Brian D

Yeah it's pretty damn cold up here. Furnace kicks on every 5-10 minutes depending on the wind. Wind sucks the cold right out of my house. Been a while since we've had a stretch of cold like this, especially in mid Feb. These stretches are more normal for Jan into early Feb. Oh, BTW, this is the 3rd coldest Feb min on record in Duluth. -39 2/2/96 and -36 2/9/1899 are the top two.

Weak wave moving through on the 13th, with stronger weather much further south on the 14th. I was expecting something a little stronger starting on the 13th into the 14th, not a good call here.

Now that Jan data is out, I updated my chart for the Great Lakes region. Warm Jan's not unusual at all. Data source: https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/testdap/timeseries.pl Edit: changed graph with data from the region reflected here in our forum

Daily temps at Duluth and I-Falls, MN for this outbreak so far. Duluth (Hi/Low) 2/5: 6/-4 2/6: -4/-18 2/7: -7/-23 2/8: -4/-23 2/9: 2/-16 2/10: -1/-17 I-Falls (Hi/Low) 2/5: 3/-9 2/6: -9/-21 2/7: -11/-30 2/8: -7/-38 2/9: -6/-22 2/10: -5/-30

Looks awesome outside through the window. Clear blue skies, bright sunshine reflecting off the snow, and then you open the door....polar bear stampede. Very harsh stuff to have to endure for days on out. These are the days of winter I could careless for as this kind of cold can hurt you quickly. And the next heat bill will be a doosey to boot.

Nasty!

Ish. Morning temps would be even colder if not for the 10-15 mph wind. That's what makes this so brutal. Sub zero temps slice through winter gear pretty quickly with a wind blowing. This Afternoon A chance of flurries. Cloudy, with a high near 9. Breezy, with a west wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Tonight A chance of flurries before 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -8. Wind chill values between -20 and -30. Breezy, with a west wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Saturday Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 1. Wind chill values between -20 and -30. Breezy, with a west wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around -17. Wind chill values between -25 and -35. Breezy, with a west wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Sunday Sunny and cold, with a high near -2. West wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around -18. West wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph. Monday Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near -1. West wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around -16. West wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Tuesday Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near 0. Breezy, with a west wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Tuesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around -13. West wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Wednesday Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 3. West wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph. Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around -12. Northwest wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph. Thursday Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 3. Northwest wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph. And it's even colder away from the Lake, so TY big water and down sloping winds.

Something to shoot for? Oofta! 2-3 weeks of nasty cold blasts coming up is a rough month. Was in the service in Jersey back then.

Winds picking up, and birds leaving t-pole wires and heading for cover.

About an inch of snow here as it winds down. Now the cold infiltration begins in a few hours.

Basically the 6th-8th has lows running from the W to E bringing lots of snow and ice in the southern most part of our region. Then you have the LES nightmare going on, too. So yeah, there is plenty of action after an anemic Pt 1 of the season.

I don't get into my methods. I keep that close. I'm not trying to BS anyone, just having fun with this hobby. Have been doing it off and on over the years. I don't charge anything for forecasts like some out there do. I try to be honest and if I blow it, I own up to it. Whatever you wish to think about what I do, or how good or bad I am at it, I'll leave up to you. Thanks for your interest, and if the forum wishes me to stop doing this, I'll respect their wishes.

This needs watching. It may be a simple re-enforcing front with little fanfare as high pressure sinks into the plains, or energy from the W-SW riding up front could produce something significant in the Lakes. Edit: I replaced old map with new one. This was about what I was thinking my modelling method was indicating.

When the polar bears are imby, snowin like hell in the south

I think this is going last a bit longer overall now that I've looked more at my model, especially my way. A little reprieve in there but overall, pretty much the dead of winter. I did mention how really cold Feb looked in my forecast for the upcoming month . Looks like it'll pan out with big storms afterward like Valentines Day that I have noted. We shall see about that.

Maybe a weenies wet valentine dream!! LOL

No, it's my own creation. Sorry for the simple maps, tho. Not a graphics person. Just a simple paint program.

And Btw, next on the list is around the 10th. Gonna look at that.

Well, I hope you guys enjoy. My model did ok showing this system. Thought it had a better chance coming my way. Oh well, 3-6" of powder before the Arctic relocates is ok too. Snow pack good enough to handle the cold, which is a good thing. Go for it Cheese Heads and Polar Bears lol !

Brief but potent. Should be the coldest of the season for me. -17F was from the last blast (colder -20's west of me). -20's with this one, again, and more widespread. Many days of -10 to -25 lows with 5 to -5 highs is pretty rough from past winters. This will be a short one. Like them like that.

18z is showing what my model is suggesting. A clipper system zipping into the lakes. What it does for sure I haven't worked out. Keeping tabs on this one before it.

18Z GFS back to what it was showing a few days ago. Energy moving in from the SW along frontal boundary.

Different storm from this thread

Looks good for my forecast.