Prospero

2 minutes ago, TradeWinds said:

I moved here from the DMV a decade ago. My advice is please don't panic or panic buy. DMV was the worst in weather situations with clearing shelves from stores. Download a hurricane checklist and use that as a guide. Listen to local authorities. 

I imagine toilet paper will disappear from the shelves by tomorrow night around here...

We lost one oak tree and power for a day when Hurricane Hermine passed by on September 2nd, 2016. A couple outer bands packed a decent punch and it was not even that close to us here.

28 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Definitely Tampa’s first significant threat since Charley

We've been in the bulls-eye within 24-48 hours a few times, Irma being a very real scare.

We will be paying attention to this one for sure.

9 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Anyone know what the longest thread is for an invest prior to becoming a TD?  Gotta think this is getting there.

Not me, but I will say this may be the thread that everyone has been waiting for since last year. Maybe it is the thread with the longest wait time between storms that gets our attention even before a name.

First time this year at a week out, I'm starting a little prep here in Gulfport, Tampa Bay, FL.

We have roofers out next Thursday to do a roof condition report our Home Owners Insurance is demanding. I guess if the roof blows off next week it is covered?

I we can stay east of LA/TX this year, maybe it will break a trend that has become annoying...

Just now, TPAwx said:

Yeah nothing says Fall like a 101 heat index 

But it is a drier heat...

LOL

9 minutes ago, CampergirlFL said:

10 days with no power post Irma. We are prepared but I’d rather not..


.

The novelty wears away quickly soon as all the ice melts and you can't find it within 30 miles or so. Battery operated fans are a blessing. A tank of gas in the cars is good to be able to charge devices. But living without electricity sucks. We are spoiled indeed!

32 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

Completely agree! We have a family reunion planed in your neck of the woods (Riverview) right in the storm timeline. The aftermath of a system is a royal pain but deep down we want to experience it.

As long as you are not all camped on the Alafia River you should be OK. Batteries are always a good thing to have in Florida any time of the year.

It has been pretty awesome lately, blue skies and white clouds, very little haze. Feels like Fall.

10 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

Not a big fan of the last 2 GFS runs. Navarre looks like ground zero! Thankfully it's early in the game and changes should be plentiful.

I'm sorry if I still think of last year too much...

It's likely to hit west of NO close to the Texas border as a Cat3+.

A late September TS is kind of welcome here in TB, FL. A Cat 1 would be a bit over the top. Seriously, being in a solid mid-TS is an experience to remember. Yet, mostly, clean up and cost would not be real extreme. Granted, sometimes even a thunderstorm clean up costs are too much. 70 mph sustained winds turn a "fun" storm into a serious pain in the behind, if not a total nightmare. When trees start toppling and roofs start blowing apart, it's not fun anymore.

Fall Tropical Systems are part of our lives around and we do miss them when they stay away.

3 minutes ago, Tezeta said:

Dude I was just wondering this morning whether you still exist. I hope this storm gives you another paragraph or two of lore. 

Oh I do drop in every day.

If I could change last year's forecast contest numbers to this year:

I think I was the first one eliminated. LOL

This year even my very low prediction last year seems high. What are the numbers so far?

11 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

Reentered the southern gulf at 162, due south of New Orleans

59 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

Eroding TS Eta caused more impact IMBY and for many here than Irma, which set off panic for a week out.  We really don’t want anything of significance to landfall near or a bit N of TB.

TS Debbie with 16 inches of rain and winds enough to bring down a few trees was one for us to remember, among many.

Irma takes the cake at our home with over two weeks without power and two large oak trees coming down among all the other debris. We did experience the strongest winds we have seen since 2006 or so. A few blocks away, they never lost power. That is Florida, and especially Tampa Bay.

After Irma, we do have an all new Duke Energy infrastructure around here. We could even have a blizzard and our power would stay on! LOL

Cat 2 or 3?

All bets are off...

13 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

You called snow "harmless" I am not here to debate whether snow kills more than hurricanes which I do not have an answer for yet. But simply to show that while rooting for snow can be seen as less destructive there still is destruction that happens alongside it. 

Yesterday I thought "whining/banter" was meant for a joke! LOL

Sorry for jumping in and not reading past a few posts.

I moved to Steamboat Springs, CO in the early 1980's. It snows a lot there, like nowhere I have been.

A client, someone I knew by business, the President of the Bank in town, was using a snow shovel from the ground to try to get the snow off his roof. Well, horrible story is he ended up buried in several feet of snow and it was too late when he was pulled out.

Avalanches kill a lot of people every year.

Snow is deadly.

Outside today and tonight in Gullfport, FL (Tampa Bay), it feels like a Gulf system is brewing. I don't know of anything and haven't had time to dig deep. But if it gets a name, what will it do?

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Guessing we keep the shutout going until tomorrow. 

Might as well. We'll all remember August 2022 for years to come.

Looks like some decent rain. Hope it helps.

I bet everybody over there can "feel" the air move over them as a part of a huge thing, even if it is weak.

I so LOVE that feeling, being a tiny tiny speck in a system going round and round. 

Cold fronts are OK, a wave coming through. But tropical systems are special.

The feel was in the air...

Double secret probation home brew TD/TS alert is now in affect.

5 minutes ago, GaWx said:

No, the precursor to Colin was a trough of the SE US coast.

I am possibly back in 2021? Earlier? LOL

Either way an occasional surprise GOM storm during a dead time is fun.

Maybe in the next day or so?

Remember those names!

Since 2003 or so in Tampa Bay,Florida, even when not interested, local weather in the morning have had several wake up surprises right off the coast of the Bay. Go to bed, nothing to think about weather wise. Wake up, a TD is on National news.

Maybe my imagination, but seems like every year. But years go by like weeks when you get older...

Colin is the 2022 one I was thinking about. A typical pop up storm in Gulf? Were any of us way ahead of that one?

EDIT: Wiki says it formed in the Atlantic. So not the GOM. Was it is a TC spin from GOM?

If I am not mistaking, if this manifests it would not be the first no expectation out of nowhere pop on the radar then news worthy GOM storm of the 2022 season?

I went to bed last night with no expectations of even a drop of rain. By the time I woke up this morning after two thunderstorms that had substance, and all day later it is cool, damp, and cloudy with a steady breeze. 100% not expected.

Radar has activity on the Gulf.

How many times here in my years living in Gulfport, Florida when there was zero TS probabilities which are gone within a few hours when the GOM exhales on a hot day. When I woke up this morning, I could feel it. Maybe it will fizzle away, the dust is big around here, but loving being outside with it feeling like mid-September with a TC in the northern GOM.

Something feels like a TC. There is a feel.

Or not...

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And the 2021 freeze, painfully reminded as an overweight 58 year old, no electricity means no CPAP, it isn't just snoring, it impacts my sleep.

I bought my wife and I a pair of CPAP backup batteries. I can't even sleep at night without one.

The ones we bought were recommended here on this forum. No hurricanes since we bought ours, but with typical seasonal thunderstorms, people running into power poles at any time, and winter cold fronts with a wind, we have been VERY happy we have these.

Even in the day if the power goes off for no serious long lasting reason, a nap is sweet to pass the time!.