Prospero

47 minutes ago, TradeWinds said:

Who cares what people think.  I have no respect for anybody seeking attention by having to announce their intention to block somebody.  I have seen plenty of ridiculous posts all over this forum, especially when I lived up north and winter season came along.  The majority of this site lives of fantasy storms.

Back to your post...look at the bright side, you had lots of flood watches this year.  lol. I had some patio repair work back in August and had to clear off my lanai.  I kept things inside for hurricane season and almost put them back this past weekend.  I figured I'd wait another couple weeks just in case.  We should know more by early next week.

Thanks TradeWinds, Florida neighbor.

I've been involved in internet forums since the 90's, alt this and alt that. I've been checked so many times I can't count. But manners are important, and timing is everything. When the discussions are barely active there is room for more personal input, like where to go for Sushi, etc., or occasional far-out ideas. But I do get excited when things are active and have posted inappropriately after a few beers when people are scrambling for their lives as a hurricane is approaching. I am not trying to be on ignore lists, and it hurts my "feeling" (as a good friend used to joke with me), but learning the expectations of any social environment is just part of growing up and belonging to a group. If I am ignored, it is my own fault. Someone making a point of it publicly may or may not be seeking attention, it may be directed totally at me to "behave" which I get. My skin is thick, by experience! When I get to the point of not learning or taking criticism, then I am trouble.

Second part, in Tampa Bay we've been in so many models with powerful storms predicted several days out that we are getting numb. That is foolish, as this is 2020 and only mid-October. We do know we may be preparing for a storm even up to Thanksgiving. But it is weird we have not been in an actual Tropical Storm or Hurricane warning this year. That might even make it more likely we could get slammed at the last minute to fully complete 2020. (Ooooops crazy talk again!)

17 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Another GFS run with a Florida impact.  Looks like the western Caribbean starts spinning up around hour 200 so let's see if Euro catches on or not.

Still hoping west central Florida skips the storms, but it does seem unfair we have not been in any kind of warning in 2020 and that is just embarrassing.

For those who have not added me to their ignore list, Tampa Bay is more in the focus on the 12Z model:

1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said:

I have Prospero on Ignore due to his conspiracy-mongering.

I do try to contribute quality more than raise an eyebrow now and then speaking what is truly on my mind. But hey, Truth (or possible Truth) is and has always been a scary and dangerous concept. We could go back hundreds of years and see examples of "conspiracy theories" being denied that were true and angered people only to learn in history how true they turned out to be. Even the weather modification experiments in the 60s were conspiracy theories until they were acknowledged.

I'll try to be more conservative.

I love this forum and hope I do not get banned altogether. GOL (ghost of leroy) is still here, so maybe I'll be OK even though on an ever growing list of ignores...

Hmmm, 13 days out. Wonder how our toilet paper supply is...

2 hours ago, BombsAway1288 said:

That data get released yet?

That was def the most interestingly positioned site for this storm with the track making a center hit on Creole. Creole is east of Cameron so this station would of been in the northwestern-western side of the eyewall which clearly over performed in this storm with the reported winds in Beaumont/Port Arthur which are even more west of the center and west of Cameron.

Not yet. I just checked again.

Same thing with Laura and I'm not sure how long before it showed up. News reports typically say "100 mph" winds at landfall at Creole with Delta that might be based on reports from those who have the data license to see what Cameron documented. So my guess is a sustained 100 mph wind with gusts maybe 125 or 130. Seems like it should be more and maybe it will be. Cameron finally shared 92 mph hour sustained and 117 mph gust with Laura. Lake Charles Airport was showing 98 mph sustained and 132 mph gust when it went off at 1:53 am on August 27th with Laura. Delta hit the same airport with 59 mph sustained and a gust of 94 mph. Still powerful and lot of power out again. What a nightmare for people around there. I will say the "Frances/Jeanne" double whammy around here was nothing compared to "Laura/Delta". And it still was a long recovery for many.

Glad we on the central Gulf coast of Florida have been so very lucky this year.

On 10/9/2020 at 5:15 PM, mempho said:

Now, can it be done? I have no idea but- given enough time- someone will do it.

Storm hackers. As long as nobody knows they are hacking, they would freely hone their skills under the radar.

I'm debating the task of some serious investigating and internet forensics to see what I could find out. I'm not sure I really want to or not though. However, I love doing that kind of thing and am good at it.

If covert weather modification is going on, it could be screwing up the future of predicting hurricanes. Bad data into any computer program is a problem. An unknown oddball variable into AI could result in false results. That is not good, potentially dangerous.

But what if someone like me discovered that there was indeed a secret program going on? Would the truth being known create a nightmare?

I lean towards scientific integrity, but we live in a crazy world sometimes.

Most likely today nobody is even digging around. It is dismissed by the scientific community for the most part.

"Conspiracy theory."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Delta

...The twenty-sixth tropical cyclone, twenty-fifth named storm, ninth hurricane, and third major hurricane of the very active 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, Delta formed from a tropical wave which was first monitored by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) on October 1. Moving westward, the wave began to quickly organize and due to its imminent threat to land, it was designated Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Six late on October 4. The next day, the system sufficiently organized and was designated as Tropical Depression Twenty-Six, and soon thereafter, Tropical Storm Delta. Extremely rapid intensification ensued throughout October 5 into October 6, with Delta becoming a Category 4 hurricane within 28 hours of attaining tropical storm status; its pressure bottomed out at 954 mb before its winds peaked at 145 mph. The rate of intensification was the fastest in the Atlantic basin since Hurricane Wilma in 2005. After peaking in intensity however, an unexpected slight increase in wind shear greatly disrupted the small core of Delta and the storm quickly weakened before making landfall in Puerto Morelos, Mexico, as a high-end Category 2 hurricane. It weakened some more over land before emerging into the Gulf of Mexico, where it was downgraded to a Category 1 hurricane. After that, it began to restrengthen, regaining Category 3 status late on October 8. It then turned northward and reached a secondary peak intensity of 120 mph and its lowest pressure of 953 mb early on October 9. Delta then began to turn more north-northeastward into an area of cooler waters, higher wind shear, and dry air, causing it to weaken back to Category 2 status. Delta then made landfall at 23:00 UTC near Creole, Louisiana with winds of 100 mph (155 km/h) and a pressure of 970 mb (28.64 inHg). Delta began to weaken more rapidly after landfall, becoming a tropical depression.

This is the one we would like to see. In time it may show up, Laura's winds eventually displayed.

• Cameron
  Special Note: Note that for users without the appropriate data license, contractual obligations prevent live display of wind speeds over 50 mph during tropical storms and hurricanes. Please contact us at [email protected] if you would like additional information.

Anybody have an appropriate data license here?

EDIT:

971 MB at 5:36 PM. At least they give us that.

On 10/9/2020 at 8:28 PM, BombsAway1288 said:

Gonna guess that this will be the highest reported reliable wind measurement we get from Delta. Weakening will only accelerate from here on out.

Unless some late reports come in of course

This one beats it by little:

5 hours ago, hlcater said:

I remember when people, including myself, thought this was gonna rip a hole in space-time in the W Carib. Fun times.

Well the models will have a difficult time with scientific predictions when based on actual meteorological data and precise formulas when a secret man-made influence is peeing on the eye walls. Poor computers, trying their best to make sense of what went wrong. Then they have to reprogram everything they learned not counting for a magical WTF which ultimately makes the models off-base putting many lives in risk.

I know, this post will disappear from this thread quickly.

As a side adventure I may poke around and investigate the covert weather modification idea. The money trail is where to start, dozens of names have been thrown into the mix over the past decade or two. May be some members on this forum who know but cannot speak. Don't be afraid. I'll be cautious what I share until there is something to mention, or will say I have found nothing at all.

217,232 customers without power in LA. That is slightly over 10% of the entire state. Of course some may still be out since August.

Looks like over 200K customers in Texas affected by Delta as well.

Eastern Texas on the LA border is seeing stronger winds than with Laura. I'm sure many are losing power that did not before.

1 minute ago, dan11295 said:

Lake Charles reported a 95 mph wind gust apparently about an hour ago.

The strongest I've seen on SailFlow is 96mph from FCMP T5 (Delta):

Lake Charles Airport so far, about 50 mph less than Laura.

30 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

Im sure they are gathering valuable data for the public and scientists 

Are they in a rental car?

25 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Doubt you get any sustained Hurricane winds reported on land with weakening storm and no stations at landfall point.

Cameron is still up. never went down:

It had a peak gust of 117 on August 27th with Laura.

13 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

sustained TS winds at Galveston last hour. As has been stated before, probably more of a surge threat ultimately, though you will have a lot of power outages, TS/Cat 1 type damage from large wind field. Doubt you get any sustained Hurricane winds reported on land with weakening storm and no stations at landfall point.

I've been watching the SailFlow wind reports and the winds in Galveston (gust 49mph so far) are stronger than Laura was. Beta did kick up a gust of 54.
 

On the Freeport Bouy they had a gust of 60mph this morning. I thought maybe that was the peak this season, then saw that with Hanna it was 154mph. Not sure how I missed that back then.

Freeport Bouy

Delta 10/9/20
Peak gust 60mph

Beta 9/21/20
Peak gust 49mph

Laura 8/26/20
Peak gust 40mph

Hanna 7/25/20
Peak gust 154mph

4 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

I am not sure we should give up on geoengineering and messing with hurricanes just because a mid 20th century program was a failure. 

Might depend on who is in charge...

Scientists? Yea, OK, maybe. Politicians? Nope.

Effectively weakening a deadly storm before landfall? Sure

Preventing a storm from doing its natural purpose over the ocean? Nope.

On radar

Based on what I remember seeing over the past few years, including 2020, we may see a clear eye just before landfall. That is only a wild guess.

41 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Because seeding doesn't work. They thought StormFury was working, then they figured out EWRCs and dry air intrusions were a thing.

StormFury was nearly 40 years ago. They definitely learned a few things about hurricanes and what may or may not work. But given the potential weather modification has on many levels, both good and bad, to me it seems odd that it would just go away. Of course there are seeding projects actively going on world-wide showing some measurable results as far as rain and snow.

So 40 years later since StormFury, I still think about what may be happening under the very tight secrecy of National Security. Maybe nothing at all. But if there is something going on that we are not privy to, all we can see is strange effects that occur. Sudden cold spots in eye wall convection get my attention, yet very well can be unforeseen meteorological events in a storm that have everybody speculating. Gulf hurricanes' eyes have been unpredictable for a few years. So many threads, "I see an eye!" Then, "Nope, fell apart." Repeat...

Not pushing the issue, but it is fascinating to me and there may be a day when we find out it has been going on without our knowledge. (As if that kind of thing never happens.)

It appears this just went offline, but looks to be in the eye:

Edit:

This one has been off a couple hours on the other side of the storm:

Curious:

I posted a comment on the Hurricane Delta forum that was removed earlier this morning. It was a legitimate thought, yet on a subject that appears to be taboo with many professional mets. I've been aware of this since Katrina when I posted a comment on another storm forum and felt like I really struck a nerve. For the life of me I cannot understand the emotions that this concept stirs up with many pros. Maybe somebody can explain?

Myself, I've been passionately watching storms my whole life. I've noticed the past several years, especially in the western Gulf of Mexico that when an eye is forecast to be perfect, weird things happen and the eye keeps losing its structure. Mets toss out theories to explain even when they are surprised. Conditions appeared perfect, then whammy something happens and everyone wonders why. I remember reading the storm forum I was on with both Katrina and Harvey while watching the sats and the eye just never could get going. Granted a few moments here and there, but never what we see on the open ocean or prior to 15 years ago. 2020 has been a year like that.

I've been interested in weather modification starting when I heard about StormFury as a teenager in the 70s. In the late 90's I had a website client who was a professional psychic, Robert Petro. He used to tell me he was part of a secret team paid by the government to use his "powers" to divert hurricanes from populated areas. True? Beats me.

But anyway, I have read about the Texas seeding program that is a fact. Not a conspiracy theory. But when I wonder if a hurricane is being seeded, it is as if I am bringing up a subject that is just simple "NOT" allowed. But why? Is that not a fair question?

In the post removed, I linked to an article that has a timeline for the "HURRICANE MODIFICATION WORKSHOP REPORT" held in 2008 which included NOAA and DHS. A few highlights:

https://climateviewer.com/2013/11/08/hurricane-hacking-the-department-of-homeland-security-enters-the-weather-modification-business/

Quote

 

I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The potential loss of life, physical devastation, economic impact and loss of public confidence posed by a major hurricane could be as detrimental to the United States as any terrorist attack. These threats are significant and the magnitude of the impacts are increasing as a result of continued population shifts to coastal areas and potentially from the resultant changes to the environment. This trend is evidenced by the destruction of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 and Andrew and Iniki at the end of the Twentieth Century. Can we cause change to these horrific events that would reduce their destructive forces? This workshop was the first step in answering that question.

In view of these realities, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) with the organizational assistance of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/Global Systems Division of the Earth Systems Research Laboratory sponsored a workshop on hurricane modification at the David Skaggs Research Center in Boulder, Colorado February 6-7, 2008. This action is consistent with the Homeland Security Act of 2002, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) mission to respond to threats and hazards to the nation and the Science and Technology Directorate (S&T) goal to accelerate delivery of enhanced technological capabilities to meet requirements and fill capability gaps to support DHS agencies in accomplishing their mission.

 

Yes I am aware there is no publicly known project for anyone to seed hurricanes today. I understand that the idea is considered "conspiracy theory" by most, if not all mets. But may I ask, is it 100% impossible that there could be a top secret DHS project to modify storms? I'd get why secret as the public outrage would be huge, especially when something backfires (Katrina, Harvey?)

Why is this topic so taboo?

9 minutes ago, salbers said:

The feature spinning south of Cuba looks interesting - on satellite right now.

Hello Epsilon...

7 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Seems like the east side is struggling to get the really cold cloud tops to stay. Good banding to the north and northwest but definitely lacking east. Delta still looks much better though than it ever has

Oh those crazy Texan cloud seeders at it again...