Mr. Kevin

3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Not sure how I got into the Feb 20 thread!  LOL.  Last year's weeklies(about two weeks prior to the winter/ice storm) do indeed look almost identical to LR maps right now.  Correct link is above.  Thanks to @Holston_River_Ramblerfor posting those gifs.  They are a great historical tool.

I was very happy to be on the good end of February with very cold and snow. Very rare this far south. 

I like your optimism Carver, but I really truly believe winter is over already other than a few cool days behind a front. Pattern is locked in and we got alot against us in terms of any significant cold. Nothing we can do about it. I will be shocked beyond belief if we get a big shakeup this winter. Sorry to be negative guys

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Totally agree.....regardless of ONI, this is the most impressive la nina since 2010-2011.

Hello Ray. Any chance to get the alutian ridge to weaken or shift enough to allow the pna to somewhat go less negative? Or what do we need to happen? Lol. I'm still optimistic we get a few weeks of cold weather east of the rockies

I still feel a ice/sleet event somewhere close to our area, providing we have enough cold air. Pattern is tough right now for sure, but we got to try to be optimistic. 

53 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I am tempted to post the temp anomaly map for the Euro control at 360...super tempted.  The entire US is much below normal.  Looks like the Canadian ensemble, and 12z GFS.  I lean warm, but barely warm in my thinking.  I wouldn't be shocked for the overall high temp in January and low temp in January to have 80 degrees between them.    All it is going to take is one strong cutter into the Plains....and it is going to get super cold here.

The real concern I have is when we loose the -nao and ao, we have ZERO chance at that point and it makes sense. -pna is too negative currently 

29 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah. However, on the plus side, Models tend to underestimate the effects of the -NAO So, things may actually look up faster than expected. 

Bamwx does a long range video on YouTube but I can't find it. It was posted on southern.wx.  If the cold keeps getting delayed, it's not going to happen. No sugar coating it. He mentioned a +eamt event that should push a front through around the first, to me, it's a very transitory front, but with such a negative pna, who knows. I'm not a big fan of laniña btw

8 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

They are rather confused, lol

Still got a ways to go if we ever get there

3 minutes ago, BuCoVaWx said:

Then we all know what happened around 3 weeks later. Don't think I'll ever witness a blizzard like that again in my lifetime. Sadly I was only 9 years old lol.

 

I was like 450 miles too far nw for that blizzard of 93

Also griteater if you can keep us updated on Twitter every few days or when you feel something is worth saying I would appreciate it. Hopefully it's good news for cold at least temporary lol. 

49 minutes ago, griteater said:

None of the models really show the MJO moving much over the next two weeks, so it's hard to say what impact it will have down the line.  And the MJO is just one piece of it all, of course.  It's a tight rope though.  We certainly don't want the MJO hanging out in 3-4-5, so we'll just have to see what transpires with its movement going forward.  I'm less confident with Jan than I was a week ago though.  Western 1/2 of Canada is likely to remain very cold with that ridge in the NPac....plenty of years where we haven't had that going for us

See Weekly MJO Update from CPC: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf

Reason I said the mjo rmm charts is because I go to dacula weather mjo and it shows all models with the mjo and some, at least what I noticed have it moving alot more than the euro. Euro is probably right but I wanted to.point that out. Trying to stay optimistic lol

Griteater, I have a few questions. I read your recent tweets and good analysis. Do u still feel confident we get into a colder regime east of the Rockies at some point in January? It wasnt mentioned in your tweet that I recognized. Also, the rmm charts from the various models have differing solutions for the mjo. I guess my question is do you believe the ecmwf over the other models currently with the mjo? 

6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I don't see a delay at this point, but it certainly could happen.  Looks like the Jan 2/3 timeframe has been moving forward nicely during the past several days.  But we have definitely seen cold shots pushed back this winter and during past winters.  Just part of it.  Several days ago, this wasn't even on ensembles and now it is.  I always kind of feel like getting a pattern inside of d10 is key - almost there.  Indeed, the features which will induce blocking are due to begin forming within 2-3 days.   If cold "delays" on modeling, it will often hang up between d10-12 as it comes into focus.  In other words, when that happens it wasn't real in the first place.  The real fun, Mr. Kevin, is tracking a great storm for 10-12 days and have it only turn into a frontal boundary with some backside snow.   Time will tell.  I certainly understand the concern though!!!!

I will go out on a limb and say we are due for a major icestorm here. It's been a while. Our biggest ones have been 31-32 range.

The issue we are running into as you know Carver is the cold keeps getting delayed and not moving forward in time yet. I take a freezing drizzle event and be happy for rest of the winter in all seriousness. 

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

 The Austrialian MJO looks great.  Looks like maybe a seasonal Jan.  Someone at CPC has to be smiling after that Jan map.  Cause I bet they were sweating after that 12z suite yesterday!!!!

SW energy ejecting out IF enough cold air is available should cause ice and sleet concerns for some

14 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I use Pivotal, WxBell, and TT to name a few.  I usually watch the models run on Wx Bell, because it is easier to watch trends.  The 18z GEFS is a great winter weather pattern after 300.  Flipped back from 6z/12z to 0z.  Not often you see large scale features bouncing around that much over NA on an ensemble.  

That was mentioned on Twitter earlier about inconsistentcy right now

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

Not through with the run yet, but looks like the cold is going to get kicked eastward on the ensemble.  

Not sure where u get your stuff, I'm assuming wxbell. At tropicaltidbits, the gefs was done an HR ago lol. The graphics arent as good as wxbell

3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I don't sweat temps(LOL) after d10.  Pretty much just look at the trends at 500.  Out to about 294, the -NAO is the dominant feature with the are of AN heights in the Pac being weakened.  Hints of AN heights in Alaska which is a big change.  

If AN heights in Alaska happens, then game on for sure. If not game off lol. The Pacific is so important in sensible weather. Alutian ridging is the big thorn for sure so far imo

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

 

If you look at the GAWX post, it's all about the amplitude. Lower in Phase 7 was the coldest in January of all MJO phases for Atlanta. They normally get cold via the same way we do except for very extreme CAD.

Webberweather posted the phase 7 mjo chart earlier on southern.wx for January 

Was the 18z gefs ensembles colder than 12z? I usually dont focus on 18z ,especially past 240hrs. 

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 18z is the ying to the 12z's yang.  If you watch the global wind pattern at 200-300mb, you can see each deepening of the western trough is progressively eastward.  Why is that important if true?  That means the pattern is progressing eastward.  The 18z features a monster GOA positive height anomaly late in the run.  No idea where this is headed, but models are all over the place.  Likely culprits are a strat warm(no necessarily a split) and also bitterly cold air over the western Canada(likely a feedback problem).  Been a wild day of model watching!!!!

It may not mean anything, but alot of talk about some kind of warming in the stratosphere on Twitter. Also, john homenuk, also known as earth light on American weather, said a 1059mb high pressure is retrograding into Greenland. Thought I would point that out

18 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

When you see a ridge over the mid-latitudes(especially over eastern NA) hook-up with a -NAO....we have seen this for several years, and it nearly always precedes major changes in stratospheric anomalies.  The consequence of that coupling is model mayhem and extreme cold dropping into either EurAsia or NA.  That is all I have on that.  Let's see if that trend continues.  

Webberweather posted the -enso phase 7 example of the mjo  and it was pretty chilly for January. 

If the cold pattern keeps getting delayed, it probably wont happen imo. May be a winter we have to unfortunately punt and start thinking about next winter. I will hold on into mid January, which is usually my cutoff, but if no changes by then, time to give up imo.

57 minutes ago, JoMo said:

Interesting changes on all the ensembles as we head towards the end of the month with more high latitude blocking showing up and a more favorable Pacific. Been a really boring December. 

Hi jomo. That the key imo is the Pacific. If it dont cooperate, we stay warm. If it does, then all bets are off. I feel like the key is the Pacific and the ao. Imo of course 

15 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Fantastic post.  Click the header.

That much of an anomalous west-based -NAO on a 10-15 day mean is just insane. We should start to see some chances around Christmas into the New Year with shortwaves rolling underneath the block (like the 12z GFS). It might warm up for a bit as the SE ridge pumps for a day or two in that timeframe, but that will be transient if it happens. Models often take a while to see the full effect of the block on the longwave pattern, and the EPS has generally done a horrible job from the start determining the strength of the block to begin with, so I'm not so sure I trust its depiction of the pattern over the CONUS as much as the other ensembles.

 

That alutian ridge is incredibly intense currently. I'm not a big fan of it, but if it can shift somehow, we then may be looking better and I guess the mjo progression if it can happen. 

I notice the ecmwf has the ao going pretty negative and I'm assuming the eps does also but not to the extent as ecmwf op run.