NorthHillsWx
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Everything posted by NorthHillsWx
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A lot if lightning near the center this morning. Elsa is clearly being hampered by the wind shear, and the center is partially exposed to the west of the convection. However, as it continues to pull away from cuba, and the shear vector aligns more with the forward motion, while traversing some hot water, I could see a small uptick in intensity. Likely would occur as the system moves north then north-northeast
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RAH going with a wide swath of 1-3” from the western triangle eastward in NC
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Qualifies as tightly clustered guidance
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Remember when watching radar tonight, the MLC and SLC were NOT aligned when the storm made landfall. I think what a lot of folks are seeing as the surface low is actually the mid level rotation, noted in just about every reconnaissance flight leading to landfall
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Verbatim this would be a fairly impactful storm for the Tampa bay metro area given the angle of approach, long fetch, and remaining in the strongest bands on the eastern side of the system for a long time. I could see some decent surge values and extended period of 50-70 mph gusts in this scenario, certainly nothing to scoff at for a major metro area
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I’d be shocked if the triangle missed out on rain from this system given the track and angle of approach with an approaching trough that usually pulls moisture a bit north as the system interacts with it. Models have really not shown that but from experience that usually happens with tropical systems hitting the gulf coast and moving through our area, and the rain shield almost always ends up further north and west than forecast due to that interaction
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WPC not enthralled with the western tracks
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True, but it looks like Elsa is going to be really the only widespread source of rain through the forecast period. Subsidence on the backside of the system will limit what the trough moving through (feature kicking the system out) can produce. Beyond Elsa, models have been showing very few features that would promote anything other than isolated storms. So if Elsa doesn’t pan out for some areas, it’s looking like a dry stretch for those places
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It is down, just such an abnormally high pressure for a 50 kt storm. Has been higher than you’d expect the entire life of the system even when it was a hurricane.
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Grade A+ forecast on this one, even with gigantic model disagreement for days
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“Down to 1005 mb” sounds like a typo
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If the remnants of Elsa miss us to the east this will not come true
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Elsa’s moment has come and gone. Going to take too much time given the poor convective envelope to organize and increase the intensity. It does seem to have become a much larger circulation so I bet it maintains through Cuba. Mid grade tropical storm for Florida
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The development of an inflow channel on the south side of the system is a good sign of continued organization. Still a long way to go but this is the look of another intensifying phase
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It does appear to have a nice burst of convection over the center, and maybe slightly less of the popcorn look. Let’s see if can maintain and we see corresponding pressure falls and contraction of the wind field. I’m still surprised to see a pressure above 1005 mb, meaning this thing has a lot of work to do and not much time to do it
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Just off the northeastern coast of Jamaica
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Shewww, that’s a disorganized system per recon. High pressure, and all significant wind located far away in eastern semicircle. Was not really expecting that, in fact I was wondering if their wind sensors were malfunctioning. Not sure exactly what is inhibiting Elsa this morning but it may open into a trough after landfall in Cubs if it can’t get it’s act together before then. That’s a storm on life support, despite what looked like a better sat presentation
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Recon didn’t find anything over 50 kts flight level winds on first pass but it was not in the northeastern quad. Definitely extremely weak in the western and southern part of the circulation. If this thing hits land in this state I’d expect it to open up rather quickly
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I’m sure the folks in Barbados were caught a little off guard with how strong Elsa was when passing the island. Getting sustained hurricane force winds actually measured on land rarely happens even with some stronger land falling canes, not to mention several gusts over 85. No doubt a good blow down there
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I know Elsa is struggling and likely to continue to do so while dealing with shear, forward speed, and land issues, but most models do show some impact for the Carolinas. At a minimum it looks like some good rains for the area, but some models like the Canadian actually reform the center east of Florida and bring a strengthening tropical system ashore in the Carolinas. Something to watch at least
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As expected, recon is finding a much weaker storm and higher pressure
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Faded while moving over me. Only picked up an additional 0.13” for a storm and July total of 1.31”
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Is this the same storm we were watching yesterday? Similar appearance to Isaias last season east of Florida when it completely collapsed for a period. Models have really trended weaker too and maximized land interaction. Me thinks this storm will be a mid grade TS as most when it impacts Florida
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Mid level shear/rapid forward progress is winning. All of the strides Elsa made earlier in the day at forming an inner core has been erased
