Brian D

New dataset available that goes back to 1845. I have a dataset that goes back a little further, as well. So with 2 sets, can post an avg from 1845-1849. That will be the new start year from now on. Very little difference overall, but thought it would be nice to repost July back to 1845.

Chihuahua showed up for Dog Days

Prelim data in for July, and we have another avg July in the books. 5 & 10 yr trend charts shown respectively.

After today, much better.

CA front moving through the N with shwrs/stms. LP that I have noted is running a bit more N than I thought along the boundary, and coming in the W sub on Monday. That will affect the southern half of the sub Mon-Tues. So I was too slow on the N part, and too quick on the S part.

Low 90's this afternoon with dews in the mid 50's to around 60. Hot, but bearable.

Looking for temps in the upper 80's today, but with lower dews, thankfully. Same for tomorrow. Then seasonable wx returns.

C WI between Madison & Rhinelander getting hammered with heavy rains, and a bit of hail. Very slow moving stuff. Not good.

Getting robbed my way. Rain was moving in yesterday, and it all collapsed, and I ended up with gusty winds for about hr. Felt good tho, as it was muggy. Now this morning. getting the N fringes of some showers from LP moving through. Back to seasonable wx next week 75/55 with low dews. A.M.'s are going to feel chilly after this run of muggy, warm wx.

Nice stm complex over C MN. Should see some type of action around supper time. Currently mid 80's with dews running mid 60's to around 70, so a nice, warm day, but not oppressive around my area. That'll change in a couple days with low 90's on tap, although dews shouldn't be too high, hopefully.

Only ended up with 0.19" of rain yesterday. It ended up moving E over the Lake. Cloudy start to the day with some showers around. Should break into the low 80's later with the Sun coming out. Point showing 90+ come Fri on a light W wind, about the same on Sat, as well. That'll be miserable.

Showers with a little thunder have blossomed over the W tip of the Lake, and am currently getting a nice rain. Have been keeping the windows shut during the day, and open at night, but the rain cooled air feels very nice. South Shore in Douglas county WI is currently under a flash flood warning. Complex is just sitting here, and expanding this morning.

Lastly, for Oct, is Halloween. Looks like a strong front/system moving through bringing brisk weather behind. N/W areas will probably have a chilly evening for trick-or-treaters with some wet weather possible in the S/E areas. Looks to be moving rather quickly. Oct will be a month of variable patterns, so it's hard to get a read on how warm or cool it will get. Going with a near to above avg end.

On Columbus Day, I'm looking for a front moving through with possible energy from the W riding along it in the S areas. It looks like HP will stay a little N. Mid Oct may see a more W/E flow, keeping things a little milder, and wet.

As we enter Oct, we come to Child Health Day. Looks pretty nice under HP, with some cool am temps probable.

Next is Constitution/Citizens Day. Looks like a cool, wet day with scattered showers in the N areas, and more organized weather in the S areas. Brisk weather moving in is what it looks like. On that note, Sept, in general has a much more Fallish feel this year than we have seen in recent years. 2020 was the last year we saw a cooler month that ended being near avg for the sub. Since 2015, Sept's have been rather warm.

Finished up more forecasts for Sept-Oct. Grandparents Day comes shortly after Labor Day each year, and this year it looks like some wet weather will be entering our sub after some nice days under HP (although radiational cooling could have us see some cool am temps).

Another warm, muggy day on tap, but today will start the stm/svr stm potential thru tomorrow. 1-3" forecast for my area. Currently only have 1.88" in the bucket for the month. 4.05" is the avg. Lack of substantial rains recently has been a good thing, tho, as we had too much in June, and early July in NE MN. Hydro system has mellowed, so any heavier rains should not be a big problem.

Was just thinking, Dog Days around my way can be from a Bull Mastiff to a Chihuahua. Bull showing up this week.

Temps peaked around 88-90 with low-mid 70 dews around here. Sweating to the oldies day lol. Normal stuff for S sub tho.

Looks like a pretty good call here. Timing off a little, but a good forecast.

As of 10 am, skies are cloudy with temps in the low 70's, and dews as well. Very muggy. Sun should pop out later, and temps rise into the mid-upper 80's. Dews should drop some, but it's going to be a stifling day. Same for tomorrow, but then stms enter the picture.

After the above little project in the quote, I wondered what the dataset would look like if I attempted to take out the suburban taint in the data. Just a a possibility on what would a truly rural look the data would have. This is what I came up with after perusing the metadata on site locations, and coming up with correction figures. The adjustments were not too aggressive. It's a rather fun, but tedious exercise. When you have data going back into the 1820's, hey, why not.

Only beat you by 5dF. Chilly, cloudy day with a stiff Lake breeze. Although the Sun did peak out late this aftrn for a bit. Not much help.

Came across this site a long time ago. It has a reconstruction of temp data starting in 1820 from Ft. Snelling. Apparently it's the only reconstruction that has been done on data from early pioneer days. At least from what the article says at the time of the writing of it. Maybe that's has changed. Not sure. Here's the link to the site, and you can access the data, and writings from there. https://www.climatestations.com/minneapolis-2/ But anyway, I got to thinking recently, what would that early data from a rural setting look like if you add more rural data to it up to the present day. The chart they present is Ft. Snelling data with Minneapolis/St. Paul threaded data. So I found some co-op stations to use in my new, more rural revised dataset. They're about 15-20 miles outside of the MSP airport. Farmington, Rosemount, (both S) and Chanhassen NWS (W). Farmington 3NW (212737) 1893-2009, Rosemount Research Center (217107) 1951-2023, and Chanhassen NWS (211448) 1996-2023. Data has been time corrected for Farmington, and Rosemount. Chanhassen is 2400 readings, so no correction needed there. I then averaged them. The threaded data for the Twin Cities: St. Paul 01/1873-04/1891, MSP downtown 05/1891-4/8/1938, and MSP airport 4/9/1938-12/2023. Since Farmington starts in 1893, that leaves a 20 yr period with no comparative data, so I had to reduce it by using the avg difference between Farmington (early decades), and MSP which ended up being -1.5. Here are the results of my work. You can see how much cooler it is outside an urban environment, and it's especially noticeable from the time ASOS readings started to be taken from within the runways at MSP airport in 2002.