Brian D

So my forecast was something in between. The forecast for Good Friday was off. That sharp front came through in the days prior. Yes, there is another front moving in, but not what I was expecting. Saturday and Easter are close calls. The weather looks good overall. Enjoy your Easter holiday everyone

Just under an inch of rain here since yesterday. Pretty steady light rain with the occasional mod/hvy band working in. Winds running 15-30 mph, so nothing unusual. It has been snowing some today, inland across the Arrowhead region, but no reports as of yet. Haven't seen any flakes in town, but radar showing heavier snow out over the lake now as the colder air moves in.

Go here to watch Iceland eruption on this forum.

Typical Spring wx scenario. Cold, wet, and windy conditions today and tomorrow.

Gov model has the pattern I believe to be happening on the start of Easter weekend. 2 weeks to go, so we shall see.

Looks like this was close call. System a starting a little south than my map, and definitely a stm maker.

First week of May has this look with my modelling method. If that is what your looking for in a pattern for chasing. Trending more north as the month progresses.

Mother's Day forecast looks like mostly fair and cool weather for most of the region. Wet weather will be moving through in the couple days prior to this day.

5 days to go, and gov models have had something here off and on for a few days. Will I do better than last time? Hope so.

Here's the winter data for our region. Ended pretty avg in the record.

Results of last night's snow. Typical March style weather for our region, snow north with svr stms south, albeit a little early for tornadic stuff in MN.

About an inch on the ground right now. Very wet, snowman snow. Moderate snow falling right now.

Started off with some rain that quickly has gone to a rn/sn mix this afternoon. Big flakes. Should go to all snow this evening sometime.

Looks like some rain with thunder possible before the snow tonight. It's been a few weeks since this amount has been forecast for my area.

Been a while since I posted. Been real quiet on the weather front with rather mild temps at times, like today. Couple of cold snaps were mixed in there as well. Sloppy weather coming up in a couple days, though. Might see some acc snow. Feb temp data out, so here is how we stand for our region in the scheme of things. Definitely one of the colder Feb's in the record. Edit: Replaced chart with the one that should be here for our entire region, not just upper midwest.

You mean this? Right down to the Gulf coast. Very impressive

Really cold stretch ended yesterday, so I'll update my last report. Impressive Feb cold. Duluth(Hi/Low) 2/11: -4/-23 2/12: -7(R)/-19 2/13: -6(R)/-35(R) 2/14: -6(R)/-26(R) 2/15: 2/-24 2/16: 13/-28 2/17: 11/-22 I-Falls(Hi/Low) 2/11: -9/-36 2/12: -9(R)/-38 2/13: -10(R)/-42(R) 2/14: -7(R)/-35 2/15: 5/-39 2/16: 10/-36 2/17: 15/-28

Feb 1936 was a rough one.

Ok, here's my thinking on Easter weekend. Sharp cold front coming through on the Good Friday, giving us the chance of showers/stms (even some snow potential behind) followed by a ridge on the 3rd, with inclement weather for the more southern areas and an approaching front from the west moving in on Easter for our western areas. Boom, bust, or something in between, lets see how I do. Maps:

In the teens here in the Northland. WOO HOO! Furnace is getting a little reprieve from the 10 min kick-ins over the past 10 days. Looks like a similar setup to 1989 depending on anomalies for the rest of the month, especially in the West.

St. Patricks Day forecast looks good with an eye to the W/SW for a potential storm threat to the region afterwards.

That's true. And low max record was 31 in 1909. If 14 is official, then that's 2nd coldest max in Feb with 12 on 2/12/1899 being 1st. Smashed!! It would be tied for 3rd for low max in the entire record. 12 (2/12/1899), 13 (12/24/1983), 14 (12/22/1989) Edit: The morning low tomorrow looks to be top 5 or even 3 for the entire record. Awesome cold. Bet they are freaking out down there.

Ice compare for western Lake Superior. Feb 7 & 15. Didn't take long. And BTW, a bunch of fisherman needed rescue off the Duluth shore as the ice broke off and drifted NE. Caught them off guard. LOL And they have to pay for it, too. MN law went into effect back in the 90's because this happened so much. Costs a few bucks for the rescue squad to do it's job.

After some rough weather with the brutal cold, one more nasty morning before the uphill climb starts tomorrow afternoon. That's ENOUGH!! LOL

The highlighted area shows my thinking from mid Nov. I was pretty close with that particular forecast. Feb has indeed been very cold. I continue to believe late Feb/early March will have some strong cold snaps for that time of year. Bigger stms should stay south and east of me here in N MN until about mid Mar when I expect to be hit harder with them. Now that Valentine's is here, I do have forecast's for St. Patrick's Day and Easter I'll be posting soon. Hope I do better than V-Day. That was awful. I'm so used to forecasting for my region over the years, that expanding it has been a challenge for me. I hope to do better, but failure is a great teacher, too.