Brian D

7-9" along the shore here, and yes, heavy, wet stuff. Forecast has snow to rain during the night here then transition back to light snow later tomorrow. Looks like some heavier bands are working their way north towards my area. Should be here in a couple hours. Forecast looks ok so far. I think we'll hit min guidance, but epic fail on winds. Gusts to 25 about it.

Have about the same here, and stronger returns are starting to move my way.

Lighter snows so far, have now turned into a steady snow. Grass is getting covered. Winds still light. Snow totals have been scaled back by 1-2", 12-18" instead of 14-19", and winds have been as well. Expecting up to 45 mph, instead of 50-55 mph. That's ok, as less of a chance for power outages. So we'll see how well the new forecast pans.

Latest for my neck of the woods. Blizzard warning issued already along North Shore. A mix is possible Monday aftrn, and winds should start to slackin then too, as LP gets closer. Now lets see if this big dog produces. Southern Lake-Southern Cook- Including the cities of Two Harbors, Silver Bay, and Grand Marais 335 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of 14 to 19 inches and ice accumulations of around two tenths of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 55 mph.

NWS DLH putting up their storyboard this morning for the potential next Monday. Basically a month's worth of snow in one shot for most of MN, and N WI. And for some, could be a top 5 ending to the month.

Yeah, this last season was flipped from then.

Looks like your being dry slotted now. Well, I say "Don't count your chicks before they hatch". Models, and reality are 2 separate things.

MSP could end up with a top 5 snowiest March if the 2 (possibly 3) systems put out decently by Easter. If not MSP, some of the other stns across S MN sure could. 40.0 - 1951 37.1 - 1965 36.8 - 1985 29.9 - 1917 25.6 - 1940

Forecast discussion out of NWS DLH. Expecting a good ol' fashioned blizzard here on the North Shore. The main feature of the forecast is the expansive Colorado Low that is progged to arrive late Sunday and linger through early Wednesday. Latest guidance has pushed the arrival back several hours, and maybe decreased the overall QPF from the system a bit, but this still appears like it will be a significant system with long periods of heavy QPF in a cold air mass with strong northeast winds off of Lake Superior. I would expect blizzard conditions to develop along the North Shore with winds gusting to 45 to 50 mph in heavy snow. In terms of ensemble spread, the floor or minimum amounts of snow expected with this system are quite high at 6 to 9" over the most populated areas of our forecast area, the ceiling or maximum amount of snowfall expected are also quite high with over 2 feet possible (some locations may approach 30")!

They change there clocks over there at the end of March. So after Easter, they should be in sync with others.

As for Winter 2023/24, it's currently 3rd by the slimmest of margins behind 1931/32. 1931/32 (4.479) & 2023/24 (4.459*). Once all Feb data comes in, we'll see how that goes. 5 & 10 year trend charts shown respectively.

It's the first day of Spring, so I thought it would be good to wrap up Winter data. Some data has yet to come in, but that is nothing unusual. Agencies report when they report. Feb 2024 is currently running in 2nd behind 1998 by a couple tenths. 1998 (6.074) & 2024 (5.803*) This will change when all data comes in later. How much is yet to be seen. 5 & 10 year trend charts shown respectively.

The way I see it, when those legs spread.....GAME ON!

A longer stretch of a false Spring, followed by wintry wx can cause serious damage. Wait and see I guess.

Decent forecast, but the energy in the S is a bit more south, and the timing is off by a day.

A windy aftrn with snow showers. Chilly wx on the doorstep, but nothing too cold. Pretty seasonable stuff.

Yeah, LR is good to see potential pattern development, not temps/storm intensities, etc.

ERA5 data is correct up my way, but I also know how to play "Reindeer Games" too. But of course my new name would be "Rudolph" now.

Been really mellow wx wise my way, and fire danger is on the rise if we don't get a good rain/snow soon.

This date in Wx History March 14. Interesting that the term "Blizzard" was introduced to the populace back in 1870. Wonder what terms were used prior to that? Rather nasty ice storm in 1943. Duluth had it's weather office at a downtown location until the late 50's I believe, and airport data started in the late 20's, so there was overlap that was threaded. 1943: Snow, sleet and ice cripple parts of Minnesota south of a line from Duluth through St. Cloud and Ortonville. The heaviest ice was in the vicinities of Lake Benton, Springfield and Windom. Ice thickness was 1/2 to 3/4 inch around St. Cloud to 3/4 to 2 inches in the Pipestone, Ruthton, Lake Wilson, Slayton and Tracy. A good description of the ice was submitted in one report: '…ice was 2 inches across and 1 3/4 inch deep on wire. A little frost ice near the wire with the outside solid ice. The ice was irregular in shape.' Duluth had 6 inches of snowfall at the city office with 13 inches at the airport. The ice was confined to Moose Lake and south. 1870: A severe snow and wind storm moves across Minnesota and Iowa. The 'Northern Vindicator' of Estherville, Iowa becomes the first newspaper to use the term 'blizzard' on this date.

LOL. Let's just pick 1974 as a start date. So funny LOL Like there isn't data going back another 30-50 years at least.

And so it begins again. UGH!

Yeah, I cringed a bit when I put up my forecast. Fingers crossed for stellar viewing.

Speaking of the eclipse, I put my forecast for it on the Holiday Forecast thread today. Wx been so boring around here, and dry. Classic El Nino wx I guess. And I'll be posting Feb/Winter anom charts a little late this month. Want to wait for more datasets to report. Gonna be close to the record of Feb 1998, if not beat it.

Forgot about the solar eclipse. Hope this is wrong, but a quick moving front on the 7th-8th moving through our region. If this pans, hopefully it'll be through before the start of the event during the afternoon.