NorthHillsWx

Bathtub water in all the places where it’s most dangerous

Looks like, in addition to being brutally hot, models have dried out significantly this week, decreasing our chances at any afternoon relief. Yesterday and today have been unbearably hot, the type of heat that you just can’t be outside in.

Invest 99L has my attention. Decent mid level rotation and not ridiculous amounts of shear. If it can overcome some dry air, especially to its north, and a relatively stable atmosphere, it may be our first shot at a MDR storm as it heads generally towards the windward islands. Has held its own despite unfavorable conditions thus far

Pretty funny to be in a flash flood/severe thunderstorm warning and not get a drop of rain

Picked up a whopping 0.08” after about 3 hours of rain

I’d be surprised if that just grazed you in Clayton! Looks like a nice storm

Picked up 0.10” from early morning showers

0.00" yesterday. "Storm" total of 0.12" after 3 days of rain chances of at least 50%. In good news, finally broke the rainless streak at my farm in franklin county. Picked up first rain since second week in June 0.25." Here comes the big dry (and heat)!

1.72” for the month but just 0.12” from this previously wet forecast period (last 3 days). Feel lucky to have gotten one big storm starting to look hot and dry after Monday. Perhaps entering into an extended dry (and hot) period dominated by our friend the SE ridge.

Missed all the afternoon activity. 0.00”

3 “showers” have amounted to no measurable rain so far. Looks like some development East of here hoping it rotates in without falling apart

Looks rather dry from triangle north and west today/tomorrow. Not sure everyone will even see rain. During this “wet” period

0.12’’ this afternoon pretty sure other side of the neighborhood had half an inch. Could hear and see it pouring there for 10 minutes before we got a drop! Was actually pretty cool to watch unfold on radar and in person

Currently a sultry 84 out. Hoping for rain the next few days.

Got a localized drought going on at my farm in Franklin county SW of Louisburg. Last measurable rain was on June 14th. Beans and tobacco have about 1/3 the normal growth this time of year and it is a legitimate dust bowl when driving down the dirt road. Crazy how some areas just seem to miss every storm in these summer patterns. Praying for rain but I worry our crops have already failed as we do not have irrigation and the current sad state has their growth potential limited.

Well the low pressure system currently drifting through the southeast has trended further east across most models and now appears to be heading for the SC coast. Also, models are now showing a lot more convection at the coast which would decrease the moisture transport into the central part of the state. This means rain chances/amounts have come down significantly for the NC piedmont. Unfortunately, this was a very good shot at a widespread rain in July, something we could use. Where this was looking like a very likely shot at 2-4" amounts it's now looking more like 0.25-0.5" with some areas of enhanced rainfall (and I think some areas may see less especially NW). I am undercutting NWS discussion totals from this morning they seem to discount the CAMs but I see the same trends in the globals as well. While I do expect most places to see rain the next few days, it looks like it's going to be on the light side. Subsidence and heavier moisture-robbing storms on the coast will keep this from being the type of widespread rain we've seen in SC today.

Heavy storm earlier this afternoon. Picked up 1.32” in short order

Got the edge of a very strong summer storm last evening. Picked up 0.28” but much more just to my East. Extremely loud storm with a ton of nearby lightning strikes. Most rain in weeks my yard desperately needed it!

Weather report: hot and humid Will probably just repeat that for the next month

Let us know what real snowstorms are like. Congrats on getting on the good side of 85 by a lot!

19/9/4 I think the Gulf will be most likely to take a major hit (maybe multiple major hits). I think homegrown systems (similar to the 2 we've already seen) will be common.

Another day, another heavy rain event for the western piedmont.

With those years, how many had 2 purely tropical named systems (not sub-tropical storms as we frequently see in early season) before Hurricane season?

NAM nailed this. We have Bertha

Just named Bertha