Modfan2
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Everything posted by Modfan2
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Under a Tropical Storm warning now in SE FL.
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Nice plot Ray; while at this moment I am too far east (pretty much on the I 95 sign above Palm Beach) for any major impacts other than rain and some breezy weather at this point.
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5am cone from NHC
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During Irma parts of St Lucie County and neighboring Indian River counties received 21” and there was quite a bit of flooding.
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Plenty of members show a Tampa area hit, not sure I would call that “wishcasting”. Nothing is off the table at this point.
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Most all models except GFS are around Tampa area
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5am cone from NHC, S FL currently out of the cone; this can change.
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Would a slower development mean a more westerly track into the Gulf?
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Hope so, don’t want any part of it; a Tampa north LF is fine by me!!
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I would think, at this point that is the outlier?
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5am track
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I mean why wouldn’t it, I close down here in 2 weeks and the few days later in CT….FML!
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Seems the quicker the right turn the weaker it is…
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If it does I assume a further west track?
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Is this due to the 2 centers of circulation, picking the further Sw as the main center?
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Is the thinking still Sw to Ne on track where ever it makes landfall?
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Wasn’t the Ukie the one that nailed the Irma track?
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I would think we would need to see some model consistency over the next few runs to see the if this is a trend.
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Thinking your second scenario is more likely.
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Nice line in E Ct -
I’m good with that, I close down here on the 7th and that the last thing I need!
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There were quite a few members taking this into the Yucatán
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This appears to be a reasonable track this early; a lot can and will change.
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Not going to happen, you may see 940-945
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I spent 2 1/2 weeks in the FL Pan Handle for Michael and was enough for me to see.
