Brian D

Thunderstorms and heavy rain last night ate away my snowpack, (0.85" in town, and 0.94" at airport) then the winds kicked up after midnight, but not to high wind levels that they forecast. About 40-45 mph at most here. Snowing this morning that looks to be ending right now with about an inch on the ground. Start over I guess. Temps dropped down quickly from the low 40's at around 4 a.m. to upper teens at noon. Now that we've had a Spring break, let the real Dec continue.

WWA out for that time too. Gonna be slick out there in the a.m. ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Snow and flash freeze expected. Total snow accumulations of up to two inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph. * WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Minnesota. * WHEN...From 3 AM to noon CST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the Thursday morning commute. Strong winds could cause tree damage. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Much colder air will build into the region tonight through Thursday morning, causing flash freeze conditions. Wet pavement and roadways may become very slick as they freeze over!

Some rain just starting here. High wind warning issued from midnight till noon tomorrow. 50-55 mph winds. Shit sure is moving fast.

Looking at an 1" of rain w/thunder, then temps rapidly drop to 20 bringing 1-3" of snow with all that water freezing up, quickly. Winds up 45 mph. Currently it's 40 with a fog/mist with winds off the Lake slowly increasing.

Mid 40's tomorrow with a quick shot of rn/sn tomorrow night. Very windy conditions after, up to 45mph. Keeps looking like those of us that put up X-mas eve/day forecasts in the Holiday thread are going to see something moving through.

Light snow this morning has added another 2" with more on the way. Maybe another inch or 2 on tap.

Chicago's and Des Moines' extreme's for the second half of Dec (16-31). So, it would be unimpressive in mid Dec, considering the dates here. But it looks more impressive when you get into MN, and WI. Chicago 69.0 1984-12-28 1984-12-28 68.0 1875-12-31 1875-12-31 67.0 1877-12-20 1877-12-20 65.0 1982-12-28 1982-12-28 64.0 1877-12-19 1877-12-19 64.0 1982-12-25 1982-12-25 64.0 1889-12-24 1889-12-24 63.0 1984-12-29 1984-12-29 62.0 1967-12-21 1967-12-21 62.0 1982-12-23 1982-12-23 Des Moines 69.0 1889-12-24 1889-12-24 69.0 1984-12-28 1984-12-28 64.0 1946-12-27 1946-12-27 64.0 1933-12-22 1933-12-22 64.0 1939-12-17 1939-12-17 64.0 1976-12-18 1976-12-18 63.0 1941-12-21 1941-12-21 63.0 1965-12-30 1965-12-30 63.0 2004-12-30 2004-12-30 62.0 1939-12-16 1939-12-16

I did these up a while ago, good time to post them. Those temps above are extreme, especially for mid Dec.

Here's are Nov stats. Pretty close to avg overall for our region with very mild weather in the plains with some top 10/near record high avg's. Ohio valley saw some top 10 record cool avg's as well. Ended up being the 5th warmest Fall.

Here's the totals recorded for this system. We got hit pretty good. Forecast was on the money. Very cold out with breezy conditions. Very windy after midnight into this morning. Temps around 0 to 5 above right now. Couple days of cold, then a little more snow. LES should be pretty strong into the UP of MI.

Snow is winding down now. 12-15"+ north of me with about 6-8" here in town and towards Duluth. There may be another inch or two through the night, and the winds are supposed to pick up out of the NW and get a little gusty. Possible 45 mph into tomorrow. If that happens, then this will all drift around, but we'll see if they get that strong. Oh, and the temps will be dropping like a rock through the day tomorrow. Should be 0 or below by sunset. Hurray, NOT! LOL

Mod bands of snow have been consistent to my north (NW-NE). Brimson reported 8" midday, so many areas up there should be closing in on 12" right now. About 5-6" here in town with light snow.

16-18th, you guys are really warm according to my modelling method. SE ridge with a strong front coming along S CA. 40-45 my way is good for the heat bill. Too bad it won't last

Snow slacked off there for a while, but is pretty steady now. A good 4-5" on the ground with plows out and about. Snow was fluffier this morning, but now it's finer and packing a bit more. Temps were in the mid 20's this morning and now around 30.

Light to moderate snow this morning. About 2-3" on the ground already with much more to come. Two Harbors live cam https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MAKfJ0KyS4w

Just up the road from me is gonna be really bad. Winds will barely meet blizzard criteria, but the snow will be heavy up there. Pretty much near zero visibility. My model method has a warm period around that time too, so I agree with this forecast. It breaks down as we near the solstice. EDIT: I double checked, and it will be a little after this time of the 14th. 17-18th looks to be the start of a few days of generally warmer weather for the region as a whole. It'll flux a little, but definitely some mild air on tap.

They're upping the the snow total possibility as you have mentioned from earlier today. For areas north of U.S. 2, there is increasing confidence for accumulations exceeding 6 inches. Model guidance continues to show a strong signal for accumulations of 6 to 10 inches across the northern half of the CWA. Areas in the higher terrain of the North Shore may see accumulations exceeding a foot due to enhancement from Lake Superior and orographic effects. A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for these portions of the CWA from Saturday night to Monday morning due to the likelihood of 6 inches of snow or more. An upgrade to a warning will likely be needed. However, the watch wasn`t upgraded at this time due to uncertainty about the northern extent of the dry slot.

WS Watch out for Sat night thru Sun night for the Northland area. 4-6" with 8"+ along the higher terrain very possible. Northwest flow will continue for the Northland as we move into the weekend. Currently a trough over the Gulf of Alaska will move eastward with time, but not before pieces of energy split off and move out ahead of the trough. More specifically, by Saturday night a strong disturbance moves towards the CWA. This will be the initial start of a prolonged period of snow for northeast MN and northwest WI. Models continue in agreement on the start of snow which will be around 00Z Sunday for the southwest part of the CWA. As the trough transitions into its next phase this is where the models differ a bit. The GFS and ECMWF have an upper level low pressure developing by Sunday afternoon, whereas the Canadian and NAM12 still have an open trough. Regardless, the axis of higher snow totals appears to move northeastward towards the Arrowhead. For the same time frame, the associated surface low pressure does vary on location per the aforementioned models, however no matter the solution it is still west of the CWA thereby allowing for onshore flow for the North Shore. This will create a good scenario for lake effect snow to accumulate along the North Shore. Greater than 8 inches is likely for southern Lake and Cook Counties along with blowing and drifting snow as the winds will become gusty Sunday afternoon. Models come back in agreement for Sunday night with a trough over the far northeastern portion of MN to northwest WI. Due to that, a TROWAL and deformation zone will likely not be the leading cause of higher snow totals, but the prolonged period of snowfall will give the northland its first widespread measurable snowfall. Moving into Monday, lake effect snowfall will transition to the South Shore with likely snow totals of at least 8 inches.

Looks like I, and a handful of others will be busy posting snow totals for the next couple weeks. A solid 6" hit possible this weekend with a strong clipper system diving into the N Plains, and heading westward. I have a parade of systems (weak/strong) on the boards for the month from my own modelling method. As I mentioned weeks ago, "onward to an active, and at times, bitter winter".

Second band finishing up. Couple inches. Snow covered roads are very slick. It has stuck to the trees. Beautiful landscape.

Some light snow this morning, nothing much. Lucky if there's 1/2" so far. Typical clipper stuff. Another band may move through here later.

1-3" of snow will be moving through here starting 0dark30 until the aftrn tomorrow. Still some snow left from yesterday on the ground.

A couple inches of snow fell early this morning. A bit more than was supposed to fall, but it's white out again for at least a couple days as aftrn temps will go above freezing again in the coming days here in town.

You seem to forget that I had the low further north in my forecast with high pressure in place by Friday. Was a little behind as it started moving through on Wed, and I had it on starting on Thurs. And I did mention that even with the GFS maps in my posts. I did post a bad example there. I'll have to be more careful in doing that.

Southern energy stays put with the clipper moving through bringing light precip. Close call.