NorthHillsWx

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 245 AM Tuesday... The forecast for today looks quite different than it did 24 hours ago, or even 12 hours ago. The stalled front that has been across the eastern Carolinas for the last few days will still be the main player in the forecast, but all models, synoptic and convection- allowing, have shifted the front farther east. While this will still result in extensive cloud cover and cool temperatures across the region, it will bring a lower chance of rain to every location west of I-95. Pops will be the highest across western counties between sunrise and noon before diminishing as the shortwave moves east. However, the entire precipitation shield should be shifted east since the frontal boundary will be farther east. Across an area from Burlington to Raleigh and Roanoke Rapids, have dropped pops down to chance through the daytime. While the previous forecast kept a slight chance of thunderstorms across southern counties during the day, and an isolated elevated thunderstorm could still occur, did not have enough confidence to keep thunder in the forecast anymore, with barely any instability present in model profiles. Similar to today`s forecast, models keep the forecast quite dry tonight west of I-95. Pops were cut everywhere, and likely were not cut enough, considering how little precipitation is shown by the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and HREF, especially in the Triad. Lows will be in the mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 AM Tuesday... The changes to Wednesday`s forecast were not as dramatic as the changes to today`s forecast, but nonetheless pops were cut once again as the front will be closer to the coast. There are minimal areas with likely pops east of I-95, but otherwise chance pops will rule the day. Highs will inch up slightly, rising into the mid to upper 70s. Expect little change Wednesday night, with chance pops and lows once again in the mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 320 AM Tuesday... Rain chances Thursday and Friday should largely remain confined to eastern/coastal NC, INVOF the weakening surface front that will remain pinned along the coast, with little of the way of PoPs west of I-95. As of right now, it appears that the best chance for rain area-wide will be on Saturday, owing to the approach of the mid/upper level trough. Thereafter, rain chances will primarily be diurnally driven. Well, our guaranteed rainfall this week has been changed to a hard “maybe.” Pretty crazy to see models go from 2-4 inches in the triangle for the week to some now showing absolutely nothing in the matter of just a couple days. Feels like snowstorm tracking! At least the cool air is a guaranteed lock!

You mean outer banks, it’s really really dried out west of 17. Actually has less than an inch for 95 west through triangle through the end of the run. We’ll see, last week looked like a lock for most areas in central NC picking up a couple inches now looks to be much more limited

More action that us, no rain here. Have had some nice cooling outflow breezes

Same here. Over the last 13 days we’ve seemingly missed out from every direction, more recently just to our east. Only 0.16” in that timespan from one storm that fringed up and a brief shower the other day. Amazing how quickly it can dry out this time of year when it’s in the 90’s everyday

Highest temp was 97.5 for July Monthly precip was 6.56” but the vast majority of that fell in 2 events, it’s been quite dry the last two weeks.

Well, our luck ran out. 97.5 for the high today, hottest day of the year and first reading in the upper 90’s. No sugarcoating this heatwave, it’s brutal out. Thankfully the humidity mixed out some, our maximum heat index today was 102.1

8am with a heat index of 87.6. Can already tell where this day is going. Get ready to fry

Currently 90.9 with a HI of 102.6. High today was 92.5 earlier. Thankfully we have avoided high 90’s this year (so far). Sitting at 6.56” for the month, but been a slow pick here last 10 days with just 0.16 in that time

94.3 today, hottest reading of the year. No rain, but a lot of thunder this afternoon

Picked up 0.02” from a brief shower this afternoon. High of 92.9 before clouds moved in. Hot hot hot

I agree, I also think dropping the mask guidance in the first place was the wrong decision. They set themselves up for failure and convincing people to go back is going to be much, much more difficult. This is a PR nightmare. Should have been more cautious and should have waited until it was certain. Delta variant was already present when they dropped masking guidance

Looks like the CDC is backtracking on its mask guidance for vaccinated people today. This plague is far from over

90L is actually looking a little better this morning inland and actually has a little better model support as it moves back offshore

Picked up 0.14” early this morning. MTD 6.54” Edit: some ridiculous radar estimates from near Dunn and Princeton last night. 6-7.5” and a continuing aerial flood warning. Wow

Currently 89.4. Made it to 92.1 before some clouds moved in. Sultry dew point of 75.2 is leading to a miserable heat index of 99.9. Where this 60% chance of rain coming from? I see nothing remotely close to triangle area. Another week without rain if we miss out tonight. Just very fortunate our rains we have had have been substantial bc they haven’t been consistent at all

Since Monday, this weeks weather can be summed up as: partly cloudy, highs 85-90 lows 68-73. Rainfall: 0.00”

I had covid back in first half of last year but had no symptoms besides lack of energy and lack of taste but I got the Pfizer shot in may and it was pretty bad for me. No sleep for 2 nights, body aches, and absolutely no energy. This was all after the second shot. However, after about 36 hours, it all went away quickly. My wife did not get covid and had very few symptoms with either of her shots. I have heard it’s worse for some reason if you’ve already had it before getting the vaccine? Not sure the science there, but glad ya got it! Sure am glad I did with the delta variant entrenched

BORING WEATHER SUCKS

0.60” looks to be our daily total. 6.40” for the month now

Much more tame here in Raleigh. 0.23” overnight and this morning for a total of 0.30” since yesterday. This does bring our monthly total to 6.03” so this is the second straight month of at least 6” here

Pretty pathetic 0.07” today. We stayed in the rain hole all day. 5.80” for the month

Raleigh’s rain chances have been dropped to 40% (from 80%) for today and to 60% (from 80%) for tonight and Monday. Tuesday is now 50% (was 60%). You get the picture…

Felicia’s days are numbered, but it definitely defied modeling and dry air with light shear, annular hurricanes are amazing specimens. They are almost completely self sustaining when shear remains light, even completely wrapped by a dry environment. Would have LOVED to see some radar images from this storm

Just an incredibly impressive storm. Perfectly symmetrical 120 kt storm still this morning

Well, we were shutout. 0.02” for the week