Prospero

1 minute ago, turtlehurricane said:

It was Shabbos, so I was not able to see any of the updates until now.

The day started with underwhelming weather. NWS said flooding should've began last night, but instead when I awoke it was just cloudy with intermittent wind gusts. Then in the late morning we had 1 passing heavy downpour, and then another heavy downpour around 1 PM.

I was beginning to question if anything was really gonna happen, since so many times this season storms have missed here. 

However, around 4 PM it began to pour, and the rain didn't stop for hours. The winds were some of the strongest we've seen this year as well, easily gusting over 40 MPH.

Once I turned the computer on I see we are under a Tropical Storm Warning, with tropical storm conditions possible even tonight in rainbands, and indeed earlier we already has some Tropical Storm-esque conditions. 

It seems this is a huge storm, and it's already begun, so tons of flooding and wind is coming. Most interesting wild card is it will be over the Florida Straits for about 24 hours, and it's already approaching hurricane strength, so we could easily see some RI especially since a ridge will be building in, which is a highly favorable setup. 

NHC has appropriately issued a Hurricane Watch, since this could surprise everyone and go up to Cat 2-3. 

I'm already looking at the SailFlow maps. Been breezy here all day in Gulfport, Florida. If this develops at all in the Gulf we might be hanging onto our hats, and scrambling to secure our homes.

One thing with this pass of Eta, we have good radar, hundreds of personal weather stations, and a ton of live web cams.

Entire season that started early, obsessed with every storm (as usual), and having taken some steps to prepare for storms I cannot now remember in 2020, we are looking at rain and winds to maybe start tomorrow. Prepared? Hardly. I am deep in a huge tight deadline project where I am learning a new programming language as I go. Perfect. UGH

In the past 18 years in Florida I remember hurricane's Charlie, Frances, Jeane, Hermine, and of course the doozy Irma.

Tropical storms too many to count, but Debbie brought the highest storm surge and over 16 inches of rain that was a disaster in itself.

Eta spinning off our coast for a couple days can outdo Debbie, and if it does become a hurricane most of us around here are totally not prepared.

Wish I was not so busy making a living this week!

1 hour ago, cptcatz said:

So the 18z GFS is coming in... brings Eta into the Gulf, intensifies, stalls, then moves south, eventually making landfall in where else but...... the Yucatan.

Storm roulette!

"Spin the wheel, where she stops, nobody knows!"

Models are beginning to tighten up. Exciting, yet not great news for Florida. Models have been better this year than any year I remember.

My position for our home and Tampa Bay area is always, "Be as strong as possible without power going out, loss of life, and unreasonable cleanup expense."

The most fun model to watch for 2020 is the GFS Para. I hope it ends up someday as the "go to" model.

Anxious for the sats to start to show something pop up.

Quote

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta was
located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 87.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13
km/h), and a turn toward the north is forecast during the next
several hours.  A turn toward the northeast is expected on Friday,
with this motion continuing through Saturday night.  On the forecast
track, the center of Eta will be over the western Caribbean Sea
through Friday, approach the Cayman Islands Saturday and Saturday
night, and be near Cuba on Sunday.

Is it over water yet? Looks like it:

4 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

18z GFS takes Eta right through Southeast Florida. First model run in awhile which has shown a direct hit here. 

Hour 78... looks like a hurricane too. That would be crazy and awesome. 

Wouldn't be surprised if we are watching models in December this year.

If we get a Tropical Storm out of this in Tampa Bay, we might feel like we finally have some immunity for the rest of the season...

But Louisiana doesn't seem to get immune no matter what.

25 minutes ago, stormwatcherJ said:

Wow, this thread has gone silent... everyone watching the election maybe??

I keep coming back, but until it gets back over water I guess nobody is excited. But here in Florida, we are paying attention.

14 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

What just happened to the models?

Bye Bye Eta?

I will be disappointed if we do not host a tropical storm in 2020 here in Tampa Bay. I know that is sick, but this is 2020!!

1 hour ago, Orangeburgwx said:

What did it do

Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk
 

17 minutes ago, dbullsfan said:

Seems like a lot of different routes all leading to impacts on the west coast of Florida, don’t get much action on this coast. 

This year we have not even been in a single warning. That kind of makes it scary for us! 2020 is not over yet!

Big change from not so many hours ago:

11 minutes ago, Crocodile23 said:

I've seen these pictures some days ago on Philippines with typhoon Goni.

 

Doubt we will see anything from here for a while. We have sats to watch.

In time some pictures will show up.

45 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Pretty sure the answer is no, for many reasons. Horrible area to chase, don't even know if foreigners can enter right now etc.

Plus without reliable cellular or internet access, why be there. Videos uploaded days later would not have the views.
From what I can tell there are no weather stations to see.

927 beats Felix.

3 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Remember at the 1 am advisory NHC had Eta as a tropical storm

They've been impressive with the tracks this year. See last Thursday evening:

Just now, A-L-E-K said:

Just cycling thru COD satellite page taking it in

It's a beauty

Funny, when I watch the sat for 200 frames, when it stops I see the swirl go backwards. I don't think that has ever happened, and believe me I have stared at many 200 frame animations in my life.

I'm doing now here what I swore I would not be doing tomorrow night.

1 minute ago, Moderately Unstable said:

(1) Entries are allowed until the aircraft is "in storm": within the storm's circulation. Assuming this radius to be 150mi, at a speed of 240knots, they have around a half hour. 

(2) Should I allow guess updates (yes or no)?  

Why not. It's not over until the fat airplane sings.

Felix was 929mb and 150-knots.

I'll gamble on November 2020 outperforming September 2007 in the same area.

911/160

2 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

you know shits getting weird when you have a 35 keys level storm in November

Oh shit is getting weird all right, not just here.

200 frames