC trough and Atlantic ridge all backing to the W.  OTOH, my unofficial 30% chance of a TC close enough to the US to be interesting hasn't increased (may decrease back to 20% based on 12Z Euro and ensembles), 6Z and available 12 ensembles have backed off a bit from yesterday's 12Z and 18Z runs, but a pattern that could result in a Florida or SE USA hit does seem likely in the medium (week to ten day) range.  Edit- all the 12Z guidance has backed off somewhat.

Bed time, GFS is out 8 days, and the only thing that stops a tropical depression from forming in the Caribbean (in an El Nino year, at that) is the Nicaraguan coast.  Not shear, not dry air.  See post on steering from 12 hours ago, this wave probably got there too soon, but personally, my low chance (say 20%) is now 30%, and maybe after tomorrow's 12Z run, I'll go full 40% orange.

Palacios, TX (PSX) tied an all time record high minimum of 87°F last reached four different days in August, 2019.

The end is in sight, the ridge shifts W, may be far enough from the ridge for 'ring of fire' storms in 8 or 9 days.  Op GFS day 12/13 a tropical wave is coming ashore as a cold front enters the state.  Rain and high temps in the 70s and 80s most of the state.

In the meantime, Monday's predicted 104 °F for Houston will be the warmest day of the summer.

The op Euro is well supported by its ensembles (and has less smoothing than a mean at 10 days).  If there is something there, there will be a US landfall threat.  There are some storms on the GFS and Euro ensembles, but not enough to convince me there is more than a low chance of a TC occurring with no operational support when the pattern favors US landfall.

Maybe OT, looking at ensemble chi forecasts, and the Canadian, GFS and Euro forecasts are rather divergent.  Canadian has pretty decent upward forcing around this time the other models don't predict.

46 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

I  have  no idea why CSU didnt  lower  numbers. Its  possible a  very weak frontal low could  be called a tropical storm but  AUG is  looking at  0/0

 

The Euro and GFS ensembles may be be starting to pick up on the activity the Euro weeklies are predicting after mid-month.  It has a fishy look, but get the storms first, then worry about the steering.  Another 0/0 August probably doesn't happen.

CIMSS MIMIC TPW product already shows lower PW air being drawn into the disturbance SW of the CVs.  I don't think the GFS is far from wrong showing that wave disappearing in the dry air.  It wouldn't be the first good looking wave that quickly disappears this year.

I think there is a much higher chance of something subtropical, not yet well modeled, forming off the East Coast, than anything MDR, for at least a week.

I don' really see CSU coming close to verifying.  Op GFS still going 16 days w/o a named storm, ensembles are kind of 'meh', and there seems to be a lot of dry air Central/Eastern MDR.  Where the upper convergence/subsidence is.  What activity the GEFS do see seems to form past 50W.  Yesterday's Euro weeklies still seem to like late August for W based systems that could be close enough to ECUSA to be interesting.

4 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

18z GFS develops the pictured wave into a tropical storm, which crosses the Atlantic and degenerates into an open wave in 3-4 days after formation. Shear values are quite low in the area, and vorticity has been increasing on all levels over the past several hours. 

The op Euro tries to develop something from the 3 clusters of storms offshore and nearshore Africa.  Middle level RH just N of the system is dry, but I think the issue is shear.  The disturbance is just S of an anticyclone which has low shear under the anticyclone but higher shear (rising in a short distance to over 20 knots) from the E just S of the anticyclone, over where best mid level RH is.  18Z GFS version is the wave moves out of the good moisture and dies in the desert.  The three blobs thing also may mean the system is strung out (TPW product suggests it as well), which seemed to be part of the issue with 95L and 06L.  But with some ensembles and the op Canadian develop something, it may provide something to talk about the next two weeks.  Especially with Euro ensembles showing a couple of mid Atlantic landfalling cyclones in 2 weeks

The larger number is based on Lanza's forecast.  The local Houston TV station with 10 day forecasts are calling for >100 °F every afternoon.

Not that there is a big cool down in 11 or 12 days for Houston and Dallas if he is forecasting SAT to remain above 100 °F for the full 15 days of the GFS and various ensembles (at least seems to suggest he doesn't see the pattern changing.  Also of note, red flag warnings from the San Antonio-Austin NWS office and critical fire danger over most of N Central Texas on SPC Day 1 outlook.

27 minutes ago, bigtenfan said:

The 16 day GFS show a parade of waves leaving Africa but none of them make it past the middle of the MDR.

The op shows a lot of dry mid-level (700-300 mb) air, which is what seems to stop each wave.  Not sure why the Atlantic is so dry, although downward motion is over the basin more often than upward motion, and sinking air will compress and heat up and have lower RH.  The general downward motion may be El Nino related.  One of the mets could confirm/elaborate

34 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

And then ya wonder whether the fact that this time it was  unprecedented water vapor vs. the usual ash, sulfur (or whatever proper term is) will cause a different effect.

It seems like this year was an acceleration of the trend of warming.  The Tonga eruption last year put an estimated 55 million tons of water vapor, a greenhouse gas, into the stratosphere.  Early discussions just how the gradual warming of the last 30 years might shift some expected ENSO response/coupling, and then add in a volcano putting a greenhouse gas into the stratosphere, and not fine ash and sulfur dioxide which reflect radiation back into space.  Mentioned often in this thread, not many analogs for a strong or super Nino with much above normal Atlantic temps.

I'm not sure I have ever seen cumulus buildups when it is 105°F (at DW Hooks, 101°F at the big airport) I doubt we'll see any rain (although I'd guess some lucky town somewhere in the Houston area will get some rain with gusty winds (30°F T/Td spread))

Edit- I've been in Monahans, TX, when it was over 110°F and dry lightning started a large brush fire, I don't know if the HGX area has ever had a dry lightning grass or forest fire.

I was in Monahans the day they tied the Texas all time record of 120°F.  Summer job, outside, in the oilfield.  Nomex (fire resistant) clothing.  1994.

37 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The 12Z GEPS/CMC and 0Z EPS also show hints of increased activity for midmonth around the Bahamas to Gulf vicinity. This all appears to be from an AEW coming off within a few days. It really doesn't look quiet on the models in general from my perspective though model activity and actual TCs are not the same thing of course.

FWIW, Canadian ensembles also have a strong signal for a Central American Gyre that produces storms in both basins.  I don't usually look at the GEPS.  I don't know if GEM (and its ensembles) have improved in the last few years,  about 10 years ago it was like using the NAM in the tropics.

@brooklynwx99  CanSIPs on the free TT doesn't have 200 mb velocity potential.  At least I can't find it.  Do you have ASO and/or A, S, O plots.

Down here DJF and ENSO is the difference between a mild, dry winter and a cool rainy winter.  Ninas are warmer, on average, but all the severe cold snaps (low temps 20F and colder) seem to happen in Nina years.

The trough along the East Coast looks to move W towards the central Great Lakes/Ohio Valley toward mid-month.  I suspect the Atlantic remains unfavorable with subsidence and dry air, but it would seem unlikely nothing at all (perhaps a non-tropical system becoming tropical) develops in the second half of August.  The Euro weeklies change a bit from run to run, but generally hint at activity near ECUSA latter half of August.

Hint of something not tropical on op GFS, an area of moisture with a very weak upper level disturbance near 40N/60W day 8 drifts SW toward the Bahamas around day 12, and from there, it looks like a standard tropical wave.  Moves across Florida, starts to organize in the Gulf, runs out of time.  Not to rely on a single op run, (hi, @ldub23) much of the run beyond the 10 day resolution truncation., but close in developments, maybe around the Bahamas, with higher heights to the E.  (That would bring back fond memories of 1976 and Hurricane Belle)

15 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Wasnt  1997 deader than dead? But to be optimistic JB  is saying  it again. WATCH OUT mid-atlantic

 

 

Euro weeklies the last week do seem to see an enhanced risk the end of August along and offshore ECUSA.  Weekly 500 hPa forecast Not shown) for that time, the trough is over the Central/Eastern Lakes down into the Appalachians, with higher than normal heights in the Canadian Maritimes.

Houston forecast high of 104 °F today would be the warmest day so far this summer.

Taunton in a severe t-storm warning.  Just checking in to see who was discussing that.

10 hours ago, Powerball said:

There are early indications that the ridge will finally break down by next weekend, and shift back westward over Phoenix, as blocking over Greenland intensifies.

Probably not an earth shattering change though, just a return to seasonal temps.

No sign the drought anywhere in the state will improve anytime in August judging by Euro and GFS weeklies.  Forecasts are as hot as anytime this summer.

Nothing on the Euro or GFS ensembles after 96L and the possible off the Carolinas sub-tropical system.  If anything develops 10-15 days out, I'd guess it'd be subtropical.  8/21 to 8/28, a small signal on the Euro weeklies for something off the ECUSA.

Speaking of 96L, SHIPS is as optimistic as any intensity guidance gets, and that is barely Cat 1 intensity.

Double the usual expected ACE for the week of 8-21 to 8-28 per today's Euro weeklies.  TC probs, the weeklies see 96L but aren't seeing the EC sub-tropical development the ensembles clearly see.  Maybe it does see it in the rainfall anomalies, but not in the TC percentages.  About the week of 8-21, perhaps hints of Florida being affected in rainfall anomalies.

As long as fronts can stall and decay E of Florida, ECUSA is not 100% safe.  No model support for today's Bahamas blob, but it probably isn't the last Bahamas blob of the year.

  Even an MDR system could miss the trough. Last two weeks of Euro weeklies have a >5% TC chance along ECUSA.