Prospero

Looks like LA Offshore Oil Port just went offline. I think most in the area have dropped in last 30 minutes or so.

36.1 ft wave height. Whew, wonder how that will translate with any storm surge.

36 minutes ago, PSLwx said:

Has Atlanta ever been under a Tropical Storm Watch before?

I think Irma was the first Tropical Storm Warning.

Edit: "Breaking News: Hundreds of Storm Chasers descend on Atlanta to film Tropical Storm Zeta approach Atlanta!"

Party!!!

Cancun with 60 mph winds and a 71 mph gust (84/106 with Delta). That is enough to cause problems in Florida for sure.

Sitting here in Gulfport, Florida right now we are enjoying a very warm (frog strangler) strong thunderstorm that came in from the south in very late October. Usually this time of year it is dry as a bone and the only rain we might be lucky to get is from cold fronts that come through from the north. It has been muggy as heck this week, even taking showers outside to cool off as it has been so hot.

Not a typical year at all, but it IS 2020...

What will the next few weeks bring??

54 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

56 minutes ago, Prospero said:

Where can I find a path history to see any zigs and zags. My storm follower amateur eyes have thought I've seen some, but so far do not have path history in my small bucket of visual tools to look at.

Just going on the elongated minimal pressure obs from recon and their veer to the center point of that CDO feature. At any rate, it's looking like Zeta is going to run out of ocean surface before it can go bonkers, which is a good thing.

Landfall south of Delta and a lot weaker, which means more time over the Yucatan before moving back over warm waters?

(May not be adding anything to a met discussion, but there are a lot of us who check out this forum and love the technical met secret codes who are here for the sake of being with like minds.)

TS conditions in Cancun, but hopefully not too  much more. Still a storm to watch for we who are totally obsessed...

29 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Almost looks as if there has been another vortex realignment.

Where can I find a path history to see any zigs and zags. My storm follower amateur eyes have thought I've seen some, but so far do not have path history in my small bucket of visual tools to look at.

Quote

000
WTNT33 KNHC 262041
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Zeta Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL282020
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

...ZETA EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND A DANGEROUS STORM 
SURGE TO PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF 
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 86.0W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES
...
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Zeta was located
near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 86.0 West.  Zeta is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A northwestward motion
with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next day or
so, followed by a turn toward the north Tuesday night. A faster
northward to north-northeastward motion is forecast on Wednesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move over the northern
Yucatan Peninsula later today or tonight, move over the southern
Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and approach the northern Gulf Coast in 
the watch area on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Some additional strengthening is possible before Zeta makes
landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula.  Some weakening is likely while
Zeta moves over the Yucatan Peninsula late tonight and early
Tuesday.  Zeta is forecast to strengthen again when it moves over
the southern Gulf of Mexico later on Tuesday and be at or near 
hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on 
Wednesday. 

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).

1 hour ago, Cheeznado said:

Big question is how much strength it loses as it will spend a fair amount over the Yucatan, both the HWRF and HMON have it back down to a TS and never really bring it back to a hurricane.

Delta passed over quickly. If it's eye and structure held together the end game would have been much worse. Granted almost a month ago, the Gulf has cooled a bit.

Some nice patterns coming from the center of the convection:

No radar, but we do have a few anemometers to watch.

Kind of makes me want to fly into Cancun and rent a car to drive around in the approaching storm...

13 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

And just like that, there goes strong convection up right over the low-level vortex. Might be a legitimate go from here on out to Yucatan landfall.

Too bad no radar to see...

20 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

NHC quote

---
With the recent improvement in the outflow over Zeta, it appears 
that the shear that had prevented strengthening has abated.  The 
shear ahead of the storm is expected to remain low while the cyclone 
traverses the deep, warm water of the northwestern Caribbean Sea. 
As a result, Zeta is forecast to become a hurricane this morning, 
and continued strengthening is likely until Zeta moves over the 
Yucatan peninsula this evening.

---

Since that bullish update, Zeta has become decoupled.  The naked surface vortex has moved out from under the convection.

So the actual center of Zeta is where the green arrow points, not the yellow arrow?

4 hours ago, TradeWinds said:

@Prospero for you to frame. 

It is certainly not the first time Tampa Bay has been in a long-rage future model this year. In fact, I've lost count how many times.

I suspect if this develops it will land in western LA.

Still something to watch. It's been a warm muggy day here today. October has been very warm this year.

5 hours ago, MJO812 said:

988 landfall on the GFS 

The GFS parallel has it at 970 in the same spot.

46 minutes ago, TradeWinds said:

Quite interesting to see a storm projected to move northwest this time of year in the Gulf. 

Yea, not too long ago on this forum that was considered over. But this is 2020.

Things do shift quicker in the Fall, might land more East...whatever it is when it lands.

Seriously? Not that we are jealous this year in the Tampa Bay area, but hey come on...

We always need the rain this time of year and it is typically late season TS rain that gives us the break to not be dry as a bone entering the winter. If we don't get some some strong winds we are setting up for a big problem next year, or the next, when the winds do blow.

Like the wildfires out west where a few years with no fires sets up for a bad year. That does happen in Florida as well, especially up I-75 and I-4.

I do not think Alabama is lacking rain this year...

3 hours ago, TradeWinds said:

Central and Southern Florida new tourism ads should say tired of hurricanes...visit us! 

"Watch Gulf of Mexico hurricanes safely from your beachfront balconies in luxury vacation condos from Clearwater Beach to Sanibel Island!"

Not far from the truth this year...

Not holding my breath, but maybe am still holding my breath clinging onto something vague that may or may not happen.

Sitting outside tonight feels like Fall here in the Tampa Bay area, but really by now we usually have a strong arctic front come through that chills us down for the year. Not yet.

Sad to see 2020 season close, being such a storm voyeur, but very happy we have been spared. But maybe a yet to be Tropical Storm with some respectable winds, significant late season rain, and mild noticeable storm surge around here just to be a part of this 2020 season? I'm OK with that.

5 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

This year underachieved. That’s what I hate about it. It could have been so much better. 

It could have been better for Louisiana, but could have been worse for west central Florida.
It's not Thanksgiving yet, so still not 100% confident. But it is looking like we were spared another year so far.

But, this is the year 2020...

5 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

This is accurate 

Might be one of the most interesting years I remember. Started early, almost always a storm to follow, plenty of potential Cat 5s, a stream of hype and disappointment, yet entertaining and still something to watch even tonight.

Some years are total duds.

Still some warm water...

8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Gorgeous eye.
 

 

Love it when Mother Nature is free to do her thing. Hurricanes are so important to life on Earth.

1 hour ago, Newman said:

Haven't seen an eye this pretty since Dorian last year

Wow, even in 2020. Hurricanes can still enjoy an eye. Sure is pretty.

2020 just keeps on going...

31 minutes ago, TradeWinds said:

There will be so many flip flops from Yucatan hits to out to sea to nothing at all, which very well may be the end result. But we watch. The FL peninsula as a whole has been spared. We had an inland tropical storm warning in Orlando with Isais but our highest gust may have been 25 mph. 

We've had TS winds at moments and gusts several times here at 50+ mph with some of the storms, a few mild storm surges, and beautiful roller waves several times from several Gulf storms. We were in five-day cones a few times, but never a warning.

18z GFS has the latest storm going over Cuba and out to sea. But each day brings new models.

Funny how the models always have perfect eyes. That is the problem with the models, the computers don't know how to throw a fly into the mix. Especially in 2020 with perfect eyes being so rare with random flies always messing them up.