NorthHillsWx

Really scary for anyone buying clown snow accumulation maps outside the mountains…

Raleigh crowd is so sick and tired of a meaningless novelty glaze of ice to 34 degrees and miserable cold rain that they have nothing left to say about it on a weather forum. I’m just here for the rest of y’all and the fact this is still a major storm even if my backyard looks like a prison soup Sunday afternoon

The storm it has modeled at this time off the coast is literally right where we want it right now haha

The best way to forecast winter events anywhere in the Carolina’s is to find the model with the warmest mid levels and roll with that

This one interests me a lot. For one, it’s a southern stream system. We are not relying on the northern stream to dump it far enough south. Also, it has ample cold air to work with. And for now, there appears to be blocking showing up north of it. As good a long range look as you can ask for at this point. Hopefully we start to see some agreement in the coming days

My Snow Call: Anderson, SC to Raleigh: up to 1” of snow/sleet. 1/4” ice or less. Change to plain rain Clemson-Greenville-Charlotte-Greensboro: 1-4” of snow/sleet. 1/4-1/2” ice (maybe a small finger of higher totals). Eastern areas may change to rain but may also switch to light backside snow Clayton, Ga-statesvill/hickory-Winston Salem: this is the biggest battleground with snow and sleet. Also biggest range of possible accumulation. I’m going 4-8” with the potential for less due to sleet compaction. Sensibly I think the lower end of that range is more likely but if that front end is truly a thump I think 8” is possible Foothills including Asheville: 6-10” with some sleet mixing Mountains: 10-16” highest on peaks. There could be some mixing issues even here but I think cold air and heavy rates with high ratios at the beginning and end will allow this to be a major snow storm regardless My forecast confidence: High- we’ve seen these storms a billion times Where it could go wrong: foothills to I-85 is my biggest question mark. I really think with the screaming 850 jet out of the east the mixing will occur faster than modeled, so it’s a matter of how much snow comes before the mix. In the Raleigh to Anderson areas, how long does the sub freezing air hang on, and can we approach warning level ice? In the ice storm areas, where does the narrow ribbon of extreme ice (over 1/2”) setup exactly? Not a “fun storm” but been fun tracking. Good luck to those in the snow areas and hopefully power stays on for everyone

We buy

That was the only coup that model has ever pulled. I remember this board all got excited about it after that, but it has been straight trash since. I am not sure what combination of atmospheric conditions allowed it to nail thar storm, but good lord it locked it in for days before most everything else caught on

From what I’ve seen I’d say 12z overall trended slightly colder for most areas. CAD is also under modeled most of the time by the globals and I think the NAM is too juiced with precip. I’d undercut temps by a couple degrees based on what you’re seeing in the GFS for many areas especially in the afternoon

I disagree, without that northern push that warm nose would not make it as far north or be as strong for our area and we’d see more snow and then sleet but yea, glad we won’t ice for too long at home

Straight trash for sure

The low cutting east across South Carolina then due north to DC is a CRAZY storm track and a huge middle finger to many of us especially the triangle

Always cut totals. If temps are in 20’s there will be more sleet. If temps are near freezing it will not accumulate fast. The self-limiting nature of freezing rain is not modeled well and is always too high on every model

^^^ this

One thing to note- when precip arrives in the triangle it’s 24-25 degrees. Rarely and I do mean rarely do we get above freezing with precip falling and temps that low unless the SLP is directly over or west of us. I think if that setup occurred we’d struggle to get above freezing

Well well well, the Gfs, Euro and their ensembles both trended positively in their last runs. Maybe the bleeding has stopped

Watch on the ICON as the upper low over the GL slingshots the storm inland and up the coast. In my opinion, that’s the main culprit at play causing this to tend poorly. As modeled that upper low is quite strong on the ICON. It literally pulls the system into its broad circulation

Rule 1) Don’t trust long range NAM

Seeing improvement in the Euro op was great but seeing a positive trend in EPS is better. If anything, the NW trend abated. Hopefully the happy hour will reel us back in

Verbatim the Euro is a MAJOR winter storm for most on this sub forum including the triangle even though some areas go to plain rain. This won’t be a pure snow event for very many people but this could be a serious winter storm and that shouldn’t be understated. Euro kept the BL temps below freezing and had slightly cooler mid levels for piedmont areas than 6Z and 0Z. I think the WAA was slightly muted with a slightly less amped system. HP and overall setup didn’t change much

12z Euro is first run in a while to trend slightly weaker/further east. Maybe the NW trend has abated and we’ll settle into something between what we had the other day and this morning

The problem is this wasn’t one run, this was what looked like a perfect setup for days. It’s completely changed in 48 hours. Not just type of storm (Miller A to Miller B ) or track (Carolina’s, to gulf coast, to Tennessee valley to split low) or timing (Saturday to now Sunday into Monday) or precip (light strung out solutions to amped wet solutions) or low pressure track due east to now cutting inland up the east coast. Essentially these are HUGE changes in 48 hours. Pattern recognition and storm fruition are two totally different beasts but outside 4 days I don’t think a single model had a solution even remotely close to what we’re seeing now. This may rain all the way to NYC and Boston whereas 2 days ago we weren’t even talking precip there way and it had snow in orangeburg. I get model runs change but these have been drastic

I’d take some of those strung out all-snow 2-4” from the mountains to the coast solutions from a couple days ago about now

Raleigh folks- sorry. The Miller B solution is not going to work well for us. Looking like it’ll be hard to keep snow for anyone outside the mountains/foothills

Always