Prospero

Wobbling east.

Yea I know, just a wobble.

I remember some years ago I heard when a storm gets strong enough it starts to decide its own path. Was that an urban legend?

1 minute ago, Will - Rutgers said:

wow.  what're the odds the season's last storm is its most powerful?

unless, of course, the atmosphere intends to keep spawning storms through late fall...

My guess is the odds are that this is not the last storm of the season.

Another jog to the south...

7 minutes ago, sojitodd said:

It looks like the eye is directly east of that island per the post directly preceding yours...and that would put it only about 20 miles north of Puerto Cabezas. It had better not drift further to the southwest or it could go right over them. It will probably be bad enough as it is.

It appears they did evacuate as much as possible based on a Sunday news report:

Quote

As a first step, the naval force and fishing companies are helping to evacuate the indigenous Miskito families living in the Miskito Cays, off the coast of the northern Caribbean, Sinapred director Guillermo González told the official Channel 4.

https://ticotimes.net/2020/11/01/nicaragua-declares-preventive-alert-as-tropical-storm-eta-threatens

The larger of the three islands that Eta is soon to pound is Miskito Cay. It has people living on it.

The official website says this, "The Miskito Cays were strongly affected by the devestating Hurricane Felix. Currently, tourism in this area is hardly possible, as the local community is still recovering."

https://vianica.com/go/specials/24-miskito-cays-nicaragua.html

Scary

Have we ever lost a Hurricane Hunter plane in a storm?

Any bets we are here in December discussing an active 2020 hurricane?

19 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

At any rate, interesting motion.

If this stays out over the water...oh my!

1 minute ago, dan11295 said:

I direct hit on the only population center in the area would be unfortunately, luckily not a whole lot of other population centers in that area. Hopefully most of the fain falls in the swamps.

Hopefully Puerto Cabezas rebuilt stronger after Felix and might be lucky enough to be on the south side of the storm so the wind and surge will not have much impact.

No chasers will be there I am sure. And news will take a while to get to us. So landfall will be all about sats and estimates. Maybe some weather updates, but we may not even see those.

Of course the floods in the mountains and subsequent mud slides are a nightmare always.

2 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

You can stare at this all day but I see the collapse of a nano sized eyewall and the emergence of merely a micro sized eyewall. But maybe that’s just me seeing what I want to see...

Crazy thing is, I could stare at that all day.

Edit; This better though...
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-sandwich-200-0-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Edit: Sandwich animation

3 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said:

This is the best storm presentation this season, I can say that. 

Sandwich info:

 

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/documents/SandwichProduct.pdf

 

Thank you! Interesting!

So the bright red spots are little "cold" spots in the storm. Curious.

This is from the "Sandwich" view. I have no idea what that is.

It is the only view I see that has anything weird in this otherwise perfect storm. Clusters of bright red spots in a dark spiral. What is the meteorological description of this phenomenon?

Just now, eyewall said:

The loss of recon at the key moment is terrible and certainly bad for future research efforts.

Is this not kind of the trend for science this year? Deny facts, discourage data, ignore science?

We'll just learn to live with bigger stronger more unpredictable hurricanes. Why not? Right?

2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

You've gotta be f'ing kidding me.  The recon plane just turned around and is heading back to the US.

"Sorry, you cannot be here now, we are doing super-secret s*** and nobody can know."

Just kidding....

Looks like Puerto Cabezas is the town to take the brunt; pop. about 67,000. Not really a lot on that coast to the north or south. Hurricane Felix hit it is 2007 as a Cat 5 and left 100 dead.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Felix

Definitely do not see any LIVE webcams anywhere on the coast.

2 hours ago, jpeters3 said:

contrary to what you might all think, I'm sure recon missions aren't cancelled to piss off weather weenies.  There is probably a totally legitimate reason for this decision.

Over the Gulf, by especially Texas, I suspected secret seed operations were going on and they were told to go home. Obviously not here...

Wouldn't this be a fun few days to watch and talk about...

Some of the wildest footage I've seen in some time out of this. Combination of a daylight landfall and a storm that was strong but not so strong that all you saw was a wall of white.

@CheeselandSkies post

Yes indeed, and a good recap on the situation while it was still not over.

One line from a local that is repeating in my head, "When is it going to end?"

4 hours ago, Boston Bulldog said:

No, Invests start at 90L and go to 99L. The list is then reset back to 90L after 99

I kept thinking everything was a 90 something. Was I losing my mind? Getting so old everything is so close to 100?

1 hour ago, cptcatz said:

And once again a 18z GFS run decimates south Florida, has a hurricane sitting over it for three straight days.  Maybe this one will be it? Will south Florida escape this season?

To be honest, I'd feel better if we do get a very late yet respectable storm this season to complete the map where every mile of the eastern US was in a cone at some point. If we on the central west coast of Florida by freak luck skipped this year, I'll be on edge next year!!

Maybe a naive question, but we are on 96L. Does that mean this season stared with 1L?

8 year Sandy NJ landfall anniversary today?

8 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

18Z GFS ...another Gulf Hurricane out in fantasyland time.   What do we do when we run out of the Greek alphabet?

Next year I will keep a journal of every time Tampa Bay was in a future model. I lost count this year very long ago. I have even lost count in the past week.

4 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

18Z GFS ...another Gulf Hurricane out in fantasyland time.   What do we do when we run out of the Greek alphabet?

Upper case:

Hurricane !

Hurricane @

Hurricane #

So on...