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NorthHillsWx

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Everything posted by NorthHillsWx

  1. NorthHillsWx
    GFS/ICON/CMC/RGEM all show a significant winter storm for central NC. EURO has it too but it’s a little further east. NAM/HRRR/ and a selection of CAMs have nothing.
  2. NorthHillsWx
    We’re inside 24 hours now and there is a suite of models thar gives me anywhere between 4-8 inches of snow and another suite that doesn’t have anything. No in between. At this stage I have no idea what to trust. This is that rare setup where you’re going to have to have to go against a significant amount of modeling either way you forecast this storm inside 24 hours. One of these scenarios will be right and one will be completely wrong and we still don’t know which to roll with inside 24 hours, amazing
  3. NorthHillsWx
    Pretty Euro run. The fact most of this board has jumped off the cliff due to the NAM (which went from a major storm to no storm in 2 runs) while the Euro has been relatively stable shows how much pain central NC folks have endured the last 4 years
  4. NorthHillsWx
    I think models will come back some overnight. 9 times out of 10 in the SE the NW precip shield is under modeled. It usually benefits our posters in SW VA so we (triangle) rarely see it. I like a 1-3” event across most of central NC falling into the mid 20’s. BRING IT! I think there is still some potential for more but this looks to be lessening. A 1-3” snow where everything sticks is a great storm
  5. NorthHillsWx
    Yea- that would be pure powder too
  6. NorthHillsWx
    Looks like they bit on the “no storm” idea if Friday morning is the timeframe. That would be the precip from the front
  7. NorthHillsWx
    Probably be partly cloudy Friday afternoon now! We can’t even get a sleet storm in Raleigh! Only cold rain and ice
  8. NorthHillsWx
    May have to delete this thread since there literally may not be a storm. Don’t want to remember this one. Good lord! I get this was/is a complex setup but to go from this morning’s runs to now inside 36 hours is insane!!!
  9. NorthHillsWx
    NAM says “no storm for you, no storm for you either” blanks the whole area with literally no storm hahaha
  10. NorthHillsWx
    It literally develops a lp from the front Friday morning then nothing afterwards. There is no storm. Just mood flakes in Raleigh and light accumulation east of there
  11. NorthHillsWx
    Don’t look at the NAM of you wanted warm and fuzzy feelings to start 18z
  12. NorthHillsWx
    He’s got an enjoyable website and social media pages, I’ll give him that. I enjoy the rare Richmond perspective too
  13. NorthHillsWx
    I reserve the right to be suspicious about that frontal passage snow as shown haha
  14. NorthHillsWx
    18z NAM a little slower and beefier with QPF from the fropa
  15. NorthHillsWx
    New Bern may actually be in a great spot. I feel like you are sneaky good at catching snows that way. Been several “last second” snows there that showed up in this range
  16. NorthHillsWx
    For once I’d like to know what a positive trend inside 48 hours feels like
  17. NorthHillsWx
    I do have to say that I am truly shocked and stunned as a professional meteorologist to see such a violent shift in the weather models from 11pm/12am Tuesday night Wednesday morning to the data this morning and at midday. I have been doing this for more than 25 years and I have to tell you that this shift is dramatic and quite sudden.
  18. NorthHillsWx
    Tell me, what does the sanitarium trending “hot” after the 12z model runs mean?
  19. NorthHillsWx
    Let me be clear- these are not imby posts. This has shifted from Blacksburg Virginia to oriental NC in 24 hours. You’re talking hundreds of miles and also even in the heaviest areas just a fraction of the QPF outputs from yesterday. This is not saying trends aren’t good for some on the board. Down east folks looking good for sure
  20. NorthHillsWx
    I guess everyone is banking on more expansive precip shield. Interesting
  21. NorthHillsWx
    Burrel literally pumped it into reality
  22. NorthHillsWx
    Just remember guys, fabulous February will save us
  23. NorthHillsWx
    It really may never snow appreciably in Raleigh again. I just don’t know what it will take. Striking out last weekend hurt but was tolerable bc we had the rug pulled out on like day 4-5 but to have the rug pulled out at 36 hours is stupid bad. Going back your really have to go back a long time to find a good snow here. December 2018 was a hefty event but it almost all fell late at night and has changed to plain rain by mid morning which took a lot of luster from it
  24. NorthHillsWx
    This is one of the worst modeled events in a long time. To see such drastic shifts inside 48 hours is for sure not the norm.
  25. NorthHillsWx
    So ATL ended their snowless streak?
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