Prospero

I may be missing a few hours at a time, but has anyone brought up that "I" storms tend to be remembered; Ike, Irma, Ian, and so on?

15 minutes ago, Retrobuc said:

Zone B, right on the border of A.  She is just of the 275 causeway

If she has a place to stay higher up near by, she should be ready to go. If she needs to leave the County, sooner the better as traffic starts to back up and that SUCKS.

Finding a hotel is probably already a challenge.

Possible the tide will be sucked out during the day early tomorrow with some offshore winds creating a false sense of security, but once it wraps around it can be like a tsunami coming in.

Pinellas County evacuation map below. Notice the areas in white not in evacuation zones; near the Gulf coast is some of the "highest" land on our old sand bar.

https://thegabber.com/update-7-idalia-evacuations-in-pinellas-begin/

15 minutes ago, Master of Disaster said:

What's the complex made of and how far is it from the coast? 

In Pinellas County distance from the coast is not what counts, it is the Zone Map. I live five blocks from Boca Ciega Bay, but am about 15ft up in elevation. If we get a surge up to our house, much of Pinellas will be under water, maybe even from the Tampa Bay to the Gulf is some areas way inland.

2 minutes ago, NERMAN said:

Hurricane models held landfall intensity at 12Z from strong Cat 3 to low-end Cat 4 tracking toward Big Bend

Last year on the morning Ian hit Florida Tampa Bay was in the center of the cone. Folks in Sanibel Island and Ft. Myers were relaxing thinking it was going to miss them to the west.

6 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

Airlines are going to be proactively cancelling flights anyway. 

What pilot wants to land in TS strength winds plus turbulence flying through bands?

I'd say TPA closing on the day a storm is predicted to be in the area is reasonable.

23 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

TPA airport closing tomorrow seems a bit premature to me

Workers living in Zone A or B need to prepare which leave the airport understaffed and risky.

Agnes in 1972, I was 11 and this was my second hurricane experience. I remember our favorite seafood restaurant was destroyed on Treasure Island. We had 5ft breaker waves in our driveway in the Pink Streets of St Petersburg after my Mom decided not to evacuate for some small storm. I remember the news calling it a 10ft storm surge.

44 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

Yes Ian evacs were issued for most TB coastal counties on 9/26.  
 

Really surprised Pinellas County hasn’t pulled the trigger yet, lots of folks at high risk even with current track.  MacDill AFB just went mandatory so would expect Hills and Pinellas to follow soon for Zone A.

Oh, it is going to happen soon. I just had lunch on the water at a Marina in South Pinellas County and even though pleasant right now, everybody knows we will not be eating lunch anywhere in the area tomorrow.

Nice sunset right now on Cozumel:

38 mph winds with gusts to 49 at the Yucatan Basin Buoy in the past hour.

2 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Hasn't there been a state of emergency already ordered?

https://www.fox13news.com/weather/tropical-depression-10-sunday-idalia-track-forecast-florida

State of Emergency

Ahead of the storm, Gov. Ron DeSantis on Saturday declared a state of emergency for 33 Florida counties, including the Tampa Bay Area, "out of an abundance of caution."

8 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

TS Eta's endgame track across Cedar Key in Nov 2020 gave us 4 ft along Bayshore.

Downtown Gulfport was impacted as well.

https://thegabber.com/eta-packs-a-punch-in-gulfport/

2 minutes ago, Hotair said:

Storm surge would be disastrous for parts of St Pete and along the Tampa Bay region even if LF ends up being well North of us.   
 

11 ft in the bend would literally bury many communities in water along the armpit

 

This was a 3ft storm surge in Gulfport, FL during TS Debbie:

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Indeed, Hermine was a solid H with 981 mb near landfall in the Big Bend. Beware of inaccurate Tweets. He even shows Hermine landfalling into the upper part of the Big Bend!

 If he means between exclusive instead of between inclusive, then that's different. But between exclusive is just a short portion of the coast at a difficult angle to have a landfall.

I was here in 1972 with Hurricane Agnes and we had a ten foot storm surge even with Agnes some miles out into the Gulf.

Tropical Storm Debbie flooded some businesses in downtown Gulfport, Florida. Here's a night clip of the Gulfport Casino showing where Beach Blvd meets Gulf Blvd during Debbie:

Just now, TheGhostOfJohnBolaris said:

If IMBY posts aren’t allowed I’ll delete, however curious if anyone knows how soon we’ll see watches and warnings? Im new to Tampa and run a business in level 1 evacuation zone that would require a bit of prep to close. Seems like we won’t have much time to prepare.

Sand bags are available now in Pinellas County:

https://thegabber.com/td-10-update-3-pinellas-sandbag-locations/

8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

 

What about Hermine in 2016? We lost an oak tree during an outer band here in Gulfport, Florida in Tampa Bay.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Hermine

I think there have been others as well.

EDIT: "Since 1968, no hurricane has made landfall between Tampa and Florida's big bend. "

I guess the key word here is "between".

20 minutes ago, yoda said:

 

 

That puts us (Tampa Bay) on the surge side. Still, its likely the path will change every day. But they are getting much better last few years.

Here in Tampa Bay we who are experienced are preparing a little. Gulfport Florida has been so lucky for too many years. There is a physical reason why we don't get nailed like the panhandle, but it we are still vulnerable even if not as often as the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Storm mode on:

https://thegabber.com/what-you-need-to-know-about-td-10-in-gulfport-st-pete/

15 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Yeah I mean getting Tampa Bay directly on the south side of a major hurricane is like a needle in a haystack, but if it were to actually happen here, I think a lot of people would brush off the warnings after what happened with Ian less than a year ago. 

I ordered a mix of batteries (D, AA, 9volt, etc.) and a couple basic supplies from Sam's Club when I woke up this morning and they were delivered by mid-afternoon. Sure beats the old days of driving down, parking and hiking across a vast hot parking lot, and being in the aggressive panicking crowds.

But it was not as fun as the old chaos where you could get beat up for grabbing the last pack of D batteries...

It feels like the Fall in Tampa Bay, hot but dry and not so uncomfortable.

Bought half-n-half and two gallons of water today, a couple cans of beans, etc. Two cases of beer in reserve.

I saw people stocking up on toilet paper as I guess it is common knowledge that running out of toilet paper during a raging hurricane is a serious nightmare. We still have our COVID stock-pile of Northern Quilt...but is the expiration date expired?? Oh my!

Happy First Day of Hurricane Season!

Yesterday felt like a Tropical Storm here in Gulfport, Florida.

I've been through dozens of Tropical Storms and a few Hurricanes here in Florida, even into December. This is the first where it is chilly outside with drizzle! Yea, we have some wind, but the warm soupy tropical fuel is missing. I feel like I should wake up to some snow on the ground tomorrow...

7 minutes ago, Clyde said:

The transformer to my house, and only my house, blew about an hour ago. I might possibly have been the first power outage in Seminole County due to Nicole…

Here in Pinellas County, when we see 40 mph gusts, power starts to go out and we hear transformers exploding. At night we see the bright blue flashes. It's life in a Tree City with old trees.

Here in Gulfport FL, Tampa Bay, it is 68 degrees with a strong breeze and gusts into the 30s with cold drizzle at times. It feels like a big storm, but not Tropical. It feels like a Winter storm. A Southeaster?