Brian D

What a difference a week makes.

I remember back in early June 89', I was driving home on leave from my base in NJ. Cruising I-80 across OHIO, ran into svr stms. CB was lit with chatter from the rigs. They were having a hard time keeping them on the road. Either straight line winds, or possibly a nearby tornado, not sure as it was in the middle of the night. Wind hit the car (Ford Maverick), and pushed me into the shoulder almost instantly. Heavy rain, very humid. Decided to head up through MI, and take the scenic way home. Crossed the Mackinaw Bridge very early (around sunrise), after a 3 hr nap, as I had been driving for a quite a few hours already. Loved that, but a little creepy up that high. Needed gas, so stopped in a little town somewhere on the other side. Was in shorts and T-shirt when I stepped out to gas up. WOW, 45 feels rather brisk after hot, humid just a few hours earlier. Was already that way in NJ, too. But the smell, and look of home there was awesome. And the sky looked much closer to the ground, and was so clear, and crisp looking. After funky air at sea level for many months, this was great. Still a few more hours to home though. I shivered most nights partying with friends, as I was accustomed to the hot, humid weather already. Took leave late Dec 90', and I drove home in an Olds (model escapes me). Coming across PA on I-80, doing 55, I saw the traffic halted at the bottom of the big hill I was on. Started to put on the brakes, when the car started to slide. BLACK ICE. OH SHIT OH SHIT!! My heart started pounding. I'm racing towards the backend of a semi. Gently tapping brakes, and moving over to the right lane slowly, as there was another rig length of distance. Just barely was able to make it to the right shoulder, and get a grip on the snow. Heart, in my throat, I slowly moved ahead, and got in line. But when we were able to start moving, I just slid over into the left lane, then that shoulder, were I could get a grip again. Until we got to the sanded area, it was very slow going. After that, all good the rest of the way past Chicago, then northward. The night the Desert Storm op started, was at the hunting shack with my dad drinking, and having venison steaks. Heard it over the radio. Never got orders to go there, so felt rather fortunate. But was really nervous about it, and so were my parents. Air war did the job, tho. I-80 is tough man LOL

Duluth had a near record low max for Oct 17. Even a little colder than 2020. The avg min is 35, so pretty cold. 1930/48 28 1972 30 1916/2022 33 1880/2020 35 Two Harbors was the same, but a little warmer being next to the lake. 1930 31 1972 35 2020 37 1992/2022 39

Just messing with ya. I know you guys down there have trouble getting good storms at times. My low end year is probably pretty average to you, and storms are pretty normal my way just because of the typical pattern we see. Well, here's to a banner year for you this season.

No fretting. Weather is like a woman. Nuff said LOL

Was wondering when you'd show up. Yeah, mid October slap in the face.

10:25 pm CDT - 10/17/2022 GILE, WI 18 That's just SW of Ironwood, MI. Uuffta!

After further discussion and clarification, there were 2 events, so 2.0 & 2.7 were correct. 4.7" in 2 days in mid Oct is very significant. It'll be interesting to see what happens later next week. Shades of 2020. Duluth OCT 2020 Date Precipitation (in) Snowfall (in) Snow Depth (in) Max Temp (°F) Min Temp (°F) 2020-10-01 T 0.0 0 50 37 2020-10-02 0.00 0.0 0 42 34 2020-10-03 0.00 0.0 0 44 29 2020-10-04 T 0.0 0 52 29 2020-10-05 T 0.0 0 65 42 2020-10-06 T 0.0 0 68 41 2020-10-07 0.00 0.0 0 63 44 2020-10-08 0.00 0.0 0 62 34 2020-10-09 T 0.0 0 80 51 2020-10-10 0.00 0.0 0 55 40 2020-10-11 0.01 0.0 0 58 41 2020-10-12 1.17 0.0 0 60 45 2020-10-13 0.00 0.0 0 58 39 2020-10-14 0.51 0.0 0 49 37 2020-10-15 T T 0 44 28 2020-10-16 0.01 T 0 41 26 2020-10-17 0.24 1.9 0 35 27 2020-10-18 T T 1 31 23 2020-10-19 T T 1 33 25 2020-10-20 0.47 5.8 6 34 29 2020-10-21 0.02 0.1 4 34 31 2020-10-22 0.32 4.1 4 34 30 2020-10-23 T 0.1 7 34 24 2020-10-24 T T 5 31 21 2020-10-25 T T 4 27 21 2020-10-26 T T 4 28 16 2020-10-27 T T 4 30 13 2020-10-28 0.03 T 4 37 30 2020-10-29 0.00 0.0 2 32 23 2020-10-30 0.00 0.0 2 40 20 2020-10-31 T T 1 46 26 Duluth Oct 2022 so far Date Precipitation (in) Snowfall (in) Snow Depth (in) Max Temp (°F) Min Temp (°F) 2022-10-01 0.00 0.0 0 58 48 2022-10-02 T 0.0 0 58 49 2022-10-03 T 0.0 0 70 51 2022-10-04 T 0.0 0 70 55 2022-10-05 0.03 0.0 0 72 54 2022-10-06 T 0.0 0 54 34 2022-10-07 T T 0 44 30 2022-10-08 0.00 0.0 M 61 32 2022-10-09 0.00 0.0 0 51 32 2022-10-10 0.00 0.0 0 62 32 2022-10-11 0.01 0.0 0 77 42 2022-10-12 0.03 0.0 0 56 38 2022-10-13 T T 0 44 31 2022-10-14 0.13 2.0 2 43 31 2022-10-15 0.23 2.7 2 44 31 2022-10-16 0.02 0.4 0 41 31

12-16" of snow being reported in the western areas of the U.P. so far this morning. Snowing hard.

Looks like Duluth reported a 2.0" and a 2.7" the last couple days. 4.7" would make that the 3rd snowiest event for the first half of Oct. behind 1966 & 1925. Wow! Update: Sent an email to NWS Duluth regarding the amounts reported. That seems way more than anyone else got. Possible they screwed up. Thinking 2.7" is the total overall, as that is in line with all the other reports. Update #2: They responded quick. 2.7" was the total. Hopefully they will make the corrections on there prelim CF6 form, and it should make it into MRCC.

2020 would be an example of cold, snowy Oct followed by a mild winter (even tho FEB 2021 was harsh). But in looking ahead, I see this winter being a lot like what we have seen this Fall. Very mild/cold at times.

So-so. But the amount that sticks is usually quite small, if any, so anything over an inch would be significant. By late Oct, tho, as the average temp is much cooler, then you see more.

UP going to get hit good with significant snows. Weatherbo will be off to a strong start to the snow season. Hope he's doing Ok. Figured he might show up with this event in the works.

Just out of curiosity, I looked around this time frame, and I do see a pattern with a SE ridge, and N Rockies ridge. Low pressure in the C/S Rockies region. Something to watch up this way. Not at all unusual to get good snows at the end of Oct. A little push from the north, and some stubborness in the southeast puts potential my way. This Oct reminds me of 2020. A cold, snowy one. Last year was record highs.

Weenie time

Looked up Duluth's 1 day 2.0 or greater snows. Not very many for the first half of OCT. This was significant.

GFS 00Z run last night has a close representation of my expectation for Halloween. Didn't have approaching system marked, as I didn't think it necessary, as high pressure will be the dominant feature that day, IMHO. Just being quick.

Been seeing snow showers the last couple days. About a 0.1" in town yesterday morning. Just wet today with some early morning mix. Duluth has reported 2.7" total since yesterday, and there are widespread reports of 1-3" across NE MN/NW WI.

For New Years, I have a Canadian front moving across the north with some energy in the south that I think has a chance to move north along the boundary. If not, it'll just get shunted east to southeast ward as high pressure settles in over the Lakes.

Well here are my last forecasts of this year for Christmas, and New Years. For Christmas, looking a little mild with a potential system working through the western sub over the holiday period. This could be centered a bit more north, so we'll shall see how this pans outs.

Hibbing seems to be an outlier. Even Duluth has snow recorded similar to I-Falls. Must an issue with making measurements or something.

Just taking a look at Hibbing, MN records of early Oct snowfall, been a while since even 0.1" was recorded in the first half of the month. It's really chilly this time of year, so we'll see if we get something sticking up there tonight. I-Falls is a different story, they have more recent totals. I-Falls, MN recent early Oct records.

And so it begins.

Duluth made it to #3 warmth yesterday. Was watching my grandsons football game yesterday evening. Awesome weather. Mid 60's in town with 70 at the airport. Duluth, MN 2015 84 1 1995 79 2 2022 77 3 1934/55 76 4 1938 75 5

Very so-so forecast, not much precip, and the high moved in a little quicker.