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Prospero

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    Hurricane Milton Banter

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    Just now, Windspeed said:
    33 minutes ago, Prospero said:
    Will an eye be elusive in this one?

    No, sir. We should eventually see a very clear and symmetrical eye as a major hurricane while favorable conditions allow.

    That will be different for a Gulf storm, until just before landfall. ;)

     

    Major Hurricane Milton

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, andyhb said:

    Yes. Anything south of the bay would mean water gets pulled out to sea from offshore flow on the north side of the eye vs. the bad scenario where it gets piled up by onshore flow in the right front quad.

    If the surge is as high as it was last week with Helene, and with so much debris piled up on street after street, I assume the surge would build up during the approach to a high level sweeping up everything that is mostly small broken pieces of whatever is in those piles. If the eye passes to the south and we get strong offshore winds all of that stuff will be washed out to sea. There could be trash washing up on the beaches for a very long time.

    Major Hurricane Milton

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    17 minutes ago, Hotair said:

    And those just hit need to meticulously document with photos and videos the current state of their homes and roofs  A wind event will likely be fought tooth and nail by the insurance companies who will argue for prior storm surge flood damage.  

    For those with older homes, if 49% destroyed will need to rebuild to modern requirements which for many places means raising the homes up which is extremely expensive.

    • Like 1

    Major Hurricane Milton

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    Helene, she came with a sea-born roar,
    A 6-foot surge upon the shore.
    Gulfport braced, the waters high,
    The tides rose up to kiss the sky.

    Yet rumors tell of Milton’s might,
    With fiercer winds and waves in flight!
    “Twice the surge!” the whispers say,
    As Milton eyes his stormy prey.

    But hear me, friends, though winds may bite,
    Though waves crash loud in darkest night,
    Thy strength, like oak, shall stand unbent—
    For Gulfport’s heart’s not easily spent.

    So huddle close and hold the line,
    The sun shall break, the stars shall shine!
    For storms will pass, as all things must,
    And hope returns, as sure as dust.

    • Like 11

    Major Hurricane Helene

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

    A friend of mine is on a spit of land near Clearwater called Dunedin Beach and he said it’s getting pretty intense.

    They are four stories up in a sturdy building and I’m sure they will be fine but this is when you start questioning if you should have stayed or not. 

    This will be remembered for a long time. I have concern for everybody in a storm surge vulnerable location. I'm at 15 feet in Gulfport and getting a little concerned even this high.

    https://clearwaterbeachcams.com/

    We are in for a very nasty surprise tonight in Pinellas County.

    • Sad 2

    Major Hurricane Helene

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    24 minutes ago, Hoth said:

    Siesta Key beach cam is pretty wild. Water over the whole beach and waves occasionally bumping the lifeguard stations. Glad my grandmother decided to take shelter inland. 

    Low tide was over about a half hour ago and we have along ways to go to high tide after midnight. Already the water level is rising. Here in Gulfport we are used to seeing downtown flooded, but tonight could be the first time it will be too deep for people to wade in and around. It could be over everybody's heads in a few hours.

    I notice the cameras are slow to load and that is because so many people are watching them. But after a moment or so you can see a live stream:

    https://thegabber.com/gulfport-casino-web-cam/

    image.thumb.png.7743863d48c41887a5759eae88f7ae73.png

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 1

    Major Hurricane Helene

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

    The efforts other than surge will be a nuisance mostly for the Tampa St Pete metro. You guys get 50-60mph wind gusts from tropical systems plenty. The biggest concern, by far in places like Gulfport and those areas will be the surge. This evening’s high tide could bring a lot of water in that area. 

    I have no doubts we will be breaking records tonight with the surge. I've been through enough here to recognize the signs. Downtown Gulfport and areas of Tampa Bay will be inundated beyond what we have seen before. Hopefully our cameras will stay up as long as possible. They stayed up in Idalia and Debbie even when water was inside the locations. But the winds were not that strong and electricity and internet stayed on. Tonight both could go down early.

    Our home is at 15ft so we should be OK for this one. There has not been a 15ft storm surge in our area in modern history. But it is always possible...

    Debris is already falling into our yard. Hold on! Woohooo! We gotta storm!

    • Like 6
    • Thanks 1

    Major Hurricane Helene

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    Just now, wthrmn654 said: 
    Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092024
300 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...STORM SURGE AND WINDS INCREASING ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...
...300 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

A Weatherflow station at Egmont Channel at the entrance to Tampa 
Bay recently measured a sustained wind of 50 mph (80 km/h) and a 
gust to 62 mph (100 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 84.8W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

    Its not raining yet in Gulfport, FL but the breeze is quite stiff. It feels really good right now on the skin, but we know we are soon to be having a little white-knuckle ride coming up. I think most accept we will lose power by midnight, so preparing for that inside so everything is easy to get to.

    • Like 4
    • Sad 1

    Major Hurricane Helene

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    29 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

    ... I don't see evidence of a eye.  So no RI  yet.  

    Is this the part of the Gulf of Mexico hurricane story where the eye never gets to form until a couple hours before landfall?

    In the open ocean or Caribbean it would have one of those perfect eyes.

    Major Hurricane Helene

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    22 minutes ago, Hotair said:

    Tampa and neighboring areas have a real strong chance of breaking all-time storm surge records during this storm.  Forecasts are +/- 2 ft 

     

     

    IMG_2360.jpeg

    As a kid I thought Hurricane Agnes gave Tampa Bay a 10 ft storm surge. Photos I have seen are higher than any storms I can remember.

     

    Major Hurricane Helene

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    22 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

    Starting to get the first far flung outer rain bands here and across much of Florida. Speaks to how expansive this thing is already. 

    38077989.gif?0.8156016325069594

    Had our first taste of Helene with TS gusts all around in the area in a small band. I was outside and this storm just feels really "big".

    Egmont Channel at the mouth of Tampa Bay had a gust of 47 mph and 38 mph winds for a moment. We are still a long ways from the center.

    image.thumb.png.534264beda91f54c4f555c3bcb38d281.png

    • Like 4
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