IronTy

It's even worse. Because I needed my daily dose of melancholy I listened to the rest of it, hoping for some rah rah pep talk about the Arctic freight train about to let loose. Joke's on me, it basically ended with him and ominous phase-6 and SER talk and hinting that we're SOL if the ridge pumps. When you've even lost JB from your team in the quest for winter then shit's pretty dire. He tried half heartedly to throw out 2014 as an analog but I could tell even he didn't believe his own words.

JB asked Grok about the MJO and it basically told him to come back in early February. Also he admitted the 1985 analog is off the table. Not sure what took its place, I was too disgusted to listen to the rest of it.

I don't know much but I know I'm getting tired of these fuggin gray overcast days.

That's what I've been saying. Outside of thunderstorms, how many 1.5" rain events have we had this year? The odds that were going to break the streak and get 1"+ qpf just so happening to line up as a snow event seems too good to be true. But at least this winter we've proven we can do cold still.

Second half of January is gonna be rockin'!

You missed out on the politics thread, eh?

That's the storm I need to win the snowfall contest. No chance.

Whatever, I'm reasonably confident we can get cold air by the latter half of the month. My top analogue is.....1985. I was only 4yo that winter living in Michigan so I have.no idea what it brought here. What I'm not reasonably confident is precip. The drought presses on for the next few weeks and I see no reason it lets up this month.

Social media is so dumb. In the good ole days of forums we didn't have emojis or high school clique level rating systems. Thanks MySpace.

Maybe I can plant my tomatoes in the garden next weekend! My petunias are barely hanging on, if they can make it a few more days then they'll be golden.

Do weenie ratings actually count for something in the forum? It seems like ravensrule weenies most posts but I just assumed it was a joke and didn't know it was a serious thing. Where can I find my weenie count?

I guess that's our 1985 look. Now we just need the moisture.

Man I went big for BWI this year trying to send them some good vibes. I hope late January produces for them.

Yeah, it depends on where you live. I grew up in a house built in the 1800s so there wasn't exactly a snow code for that roof.

Another thing - if you actually live there, LES becomes a stress because you really need to keep your roof cleared off so it doesn't collapse. When you're a kid it's cool, but once you get older you start to worry about the roof on your older home. And snow invariably seemed to blow into the attic and cause water issues in the ceiling.

I can't believe I missed it by a couple days. There better still be some snow at the end of January.

When I used to live in Michigan we got sick of LES after a time. Once you got enough base to snowmobile anywhere you want to go then anything on top of that is just a hassle to find somewhere to put it. Also, knowing that it's not til May before winter really ends kinda sucks. Also, as soon as the lakes freeze over, there goes your LES. No such thing as a coastal storm up there. Or here, either it seems. Also, there's something kind of unsatisfying to be stuck in a LES band for an hour then then have it shift a couple miles and be blazing sun out. Doesn't feel right. Better than this snow desert though.

Yup, and we can talk about cold patterns two weeks off but unless the overall, large scale pattern shifts then that just means it's cold and dry. Which I guess some people like, I don't care I just want the drought to end.

For me, this is the only map that matters. Until this map starts showing a sustained change, it's all just wish casting.

Hey I'm digging that 70F high temp on jan-10th though!

12Z GFS ain't it for the Sunday potential.

He's been honking that 1985 thing for seemingly weeks now. Hopefully he scores a coup.

Looks like I'll be going to work...

I have much experience backpacking in Dolly Sods over Christmas as it was an annual thing for my wife and I for quite a few years. You will likely have the entire place to yourself this time of year. You have to park at the Laneville parking lot unless you have a 4wd vehicle with snow chains (assuming there is snow which there likely is!). The state does not maintain the primary road that leads up to the sods themselves during winter so it won't be plowed. But Laneville is easily accessible. The issue there is that Laneville is at the lower end of the Red River so you have to hike all the way up the red river falls trail to get onto the sods proper. With a foot of snow on the ground this is likely more than you can do easily in one day with the short daylight we have now. However red river falls trail is very scenic with some river crossings (probably iced over now) and has tons of gorgeous rhododendron as you gain in elevation. We would generally start from Laneville and snowshoe backpack up to the top of red river falls trail and then camp wherever we could find a flat spot for the tent before dark (gets dark early in the mountains). Then the second day we would snowshoe up on the sods and camp up there the second and third nights. Then come back down the fourth day. It's really epic winter camping but not to be taken lightly when there's significant snow - expect it to be very cold and very windy.

I'll be labelled a deb downer but I'm getting the same feelings I had a couple years ago when we were promised the epic February period. Luckily it's only Jan, so even if it sucks we still at least have February for something. But I'm wary of any map forecasting AN precip in our region. We haven't had that all year outside of some isolated thunderstorms which don't count in January, so I'm side-eyeing that map.