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SUNYGRAD

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  1. SUNYGRAD
    I think one (forecaster) should consider the convective component of models and interpretation of types of precipitation.
  2. SUNYGRAD
    Skew-T Parameters and Indices (weather.gov)
  3. SUNYGRAD
    1 million may lose power in Carolinas after ice storm: Duke | Charlotte Observer
  4. SUNYGRAD
    Sensitivity of Ice Storms in the Southeastern United States to Atlantic SST—Insights from a Case Study of the December 2002 Storm in: Monthly Weather Review Volume 134 Issue 5 (2006) (ametsoc.org).
  5. SUNYGRAD
    Something to keep an eye too leading into this evening. Temperature advection at 925 (below).
  6. SUNYGRAD
    NAM 3k running close or a little warmer with pocket of warmer temps in SW NC. It depends upon sounding location that you pick.
  7. SUNYGRAD
    NAM3k is lightly cooler overall at 18z at 850 than above depiction.
  8. SUNYGRAD
  9. SUNYGRAD
    From RAH discussion this morning. LOL The great Appalachian chain has not moved that I have noticed (even with the Sparta earthquakes and tremors this year). So, unless the high becomes centered to our NNE (arctic air air will not roll down the eastern seaboard into the Carolina`s). It will stay west of the Appalachians.
  10. SUNYGRAD
    if interested in reading material. AMD, Cray, Nvidia Behind Massive NCAR Supercomputer Upgrade (nextplatform.com)
  11. SUNYGRAD
    IBM GRAF has done fairly well in some the past NE storms, but I do not access to the model or any statistics. Just my observations.
  12. SUNYGRAD
    Keep any eye on this next few hours. Critical thickness. It will be interesting to see if the 1000-700 dips some-
  13. SUNYGRAD
  14. SUNYGRAD
    They have done well in past. Tough forecast
  15. SUNYGRAD
    no real changes---maybe a little less in upstate into piedmont areas
  16. SUNYGRAD
    I agree with your mention of dry slot and any transfer. It will be interesting to see how the upcoming 00Z operational Euro depicts event
  17. SUNYGRAD
    Sharp gradient with snow and none in Piedmont areas
  18. SUNYGRAD
  19. SUNYGRAD
    Not much with EURO ensembles for central NC--I hate this. We shall see this afternoon. One member (#41)---from 00Z December 20----the most I saw from the 50 members. Most of the others show very little. This #41 will skew the ensemble averages. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/north-carolina/m50_snow-depth-in/20201227-0600z.html.
  20. SUNYGRAD
    12Z GFS. A no go for snow. The front is a litter faster in pulling thru too. No apparent wave of low pressure
  21. SUNYGRAD
    This system bears watching, as a wave of low pressure MAY ride along front.
  22. SUNYGRAD
    Just my observations, but this model didn't appear to perform that bad at the forecast juncture. I don't know much about it or find information, but perhaps it can and will used?
  23. SUNYGRAD
  24. SUNYGRAD
    The 24 hour record was also broken. It was 31.3 inches.
  25. SUNYGRAD
    Snowfall Extremes | Snow and Ice | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) (noaa.gov). for BGM or Broome county.
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