NorthHillsWx

Agreed. I’d think this warrants an upgrade, especially with increasing organization at this time. Not sure if NHC will bite or wait for next flight to confirm. This by all means is on the cusp

0.09” overnight and this morning for a mtd total of 3.82”. Currently overcast and a humid 76.6 out

Surprised no one is talking about the tornado outbreak going on. Multiple confirmed tornadoes including two PDS warnings, one of which is ongoing west of Columbia

Oh how I wish we had recon in Henri atm…

Land interactions have certainly not been kind to Grace. But things can change pretty fast if a core does get established. Obviously the thermodynamic potential is out the roof tomorrow if it can get going. Yep. Guidance is quite split on this one too, especially before it gets to the Yucatán. About half the guidance forecasts a slow strengthening pattern to continue, I’m assuming due to lack of a cohesive core, while the other half makes grace a hurricane at a more rapid pace. Really tough forecast, I think NHC is playing it correctly forecasting grace to be on the cusp of hurricane strength at landfall. If the system had a more well defined core this would be a strengthening hurricane. Relatively low shear, extremely moist envelop, and due to the thermodynamic potential and what we’ve already seen, grace has not lacked intense convection through its journey in the Caribbean

Yep. I believe we have a hurricane incoming

Grace has struggled mightily at organizing a coherent core it’s entire life. Even this recon mission shows the center of circulation is weak and embedded in what by all accounts looks like a wave envelope. Would not shock me to see several center reformations as it interacts with Jamaica. Until that happens, the very gradual strengthening we’ve seen last 24hrs would be all I’d forecast heading into the Yucatán. Strange system, overall environment would usually indicate a stronger system than what we’re seeing.

Henri looks very healthy this morning. Still feeling effects of some northwesterly shear, but the system has a vigorous mid level center seen clearly in the intense convective envelope it developed overnight and with morning visible it does not seem to be too far displaced from the llc. Given the current look, it would not shock me to see this small system ramp up quickly today, maybe becoming a hurricane

Picked up 2.21” over last few days. Sitting at 3.65” for the month. Edit: additional rainfall of 0.08” today brings our monthly total to 3.73”. Currently 77.4 with spitting rain

As expected, intensity guidance has really increased this cycle.

Kinda validates the low SFMR readings even with relatively high FL wind barbs. Some bouy observations have shown 50-60 mph sustained winds though

That dry air wrapping in will likely shut off the convection over the llc, similar to what happened yesterday before the overnight blowup. I think Fred had a chance to become a hurricane but that has likely passed. It could certainly generate another burst right before landfall but given the environment and current structure with the feed of dry air from the SW shear, the current convective burst is likely peaked and should be relatively short lived. Overall a solid TS though and very much a formidable system, especially compared to yesterday and the past week

It was a great storm for sure, we really haven’t had any good thunderstorms this year so this was welcome

Atlantic storms are just struggling this year. I’m sure it will change. Land interaction, dry air, moving too quickly, shear, anything that can hamper storm development has to this point

Wow, this storm makes a lackluster storm season a little better for sure. Power went out a few times, likely lightning strikes. Felt like we were under attack from the heavens. Still going strong. Going to make a run at 2” here shortly

Best storm of the year right now. Edit: Wind gusts probably 40-45, torrential rain, and absolutely non stop lightning. Still going strong, did not expect this today

Always a possibility at these low latitudes

Convectively at the moment, Grace looks well on its way to becoming a hurricane. Fast motion is the only roadblock at the moment. Might have a window in next 36 hours.

I think it’s a prerequisite these days that every single storm in the Atlantic at some point has it’s center modeled to be over Tampa bay, but it never actually happens

I don’t want to see this thread 36 hours from now if “Fred” maintains its current form during that period

A broad area of 5 kts of wind…

Also, the storms that keep getting mentioned in this thread are more related to the influx of tropical moisture interacting with a trough than what remains of Fred, though I guess by default Fred’s moisture is somewhat responsible

I still haven’t seen a definitive center today, the low level cloud swirl this morning still didn’t have defined west winds. There’s radar and everything is moving some kind of west. This is a wave, NHC has not downgraded just for purposes of continuity expecting it to redevelop, which I do understand

Really struggling to see Fred as a cyclone this morning. Whatever remnant circulation seems to be strung out and devoid of convection.

That was an all-timer