Mr. Kevin

7 hours ago, JoMo said:

Yeah, I was pretty jealous of Montana. That's a crazy amount of snow. I think we paid for the above normal snowfall we had in the mid 2010's with the lack of snowfall for the last few years. Looks like we may get a weak El-nino this year. Was hoping for a neutral. 

Jomo, what you think about this winter with IOD and other stuff? I feel that its still early to even guess what may happen.

I think it's too early to even guess what winter may be like. If the IOD remains positive, i believe the trough would be over the central/east, which would match up with mjo in colder phases in winter. But of course i am no weather man lol.

5 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Easterlies into the IO today shows it weakens  sooner than what CFS has been showing recently,not really sure where the MJO will come out or how strong it will be.Still looks like a WWB around 120W,but there seems to be a more robust Rossby Wave today this could kill off the wind burst,you can see this around 120W,i still believe this will be possible to kick up a Kelvin east of the IDL

Hi jax. In reality, do we need alot of changes in Pacific and Atlantic to have a better chance at a colder winter? I hear so many possibilities and dont know who to believe  lol. Last winter wasnt cold except for November. 

9 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

The cooler balance of October is supported by the robust Kelvin wave and convection pushing out across the International Date Line. Last week of October could warm up again; however, I'm on board with a mild/cool 1-15 day forecast.

Unfortunately the rest of my post is bad news. Starts with early and dull leaves on the Cumberland Plateau. Had to go to/from BNA from CHA this week. Pitiful start to fall foliage.

Next the Modoki El Nino might not help us in East Tenn. I'm afraid most of the time the PNA sets up to deliver the the West and Plains better. October is no indicator. November behavior is much better correlated with balance of winter. Also +AMO is warm signal here. Believe solar min and -AO is not enough either, due to a weak source region. Falling QBO I think would normally be favorable (trend vs snapshot) but again source region.

QBO trend over snapshot was mentioned at the conference I attended last week, good stuff. Also we talked about possible opposite temperature behavior South with the AO, due to climate change. So like in summer -AO is actually warm South even if cold Great Lakes as the jet stream screams through the Ohio Valley. +AO I guess is torch everywhere.

Believe the only way back to winters in the South is a long deep solar min. If it is starting now, probably have to wait another winter or two. Then, when the solar minimum is over... See the Climate Change section for no more winter!

Hi nrgjeff, i am kevin from ne arkansas. Ive read your posts for years and i am finally commenting. I have a few questions. I know its only October, but do you think it should be a colder winter than last winter? From my understanding, and correct me if i am incorrect, but if the IOD remains positive and qbo drops, wouldn't that allow a trough more in the central/east with mjo staying or tendency to stay in phase 1-2 most of winter, which are colder phases? Perhaps you believe the coldest weather will be west of the southeast US? Thanks in advance.