NorthHillsWx

CMC solution of multiple TC’s in GOM at same time is quite interesting. No reason to focus on model to model runs though. Signal is there for tropical cyclone genesis and very little to no chance of recurvature with that massive blocking ridge in place. As said above, could get interesting this week.

Based on satellite and radar, I believe we have another storm off the east coast... Here in Nags Head for the week and you wouldn’t know it. Very little swell, few rain bands moving through.

Love people declaring the season a bust when we’ve already had over $5 billion in US damages alone, record breaking 10th named storm by August 13, more than a week ahead of 2005, and seen storms popping in even unfavorable conditions. Wait till the Atlantic gets right here in a couple weeks...

Small low pressure formed just off the N.C. coast south of cape lookout this morning. If this had more time I’d bet we’d have a quick TS spinup again. Accompanied by 30-35 mph wind reports.

They’ve been atrocious with storms this year. But, they do not get into the meat of the favorable period as advertised by the above posts even in their longest range.

I thought y'all would see hurricane force gusts the way this was intensifying coming ashore. Glad it wasn't as bad as it could have been!

Picked up 3.20" imby. No sign of any wind coming through and central NC gusts I've seen were less than impressive, highest I've seen was 47mph in Goldsboro. Higher Wind gusts from this storm seem to have been extremely spotty and mostly relegated to the coast. Some scary pictures of tornado damage coming in. Just saw the Bertie county tornado damage on WRAL

Pouring rain. We’re around 1.25” so far. No wind yet. Going to bed, stay safe everyone

Track has shifted ever so slightly East again. Also now explicitly forecasting a hurricane at landfall. The East shift may spare the immediate triangle area the worst of the damaging gusts. I think 50-60 mph would be high end with this track but likely 45-50 mph. Places further east say Goldsboro/Wilson could see gusts to 70. This could be a very disruptive system for central N.C.

The threat for a fairly significant inland impact with this system is increasing in central North Carolina. The entry region of the jet streak combined with the track of the system is set up well to expand impacts on the western side of the storm. This may also lead to a period of intensification on approach to landfall. HWRF and ukie cannot be completely ignored. Tropical storm watch was just issued for wake county and this setup really reminds me in a lot of ways of the Matthew setup but the storm track is inland this time. I would expect some areas in central N.C. see gusty winds up to 50 mph which, combined with 2-4 in of rain may be enough for power outages. At a minimum this will saturate the eastern half of the state which has missed out on most of the recent rain and could set the table for more impactful rain events as we move into the meat of an active hurricane season. Long story short, I am anticipating an enhanced impact in central NC than we would usually expect for a system of this intensity

Our wet period advertised all week has fizzled to 20-40% chances on NWS as most of the energy impulses look to stay in Virginia. Funny how all these advertised big rain events have quite literally dried up and we get our most widespread rain event of the summer with a modest 30% rain chance the other day... A humid 81 at the moment praying for some clouds this afternoon otherwise we will be roasting in this humidity

Yep going to get the boat off the lift in Morehead. Don’t expect anything crazy though

Wonderful: It`s looking increasingly likely central NC will remain under the stronger influence of subtropical ridging, which will keep the majority of upper impulses north and west of the area. So what look like a fairly wet and active a few days ago, is now looking more like a typical summer day, with the Piedmont trough and strong daytime heating providing the focus for isolated to scattered convection. Cannot rule an isolated severe storm, mainly near the VA border where models show a band of enhanced shear of 25 kts. One negative aspect of the lower rain chances, is that it will be hotter, with afternoon highs back in the lower to mid 90s and heat indices back in the 102 to 105 across the central Piedmont, Sandhills and coastal plain counties. Lows in the lower to mid 70s.

NAM doing NAM things this run, lol

High of 89 today and picked up a measly 0.01” though I’m not terribly upset after getting dumped on yesterday. Had storms literally collapse at my doorstep and reform on the belt line. So goes the best with the outflow pulse storms

Zombie storm

Excuse the commentary haha but here’s the first part of yesterday’s storm from my house

Very impressive convective day yesterday and it continued through the night as you mentioned. We had thunder from 3pm to when I woke up at 3am. Storms consistently were developing in what appeared to be rain cooled air and end up training. We got nearly 2” of rain but I believe places just to the north of my may have gotten double that. Also, some very strong storms two. We had the VERY rare (first time in my life) occurrence of multiple hail events in the same day. First storm hit about 3:30-4 and it produced up to some size hail then again around 6:00 another cell blew up and we got pea sized hail. All the while it never stopped raining and dropped into the seemingly stable 70’s

Very impressive heat for being so close to the water but I guess they maximize heat out of a southerly flow if no sea breeze is able to develop

Whatever becomes of 92L, the weaker the system stays the further west it'll be able to go. Even if this maxes out as a weak TS, it may make its way into the Gulf before turning north. Canadian model shows this the best and would give central NC a widespread rain event. That seems to be the greatest potential impact from this system. Just too much shear and land in it's way not to mention the fact it still has not consolidated. I cannot see a path to a strong system at this point. It's also moving and forecast to remain moving extremely quick, which can make it tough to organize substantially given the initial organization, or lack there of

Picked up an additional 0.28” overnight for a 24-hr total of 1.90”

Big, Big storms this afternoon. May finally jackpot on rainfall. Been pouring for 2.5 hours. Also had pea-dime sized hail and some gusty winds I'd say were in the neighborhood of 50mph with the initial storm. Some great CTG lighting as well and it's been thundering since 3 pm. Great storm day, finally! Well over 1 inch, will check when the downpour ends but coming down hard still. EDIT storms have moved on but not before dumping 1.62” of much needed rain. Bout to go take a walk and check out the roaring creek down the hill

Getting close to finishing July with under an inch of rain at the farm in Franklin County. 0.94." Beans are exceptionally dry. Western half of the farm, away from rain gauge, got a heavy storm over the weekend while eastern half was dry. Comparatively better at the house in Wake county but still a very dry month. Issue with relying on pop up showers all month with minimal forcing for rainfall. Maybe the next few days can help on that front

System has really faded on modelling, has more dry air to contend with that we thought earlier, and now looks to be shear-plagued until it gets to about the area of the Bahamas. Also may have limitations due to land impacts if something can even get going. The ceiling is much lower for this system than what it looked yesterday. Very similar setup that led to the demise of Gonzalo. Only thing I'll say though is these two back to back systems are priming the atmosphere somewhat. Next system coming off the coast seems to have a more moist environment ahead of it. In the MDR region, it seems it takes a wave train sometimes before a system can break through, especially early in the season. I believe these systems are doing just that.

Very impressive system for its location. I did not expect the storm to remain this intact through the cooler waters. Luckily it looks like the core will remain offshore sparing Hawaii from major impacts. Awesome to watch storms on radar though