NorthHillsWx

I can’t wait to do a post mortem on why this winter failed. I think at this point, unless a freak 6” + event occurs, this whole winter will go down as a major failure given the expectations, analogs, and forecasts. Almost no cold stretches and zero threats to track during a strong nino is tough to stomach. A 1” snow or a ice event will not remove the stench from this season

Thanks! That March 6-7 2014 event was the one I was referring to. Areas south of Greensboro looked like a bomb went off in places, very bad tree damage. If I recall that event occurred overnight which mitigated the sun angle issues for ice accrual

18z, 0z, 6z… the coffin is nailed shut. Better luck next year, folks

The bottom of the cliff is accepting free memberships. This is a limited time offer and will extended through every winter until 2075, or until you move to a location where it can still snow

Literally says “what pattern change?”

https://www.facebook.com/share/a8RRaMixT1S6MipA/?mibextid=WC7FNe

Euro op looks suppressed with the storm, but the setup would be favorable for a CAD event if precip trended further north.

March 6-7 2014 was really bad near and south of Greensboro. I was on storm duty for the power company doing damage assessment and that area around 85 was torn up

Folks in Raleigh would literally bury themselves under the cliff with a 4’ thick lead barrier above so they could never come back up and hope again

I’d take that storm here. Would probably be enough to cover the pavement assuming sun angle wasn’t too much

At least we’re not torching during this torch. Low of 28 again this morning. In a fairly significant win for radiational cooling, the farm in Franklin county dropped to 20.7 this morning which isn’t terribly far off the “arctic blast” numbers from January. Clouds in the triangle must not have made it there as the Franklin county airport also recorded a low of 23

Tic toc. Tic toc…

Low of 28 this morning

We also lost the NAO that run. Just a totally different map

If anyone’s wondering how we fail to this level with the PD storm, thank that strong GL low preceding the system that nukes thermals all the way to Maine

The 18z gfs might be final nail in coffin

This GFS run is an utter disaster for everyone on the east coast, and in fact turns the PD storm into a severe threat with 70’s here

I think the posting will improve when something tangible exists to track. It’s the same crap over on southernwx just a lot are hyping this pattern but beyond that all you need is Georgia’s posts to know what’s coming from a pattern perspective. There aren’t many on any page who are that good at deciphering what teleconnections and analogs could mean for sensible weather, but there are a ton who can reasonably interpret model data and twitter posts from Mets enough to speak intelligently on here. If something pops up I expect that to happen. And no, I’m not hyping this pattern until I see ensemble support bc I believe teleconnections and analogs are useful, but for snow we need to actually see it eventually and hone in on a storm. The PD storm screams MA. We do not have a foundational high established beforehand and temps crashing east of mountains with enough precipitation remaining for accumulation after a system passes is a pipe dream 99.9% of the time

This is the last “childish post” I’ll make but I’ll explain what’s happened and why the forum has devolved: 1) Obvious- it hasn’t snowed in 2+ years 2) Since January 20, there hasn’t been a single thing to track, not even cold or a rainstorm. It’s been completely dead to the point the only thing worth talking about has been weeklies and teleconnections (outside range of ops and ensembles) 3) When/if a threat materializes, I expect this board to move back to a sense on normalcy. Talking 25+ day pattern changes is best left to a select few posters and other than their insight, yea there just hasn’t been a dang thing to talk about. Now I’ll retreat back to my hole in the sanitarium, it’s not going to snow, I’ve accepted it, onto severe season, see yall next year!

I wont believe it’s going to snow again until I look out my window and my grass is covered

You cannot sugarcoat the lack of ensemble support for snow with the PD storm. There’s definitely a storm signal but I still believe this is the mid Atlantic’s storm. SW Virginia in the game too. We’ll see but as others have said, lots of energy flying around. I’m skeptical still given recency bias and lack of ensemble support Mountains/foothills/virginia I believe are firmly in the game

^^^ this

Happy hour wasn’t happy at all!!! Rain or suppression, take your pick!

I don’t even remember a CAD rainy day in the 30’s this entire winter

Ughhhhh take me back